Bryan Caplan wants people to go on record predicting the future of Egypt before the future becomes apparent, as compared to our usual procedure of claiming one knew all along afterward.
As I said before, democracy with universal franchise does not work. It works worse with Muslims. No Muslim should be allowed to vote anywhere, especially in countries with substantial numbers of Muslims.
Egypt might get another dictator like Mubarak, but if it gets democracy, will suffer war and economic disaster, both of which will be blamed on Jews. Egyptian democracy will at best resemble Indonesian democracy: economic decay, quiet tolerance of terrorism against the west, with some arrests of those who terrorize westerners, but reluctant foot dragging in arresting them and slap on the wrist sentences in the unlikely event they get arrested, semi open tolerance of terrorism and mass violence against local infidels. At worst they will elect a government that thinks that everyone who voted against them are apostates who need their heads cut off, and that most of those who voted for them are also apostates who need their heads cut off, but most likely will elect something in between, somewhat resembling Hamas. Egypt will not officially abandon the peace agreement with Israel, but will abandon it in reality.