According to polls, Palin’s Support for a Candidate Doesn’t Matter or Is Mostly Negative, yet we observe that in practice that when Palin endorses a candidate that is way behind, that candidate shoots up in the polls, and quite often wins.
There are several possible explanations of this
- People tend to give politically correct replies to polls, rather than what they genuinely believe.
- Republican party activists do what Palin tells them to do, and republican party voters do what republican party activists tell them to do.
- A nobody cannot beat a somebody. Get Palin’s endorsement, you are no longer a nobody, you are a serious candidate, the one to beat.
I suspect all of these explanations are true.