Stagflation

The US economy faces recession: To stimulate the economy, the fed is lowering interest to near zero and the government handing out six hundred dollars to everyone.

But what the US faces is not recession, but stagflation, and handing out free money is not the cure for stagflation.

Stagflation was first observed in the first great fiat money inflation of modern times, the French assignat.

The more assignats they printed, the worse the shortage of assignats became. They would double the number of assignats in circulation, and prices would quadruple!

You could not buy, because the seller did not trust your money, and you could not sell, because the buyer did not have money that you could trust. You could not borrow, nor could you lend, for the lender knew his money would be worthless when returned.

To cure stagflation, the Fed must give people confidence in money, and confidence in financial intermediaries. You create confidence in money by firmly refusing to issue more of it, and confidence in financial intermediaries by ensuring that those financial intermediaries that have misbehaved become bankrupt or go to jail, as appropriate.

Moral hazard:

Financiers know that if they misbehave, the Federal Reserve will print money and give it to them in return for worthless collateral. Public knows that when the central bank prints money, its value diminishes, and thus the public become reluctant to sell, and unable to buy. Hence stagflation.

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