Finally, some one else does the maths on oil

I am continually puzzled by the world’s chronic inability to do basic arithmetic, but I see that econbrowser has done the maths on oil.

There are a lot of people in China.  There are no longer large political obstacles to competent and industrious people in China making money.  Therefore, very soon, a lot of Chinese will be making a lot of money.  Therefore China will soon be consuming an enormous amount of oil.  Econbrowser concludes China will soon be consuming a lot more oil than is ever likely to come out of the ground.

Therefore the price of oil will rise without limit until coal to oil and nuclear to hydrogen fills the gap.  And right now, coal to oil projects are insignificant, and nuclear to hydrogen is not even on the drawing board.  Therefore in the next decade or so, oil will rise to astonishing heights, far above present prices.


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