Archive for the ‘economics’ Category

Bitcoin failure

Sunday, June 15th, 2014

For bitcoin to work politically, authority over the currency needs to be distributed over a large group of peers. If power is concentrated at a single point, the state can dominate that point, whoever controls that point can steal other people’s currency and do a variety of bad things.

Bitcoin was designed so that “voting” depended on computing power and network connection. Initially, almost everyone who had a client was a miner, there were a huge number of miners, everyone who used bitcoin had roughly equal influence because they contributed roughly equal computing power to the block chain.

Today, bitcoin is controlled by by a single miner., which was a predictable consequence of bitcoin’s scaling problems.

What we need is a crypto currency which is controlled by the top one hundred or so owners of the currency that are well connected to the net and have adequate computing power, with influence over the currency proportional to the amount of currency that they own, rather than the number of cycles that they burn.

In principle it should be possible to do this using bilinear maps, but the details are a bit tricky, because we have to make sure that manageable number of votes reflects an infinitely divisible currency whose ownership changes continually. So the shares (private and public keys in groups with a bilinear map) have to be reissued frequently, while ownership of the infinitely divisible currency is given value by the fact that if you own a lot of it, you get shares proportional to the amount you own. Since shareholders are people who own a lot of currency, they have an incentive to not misbehave, to continue to reissue shares according to currency ownership and validate transactions according to the rules, since to do otherwise would destroy the value of the currency that they own.

The number of shares remains manageably small, however many people use the currency and however many transactions take place. The shares underlie the value of the currency – and absolutely nothing underlies the value of the shares. Of course we still have other scaling problems, to which I have not figured out a solution except in alarmingly vague outline.

Why women need to kept on leashes

Wednesday, May 7th, 2014

A software company just went bust.  Happens a lot.  That a woman happened to be running this company is not significant.  Lots of men have lost lots of other people’s money too.  What is significant is that she starts off her explanation of how she pissed away all her investor’s money by talking about her sex life.

She begins:

Something wasn’t right, and I couldn’t put my finger on exactly what it was. On the surface, it seemed like I had the best life. A popular blog with millions of readers. The perfect relationship with Brian, the most adoring fiance in the universe.

Adoring Fiance is girl code for The man I am about to cheat on and then dump. If a woman says her fiancee adores her, she is cruising for a dicking.  If she is not cruising for a dicking, she tells us she adores her fiancee, not that he adores her.

Then, one day, a few weeks ago, an event happened (I’ll save the details of that for some other time.) Suddenly a torrent of emotions poured in. I was overwhelmed. I stayed home from work one day–my best friend Erica sent me some poetry, and I just cried. I wept. It felt like my soul was pouring out of me, one tear at a time.

I reeled from the onslaught of emotions for days, and soon thereafter, I broke off my relationship with Brian.

And, by the way, forgot about running the company she was supposed to be running, with the result that the paychecks bounced and the investors lost all their money, but that, not being very important to her does not get much mention, even though the people she is addressing, the investors, are likely to be more interested in that part.

Here is what I guess happened, interpolating between My adoring fiancee  onslaught of emotions, and payroll.

My adoring fiancee

She fucked some bad boy, Mr Very Wrong.  After Mr Very Wrong was done, he kicked her out of his room and soon thereafter called the next girl on his booty call list.

onslaught of emotions

She dumped her fiancee and forgot about her business so as to be fully available in case the next booty call came.   And the next booty call did not come.

payroll.

Payroll.

Technological decline

Sunday, April 27th, 2014

If we cannot build high buildings any more, progressives say we are now so sophisticated that we are now superior to status competition based on giant penis substitutes, and status competition based on having a higher corner office than the other business executives.

If high art is an aids infested trannie projectile vomiting over the audience, progressives say that we philistines just don’t get high art.

But the most important thing about a military aircraft is that it can fly faster, higher, and further than its opponents, so that you can get away from enemies, but enemies cannot get away from you.  And of these, the most important by far is to fly faster, so that you can bring trouble to your enemies, but your enemies cannot bring trouble to you.

SR 71 Blackbird, first built in 1972, about the time we put the last man on the moon.

Cruising Speed Mach 3.2
Ceiling 85 000 feet
Range 3 200 nautical miles

Today’s latest and greatest American warplane, the impressively named F-35 Lightning II. Does not that sound so much more impressive than “Blackbird”?

Cruising Speed Mach 1.6
Ceiling 60 000 feet
Range 1 200 nautical miles nautical miles

So let us make a little table:

Capability Then Now
Speed Mach 3.2 Mach 1.6
Ceiling 85 000 feet 60 000 feet
Range 3 200 nautical miles 1200 nautical miles

(more…)

Raising fertility

Sunday, April 20th, 2014

Singapore has terminal fertility – a fertility rate so low that it is likely to end Singapore. Smart people go to Singapore, and just do not reproduce. Black hole dysgenesis. The Singaporean government has issued a bunch of laws and incentives intended to raise fertility, with rather small effect.

Similarly, the emperor Augustus, noticing that Romans were on a similar path to oblivion, passed a bunch of laws to encourage marriage and fertility, with similar lack of effect.

I have a lot of hope in Singapore as a place where technologically advanced civilization might continue as the rest of the world slowly slides into another dark age, but that is not going to happen if Singaporeans do not reproduce (more…)

Firing Kathleen Sebelius

Sunday, April 13th, 2014

Everyone involved in the disastrous rollout of the disastrous Obamacare website has been fired or has had something horribly bad happen to their careers, from Human Health and Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius downwards. It turns out that people working for the government, like people with tenure, can be punished by the left, though not by the right.

If ever the right should try to fire people, see my post on how to fire big bird.

The website was fixed by “the tech surge” – fixed by white males organized in teams that showed very little interest in providing a supportive environment for women and people of color. The screw up was primarily female. Being PC, they had women work on a website and of course the website did not work. Men had to come in and take over.  (more…)

The trouble with white nationalism

Sunday, March 30th, 2014

is that it is demotic. The trouble with our brahmins is that they are demotic.

If, seeking power, you propose to give all white people a microslice of power, you will be outbid by those seeking power who propose to give everyone a microslice of power.

White nationalism is moderate leftism, and moderate leftism will always be outbid by immoderate leftism

Today’s white nationalism is yet another variant on the Republican program of backing away from the left singularity in infinitesimally tiny steps. This runs contrary to the natural ever leftwards dynamic, so always turns into program for heading into the left singularity at a slightly slower pace which in turn turns into a program for heading into the left singularity at an ever accelerating pace – mainstream republicanism.

White nationalism, being demotic, tends to become national socialism. National socialism kills people not because it is nationalist, but because it is socialist.

It is necessary to apply different laws to different people on the basis of superficial characteristics. For example a black man taking certain drugs is overwhelmingly likely to be markedly more dangerous than a white man taking the same drugs. So, in practice, we have very restrictive laws that are theoretically applied to everyone, but are, in practice, applied selectively – the alternative to racially aware enforcement being suicide.

Would it not be a lot fairer to openly issue identity cards, and openly have different laws for different groups, with some groups having laws that were simpler, harsher, more restrictive, and more swiftly enforced?

Of course that would be fairer, more just, more effective, than our current hypocritical system.

And if we had that, would not white nationalism be part of the air you breathed, so that all whites would be white nationalist without thinking about it or being aware of it?

Obviously it would. And obviously that is the system that we used to have. We used to all be unthinkingly and naturally race nationalist, the alternative being obviously stupid and suicidal. And we drifted away from that system, replacing it with elaborate hypocrisy and pretense, because white nationalism is leftist, and Cthulhu swims always left.

You can move leftwards from that system to socialism, and wind up murdering people by the truckload, or move leftwards from that system to what we have now, and white people wind up being ethnically cleansed. On the whole, the latter leftwards movement is markedly preferable to the former leftwards movement.

Whites are not naturally a tribe. To make them a tribe, you would need an identitarian religion. That religion would have to become the state religion, and then forcibly convert all whites to that state religion.

But state religions that forcibly convert everyone are intolerably oppressive, and tend to have extremely bad economic effects. A more workable program is what we have now, where the official religion is high status, all deviations from it are low status, and if you want to get a job in government, or quasi government, or go to the more prestigious universities you have to pretend to subscribe to the official religion.

Now if we had an identitarian religion, and it was the state religion, then after a few hundred years or so, nearly all whites would subscribe to it, much as they subscribe to our current official state religion, and then rule of that religion would effectively be white nationalism.

But, lacking such a religion, whites lack tribal identity, so white nationalism will always fail the way it has already failed.

Been there, done that, prohibited from wearing the t-shirt.

We tried going back to the 1950s, time to try 1660.

Recap on Warmism

Friday, March 14th, 2014

I have been ignoring the issue of Global Warming for a while, because it is pretty much settled.  Anyone who still believes in Warmism is stupid, crazy, or lying.  Usually stupid.

But, a short summary: (more…)

Exhaustion of the low hanging fruit, or moral decay?

Monday, March 10th, 2014

Photolithography is limited by the wavelength of light.  Below 160 nanometers, UV is not light, but ionizing radiation.  So at some point, have to switch from photolithography to contact lithography, such as imprint lithography, or direct contact printing.  But did they stop shrinking stuff before we reached that limit? That they are lying about it suggests moral decay, rather than exhaustion of the low hanging fruit.

Current photolithography is stuck using UV at 193 nanometers.  Could they have gone lower?

Nitrogen and fused quartz, which they are already using, is good down to 160 nanometers.  They are using water for their high refractive index fluid, and water becomes opaque below 193.  Perfluorocarbons, however are good all the way down to 160 nanometers.  So they did not push current technology to its final limit.  It was not exhaustion of the low hanging fruit that caused the current alarmingly indefinite pause in Moore’s law.

My prediction is that if humans resume technological advance, will resume in China, and will resume using contact lithography or direct contact printing, as there is little point in recreating from scratch a technology that has reached its ultimate limit.  And if humans don’t resume technological and scientific advance, it will be a long, slow, painful and messy descent into a dark age, until harsh conditions cause natural selection to resume.

The USG immigration problem

Monday, February 17th, 2014

The problem is that people we are allowing in have too much power over us. Also, most of them are stupid people, and when their children go to school, the Cathedral teaches them to hate us and attack us.

When nonwhites have the majority, whites will be a market dominant minority, like Jews or overseas Chinese. In nonwhite countries, market dominant minorities seldom exist, because they get exterminated or expelled. In the middle east, sometimes enslaved.

Smart fraction theory implies that intelligence primarily produces externalities, benefits for other people.

Thus, people of below average intelligence produce large negative externalities.

The policy of the King of Dubai, assuming that policy to reflect the best interests of an undeniably able monarch, indicates that even when stupid people are not allowed welfare, not allowed to vote, are subject to an ironfisted law enforcement system that completely eliminates the kind of crimes that stupid people might commit, are subject to the iron fisted control of employers, who may at any moment expel their employees back to their home countries to face the horrors of those governments that they democratically elected, even with all that, stupid people still have substantial negative externalities. (more…)

Working class consciousness

Sunday, February 16th, 2014

Working Class consciousness (in other words envy and covetousness) runs into economics: “The Chamley-Judd Redistribution Impossibility Theorem” which tells us that redistribution from capitalists to workers is impossible, and trying to do so merely buggers the economy making everyone worse off.

This conflict between reality and ideology brings you nazism and communism.

The Chamley-Judd Redistribution Impossibility theorem is economists admitting Ayn Rand was right while trying to sound as if they are not admitting it. The economy needs savings, investment, and entrepreneurship. Entrepreneurs will arrange to get a good chunk of the wealth produced, and if you try to stop them, you will discourage, or altogether stop, savings, investment and entrepreneurship.

You try to distribute from the capitalists to the workers, and somehow it does not happen. Obviously an evil conspiracy. So you round up the usual suspects. Somehow, this fails to work. Obviously the conspiracy must be bigger than you thought. So you round up everyone vaguely connected to the usual suspects. And you wind up killing them.

Yes, there are perfectly real conspiracies, as the previous post reveals, and some of them, such as the one revealed in the previous post, contain a curiously large proportion of Jews, but this is not what causes economic differences between capitalists and workers. The usual object of conspiracy is political power. This causes economic inequality between people in political power and people out of political power, but other forms of inequality are more resistant to politics, and attempts to politicize other forms of inequality will have disastrous effects.

The inequality between Jewish tax farmers and the peasants had political origins and was reasonably answered by political measures against tax farming. The inequality between Jewish Estate managers and the people who worked on those estates, the inequality between Jewish money lenders and European borrowers, and the inequality between Jewish vodka merchants and Russian drunks did not have political origins, hence trying to remedy it results in you killing the Jews, not to mention capitalists, kulaks, foreign educated intellectuals, and whatnot. And after they are killed, your peasants are still screwed. Indeed they are even more screwed.

Hence successful official belief systems prohibit this fallacy. Believing it gets punished by social disapproval and exclusion from the levers of political power.