Private oil companies and speculators have modeled government oil companies, socialist oil, as if socialists were rational actors driven by economic self interest - which I could have told them was a very bad model. Socialist oil is 93% of oil production.

One problem is that the oil rigs are for the most part stolen, and are therefore neglected and deteriorating, even though it would profit the thieves to upgrade them and apply the most modern technology.

Another problem is that high oil prices not only motivate people to extract oil from nature, but to steal oil from people - high oil prices result in increased activity by tyrants, demagogues, terrorists, and bandits, which tends to reduce oil production. Thus production is apt to diminish as a result of higher prices.