Archive for the ‘economics’ Category

Inflation

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

Total sales are rising ten percent a year in nominal terms.    Surprise surprise, shadowstats estimates ten percent inflation per year if we use the measure of inflation that was used in the the 1980s.    Hawaiian Libertarian reports that that is pretty much what he is seeing when he puts his money down.

So what is the true rate of inflation?

There is no one true rate of inflation, since to estimate inflation, one has to compare apples and oranges, and there is no one valid way of doing this.

But if inflation is substantially less than ten percent a year, we are consuming substantially more goods this year than last year.  Do you think we are consuming substantially more goods this year than last year?

But whatever the true rate of inflation might be, it is increasing.  It is not increasing fast as I expected, not increasing very fast at all.  It is increasing at about two percent a year, so if this year inflation was not ten percent, but eight percent, next year it will be ten percent a year, and the year after that, twelve percent a year.  The rate at which prices increase, is itself increasing.

This does not sound all that terrifying, but recall that hyperinflation begins as the collapse of a paper bubble.  Everyone wakes up one morning realizing that inflation is a lot higher than they thought and will only get worse, so they all try to unload their paper at the same time for tangibles:  Land in productive use, gold, ammo, guns, non perishable food items, alcohol,  and suchlike, also overseas non tangible assets, paper assets regulated by solvent governments.

Only to discover that they cannot all unload their paper money at the same time.

If the rate of inflation is high and increasing, sooner or later, it suddenly starts to increase a lot faster.  Suppose inflation this year was seven percent, then next year it will nine percent, which is not imminent doom.  If people are not panicking today, they are unlikely to panic tomorrow. The end is not nigh.  But the end, nonetheless, is in sight.

 

Steyn nails it:

Friday, February 3rd, 2012

Our Sick State:

I don’t quite know what you’d call these rituals, but the term “private health-care system” doesn’t seem the most obvious fit. Indeed, as in so many other areas of American life — the Fannie-Freddied mortgage market, the six-figure college education — the main purpose of these dysfunctional labyrinths ever more disconnected from any genuinely free market seems to be to discredit the very concept of a “private” system and thus soften up the electorate for statist fixes.

In free, functioning societies, it ought to be easy to buy a bottle of pills. The fact that it isn’t is one reason why America has a real bad headache.

if you price your time, even if you price it at kind of minimum wage, the amount of time it takes, this is my problem, that everywhere you look now, you’re seeing a remorseless transfer of time, and time is money, of time and money from the productive class to the kind of bureaucratic sclerosis class.

In a previous post of mine, I observe that the US health care system is socialism without a central plan, and capitalism without markets or prices. Obama is not socializing it. He is making it more socialist than it was.

Manufactured spectacle at Oakland

Tuesday, January 31st, 2012

The police toss smoke grenades, not tear gas grenades, a short distance upwind, between themselves and the protestors.

This is not riot control, it is a manufactured photo opportunity

spectacle

Manufacturing the appearance of significance

Observe the hand motion.  He is tossing a smoke grenade just in front, not at the protestors.  If you are wondering how heavily outnumbered protestors accomplished their goal  of occupying the city hall, despite announcing it at least a day in advance, the above photo explains the inexplicable.

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Why Bernanke is not panicking

Sunday, January 29th, 2012

The stimulus is finally taking effect.  As Zimbabwe and the Wiemar Republic demonstrate, one thing that governments armed with the ability to print fiat money really can do is stimulate.

From 2009 May to 2011 November total business sales in dollars rose twenty six percent, ten percent a year, which to me, though not to Bernanke, looks like good reason to scream panic and hit the brakes, to raise real interest rates to at least normal levels, and arguably higher. (more…)

Ben Bernanke pledges to throw gasoline on the fire

Thursday, January 26th, 2012

Bernanke pledges to keep interest rates low for at least the next two years – meaning real interest are several percent negative.  Large negative interest rates rapidly lead to economic crisis.

“The low level of inflation is a validation,” Bernanke said. “There are some who were very concerned that our balance-sheet policies and the like would lead to high inflation. There’s certainly no sign of that yet.”

Really?  Sales have gone up ten percent in nominal value, which only makes sense if the real rate of inflation is seven to ten percent.  The US economy is on fire, and Bernanke pledges to continue throwing gasoline on the flames. (more…)

Inflationary crisis?

Thursday, January 19th, 2012

According to the US census, estimated monthly sales have gone up ten percent in dollars between 2010 November and 2011 November.  Have living standards gone up?  Clearly living standards are falling.  Total physical volume of goods shipped by rail has been falling over the past year, consistent with the general experience of falling living standards.  Can anyone explain what is going on?  This looks to me like slightly worse than ten percent year on year inflation, which is the inflation rate at which a significant risk of panicked flight from paper money sets in.  Am I misreading these numbers in some silly way?

There is a lot of ruin in a nation.  I have been predicting that we will probably not see hyperinflationary collapse for several years.  I find this data surprising and confusing. Either we are booming, or we are inflating, and it does not feel like we are booming.

The latest evil from Google

Wednesday, January 18th, 2012

Google has recently been nailed in two more scandals: cold calling ignorant Kenyans with a scam offer and scary lies about Google’s competitor, and vandalizing open source maps which competes with Google Maps.

While Google is wonderfully politically correct, and would never dream of suggesting that black people are stupid, the scam service they are selling in Kenya is predicated on the assumption that black people are stupid.
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Mitt Romneycare, enemy of capitalism

Thursday, January 12th, 2012

Mitt Romneycare tells us:

In the general election I’ll be pointing out that the president took the reins at General Motors and Chrysler – closed factories, closed dealerships laid off thousands and thousands of workers – he did it to try to save the business.

Now that is an unusual strategy for winning elections. (more…)

Economic Decline

Wednesday, January 11th, 2012

The BLS is arguably understating inflation and unemployment. (more…)

Ron Paul, only non leftist left standing

Wednesday, January 4th, 2012

The three major candidates are Governor Romneycare, the man who provided the model for Obamacare, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum.

Rick Santorum’s nephew tells us:

When Republicans were spending so much money under President Bush, my uncle was right there along with them

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