Bored with Game of Thrones

April 8th, 2014

I used to be a huge fan of Game of Thrones. Attempted to watch the latest episode, Season four episode one, gave up when we got introduced to some bad guys in the occupation army harassing the North. I don’t care about those people. They can rape the northerners all they want. Fine by me. Most of the northerners I cared about got killed off.

Lately the show assumes that the viewers sincerely feel universalism, and that universalism, caring about far away strangers, is the measure of virtue, that we will like people who supposedly care about far away strangers. Not working on me. I don’t care about those people. I wonder if it works on anyone?

Since Tyrion Lannister has turned from a capable and decent medieval nobleman into a thoroughly wimpy and gelded women’s rights respecting twenty first century male feminist mangina I have stopped caring about him also. Similarly, when the Daenerys Stormborn, daughter of dragons, mother of dragons, turned from being a hot sorceress bent on conquering the world and restoring the magic, to a do gooder abolitionist, aiming to abolish slavery, rather than become a magical queen of a world in which the magic is renewed, she became boring and unpleasant. Every time the viewers see her going forth to free yet more slaves, the viewers are disappointed. It is not just me, I also see complaints in the youtube comments. Let me know when she cuts loose with the dragon magic to make herself queen. Read the rest of this entry »

Watt’s big list of failed global warming predictions

April 3rd, 2014

Watt has a big list of failed global warming predictions.  None have been fulfilled, many of them have been falsified.

Here is the subset of Watt’s list that has been clearly and obviously falsified.

May 15, 1989, Associated Press: “Using computer models, researchers concluded that global warming would raise average annual temperatures nationwide [USA] two degrees by 2010.”

1988 Rob Reiss asked official Climate Scientist Dr. James Hansen how the greenhouse effect was likely to affect the neighborhood below Hansen’s office in NYC in the next 20 years, whereupon Climate scientist James Hansen issues this prediction, to be fullfilled in 20 years, which is to say, doom by 2008: “The West Side Highway [which runs along the Hudson River] will be under water. And there will be tape across the windows across the street because of high winds. And the same birds won’t be there. The trees in the median strip will change….There will be more police cars….[since] you know what happens to crime when the heat goes up.”

Michael Oppenheimer, 1990, The Environmental Defense Fund: “By 1995, the greenhouse effect would be desolating the heartlands of North America and Eurasia with horrific drought, causing crop failures and food riots…”(By 1996) The Platte River of Nebraska would be dry, while a continent-wide black blizzard of prairie topsoil will stop traffic on interstates, strip paint from houses and shut down computers…The Mexican police will round up illegal American migrants surging into Mexico seeking work as field hands.”

June 11, 1986, Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) in testimony to Congress (according to the Milwaukee Journal): “Hansen predicted global temperatures should be nearly 2 degrees higher in 20 years, ‘which is about the warmest the earth has been in the last 100,000 years.’” (prediction for 2006)

June 8, 1972, Christian Science Monitor: “Arctic specialist Bernt Balchen says a general warming trend over the North Pole is melting the polar ice cap and may produce an ice-free Arctic Ocean by the year 2000.”

June 2008, Ted Alvarez, Backpacker Magazine Blogs: “you could potentially sail, kayak, or even swim to the North Pole by the end of the summer. Climate scientists say that the Arctic ice…is currently on track to melt sometime in 2008.” In the summer of 2008 he makes a prediction for the summer of 2008! Careless of him. Shortly after this prediction was made, a Russian icebreaker was trapped in the ice of the Northwest Passage for a week. The state of the Northwest passage today, in 2014, is roughly the same as it was in 1921. Some years you can sail through, some years you cannot, and most years if you try it, there is a high risk of getting stuck.

January 2000 Dr. Michael Oppenheimer of the Environmental Defense Fund commenting (in a NY Times interview) on the mild winters in New York City: “But it does not take a scientist to size up the effects of snowless winters on the children too young to remember the record-setting blizzards of 1996. For them, the pleasures of sledding and snowball fights are as out-of-date as hoop-rolling, and the delight of a snow day off from school is unknown.”

2008 Dr. James Hansen of the Goddard Space Institute (NASA) on a visit to Britain: “The recent warm winters that Britain has experienced are a sign that the climate is changing.” Implying that the warm winters are now going to be typical, a short term implied prediction. Careless of him. Two exceptionally cold winters followed. The 2009-10 winter may be the coldest experienced in the UK since 1683.

June 30, 1989, Associated Press: U.N. OFFICIAL PREDICTS DISASTER, SAYS GREENHOUSE EFFECT COULD WIPE SOME NATIONS OFF MAP–entire nations could be wiped off the face of the earth by rising sea levels if global warming is not reversed by the year 2000. Coastal flooding and crop failures would create an exodus of ‘eco-refugees,’ threatening political chaos,” said Brown, director of the New York office of the U.N. Environment Program. He added that governments have a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect. I heard the exact same prediction last night on the television (in 2014), entire nations disappearing, hordes of eco refugees creating political instability, with the date for doomsday changed from 2000 to 2030.

Sept 19, 1989, St. Louis Post-Dispatch: “New York will probably be like Florida 15 years from now.”

December 5, 1989, Dallas Morning News: “Some predictions for the next decade are not difficult to make…Americans may see the ’80s migration to the Sun Belt reverse as a global warming trend rekindles interest in cooler climates.”

Good bye winter. Never again snow?” Spiegel, 1 April 2000

“Within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event. … Children just aren’t going to know what snow is.”
David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 20 March 2000

“Winter has gone forever and we should officially bring spring forward instead. … There is no winter any more despite a cold snap before Christmas. It is nothing like years ago when I was younger. There is a real problem with spring because so much is flowering so early year to year.”
Express, Dr Nigel Taylor, Curator of Kew Gardens, 8 Feb 2008

“Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry.”
David Viner, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, 14 Feb 2004

“Spring is arriving earlier each year as a result of climate change, the first ‘conclusive proof’ that global warming is altering the timing of the seasons, scientists announced yesterday.”
Guardian, 26 August 2006.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/aug/26/climatechange.climatechangeenvironment

“The global temperature will increase every year by 0.2°C”
Michael Müller, Socialist, State Secretary in the Federal Ministry of Environment, in Die Zeit, January 15, 2007

“Unfortunately, it’s just getting too hot for the Scottish ski industry. It is very vulnerable to climate change; the resorts have always been marginal in terms of snow and, as the rate of climate change increases, it is hard to see a long-term future.”
David Viner, of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.
February 14, 2004

http://www.theguardian.com/uk/2004/feb/14/climatechange.scotland

1990 Actress Meryl Streep “By the year 2000 – that’s less than ten years away–earth’s climate will be warmer than it’s been in over 100,000 years. If we don’t do something, there’ll be enormous calamities in a very short time.” Heard the same prediction on television last night, though they were a bit vaguer about the date.

Edward Goldsmith, 1991, (5000 Days to Save the Planet): “By 2000, British and American oil will have diminished to a trickle….Ozone depletion and global warming threaten food shortages, but the wealthy North will enjoy a temporary reprieve by buying up the produce of the South. Unrest among the hungry and the ensuing political instability, will be contained by the North’s greater military might. A bleak future indeed, but an inevitable one unless we change the way we live…At present rates of exploitation there may be no rainforest left in 10 years. If measures are not taken immediately, the greenhouse effect may be unstoppable in 12 to 15 years.”

April 22, 1990 ABC, The Miracle Planet: “I think we’re in trouble. When you realize how little time we have left–we are now given not 10 years to save the rainforests, but in many cases five years. Madagascar will largely be gone in five years unless something happens. And nothing is happening.”

November 7, 1997, (BBC commentator): “It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Niños are going to become more frequent, and they’re going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we’ll go into a permanent El Nino. So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we’ll have El Niño upon El Niño, and that will become the norm. And you’ll have an El Niño, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years.”

July 26, 1999 The Birmingham Post: “Scientists are warning that some of the Himalayan glaciers could vanish within ten years because of global warming. A build-up of greenhouse gases is blamed for the meltdown, which could lead to drought and flooding in the region affecting millions of people.”

October 15, 1990 Carl Sagan: “The planet could face an ‘ecological and agricultural catastrophe’ by the next decade if global warming trends continue.”

Sept 11, 1999, The Guardian: “A report last week claimed that within a decade, the disease (malaria) will be common again on the Spanish coast. The effects of global warming are coming home to roost in the developed world.”

March 29, 2001, CNN: “In ten year’s time, most of the low-lying atolls surrounding Tuvalu’s nine islands in the South Pacific Ocean will be submerged under water as global warming rises sea levels.”

1969, Lubos Moti, Czech physicist: “It is now pretty clearly agreed that CO2 content [in the atmosphere] will rise 25% by 2000. This could increase the average temperature near the earth’s surface by 7 degrees Fahrenheit. This in turn could raise the level of the sea by 10 feet. Goodbye New York. Goodbye Washington, for that matter.”

2005, Andrew Simms, policy director of the New Economics Foundation: “Scholars are predicting that 50 million people worldwide will be displaced by 2010 because of rising sea levels, desertification, dried up aquifers, weather-induced flooding and other serious environmental changes.” I heard on the television last night (2014) this exact same prediction with the date changed from 2010 to 2020

Oct 20, 2009, Gordon Brown UK Prime Minister (referring to the Copenhagen climate conference): “World leaders have 50 days to save the Earth from irreversible global warming.”

May 31, 2006 Al Gore, CBS Early Show: “…the debate among the scientists is over. There is no more debate. We face a planetary emergency. There is no more scientific debate among serious people who’ve looked at the science…Well, I guess in some quarters, there’s still a debate over whether the moon landing was staged in a movie lot in Arizona, or whether the Earth is flat instead of round.”

The trouble with white nationalism

March 30th, 2014

is that it is demotic. The trouble with our brahmins is that they are demotic.

If, seeking power, you propose to give all white people a microslice of power, you will be outbid by those seeking power who propose to give everyone a microslice of power.

White nationalism is moderate leftism, and moderate leftism will always be outbid by immoderate leftism

Today’s white nationalism is yet another variant on the Republican program of backing away from the left singularity in infinitesimally tiny steps. This runs contrary to the natural ever leftwards dynamic, so always turns into program for heading into the left singularity at a slightly slower pace which in turn turns into a program for heading into the left singularity at an ever accelerating pace – mainstream republicanism.

White nationalism, being demotic, tends to become national socialism. National socialism kills people not because it is nationalist, but because it is socialist.

It is necessary to apply different laws to different people on the basis of superficial characteristics. For example a black man taking certain drugs is overwhelmingly likely to be markedly more dangerous than a white man taking the same drugs. So, in practice, we have very restrictive laws that are theoretically applied to everyone, but are, in practice, applied selectively – the alternative to racially aware enforcement being suicide.

Would it not be a lot fairer to openly issue identity cards, and openly have different laws for different groups, with some groups having laws that were simpler, harsher, more restrictive, and more swiftly enforced?

Of course that would be fairer, more just, more effective, than our current hypocritical system.

And if we had that, would not white nationalism be part of the air you breathed, so that all whites would be white nationalist without thinking about it or being aware of it?

Obviously it would. And obviously that is the system that we used to have. We used to all be unthinkingly and naturally race nationalist, the alternative being obviously stupid and suicidal. And we drifted away from that system, replacing it with elaborate hypocrisy and pretense, because white nationalism is leftist, and Cthulhu swims always left.

You can move leftwards from that system to socialism, and wind up murdering people by the truckload, or move leftwards from that system to what we have now, and white people wind up being ethnically cleansed. On the whole, the latter leftwards movement is markedly preferable to the former leftwards movement.

Whites are not naturally a tribe. To make them a tribe, you would need an identitarian religion. That religion would have to become the state religion, and then forcibly convert all whites to that state religion.

But state religions that forcibly convert everyone are intolerably oppressive, and tend to have extremely bad economic effects. A more workable program is what we have now, where the official religion is high status, all deviations from it are low status, and if you want to get a job in government, or quasi government, or go to the more prestigious universities you have to pretend to subscribe to the official religion.

Now if we had an identitarian religion, and it was the state religion, then after a few hundred years or so, nearly all whites would subscribe to it, much as they subscribe to our current official state religion, and then rule of that religion would effectively be white nationalism.

But, lacking such a religion, whites lack tribal identity, so white nationalism will always fail the way it has already failed.

Been there, done that, prohibited from wearing the t-shirt.

We tried going back to the 1950s, time to try 1660.

Still patting themselves on the back

March 26th, 2014

The Cathedral believed it was unthinkable that Putin would annex Crimea. When Putin annexed Crimea, they believed he had made a terrible mistake, and they just needed to allow him some face saving way to back down.

Mother Jones tells us: Russia Is Not Exactly a Big Winner in the Crimean Dispute

Here is how Russia has won: The Cathedral has murdered its allies, and been unable to murder its enemies. Russia has shown willingness and ability to protect its friends.

Two thirds of Ukrainian troops in Crimea have deserted or gone over to the Russians. More will probably follow now that Ukraine has ordered Ukrainian troops to leave Crimea. Ukraine has been going through defense ministers at alarming rate, which may well presage yet another coup, or worse, the hollowing out of the government as the illusion of government becomes dangerously transparent. Government is a collective illusion. Like the divine right of kings, it exists so long as people pretend it exists, sustained by the power of faith. The Ukraine government may well vanish from between the fingers of the Cathedral as the faith falters, and if on the other hand, the government of Ukraine does not vanish, but continues to exist, it has already cost the Cathedral more than it knows.

Shortly before Russia intervened in Crimea, Russian loyalist militias spontaneously appeared and Ukrainian regiments spontaneously disappeared. In this, Russia has won, and the Cathedral has lost.

Obama and the Democrats attached a pork barrel rider to their bill sanctioning Russia, dispensing some gravy to their pals, demonstrating to the world and to Putin that internal politics, back scratching, and pork barreling completely outweigh foreign affairs. In this up side down priority, the power of America in world affairs has been undermined. Washington is revealed as distracted and unserious.

And now, for absolutely no logical reason, yet another picture of the world’s cutest prosecutor general:
Cutest_prosecutor_general

Creeping coup in the Ukraine

March 25th, 2014

The fascists took over Japan in the 1930s by a creeping coup. There was a fair bit of violence and assassination by people with friends in government, and people in government had friends in the violence and assassination business. Similarly, that is how Mossadegh “democratically” came to power in Iran, without ever facing the inconvenience of an election.

And that is how the Cathedral installed a puppet regime in Ukraine.

I read, in google translation, a Russian web page on the amazingly cute Prosecutor General of Crimea

Natalia Polonskaya

Natalia Poklonskaya cartoon

She has survived one assassination attempt. She is guarded by two men with machine guns. She got the job because the first four candidates they approached were frightened to take the job.

Before she became the Prosecutor General of Crimea, she was a prosecutor in the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine. In that job she complained because people in Ukraine were engaged in political violence, and yet not being prosecuted – and so was “invited” to take a holiday.

And that is how a creeping coup works.

Prediction, Retrodiction, Warmism and the Demon Haunted Dark

March 23rd, 2014

We are far more impressed by a scientific theory that predicts, than a supposedly scientific theory that retrodicts, even though from the Bayesian point of view they are the same.

Successful prediction tells us that this is an actual theory, rather than a slippery and ambiguous pile of vague fudge factors subject to post hoc reinterpretation.

As you probably know, Global Warming models are 100% successful at precisely “predicting” (retrodicting) the alleged past, even though past climate is not in fact known very accurately.  They are totally unsuccessful at predicting.

By and large, Warmism is not incorrect science, but anti science. Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming is an attempt by skeptics to make sense out of the Warmist position, to construct a plausible scientific theory that makes the predictions that Warmists predict, but Warmists are not much interested in making sense.

The theory attributed to the Warmists by the skeptics is that water vapor provides positive feedback, clouds also provide postive feedback, so any small nudge tends to have large effects on the climate.

Do Warmists believe the theory that skeptics attribute to them?

Perhaps.  To find out, you would have to sue the model builders under the freedom of information act, and the model builders would stone wall, the courts would favor them, and the model builders would complain they are being persecuted by big oil.

The term “multiplier” in the sense that skeptics use it never appears in Warmist works, only in critiques of Warmism. The term “climate sensitivity” does appear in Warmist works, but it does not seem to be used in the same meaning as in skeptic works. It is not a ratio that can be larger or smaller than unity, not a number, but more like sin and purity, not the kind of thing where one might say the “the climate sensitivity is 2.7” To a Warmist, to assert that the climate sensitivity is 2.7 would be as ridiculous as if a Roman Catholic priest were to say that that the sinfulness of adultery is 2.7 A Warmist paper will say that climate sensitivity is greater than we thought, but will not give a number for what we supposedly used to think it was, nor a number for what we now supposedly think it is – which does not stop them from deducing from this unspecified change in this unspecified number that the temperature in 2100 will be precisely six degrees hotter.

I have not read much of the Warmist literature.  Perhaps there is some that understands the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming attributed to the Warmists by the skeptics, but what I have read seems to me more like inspiration by the spirit of Gaia decorated almost at random by scientific sounding words.  It could be that the author understands and believes a scientific theory that makes the required doomful predictions, but there is no very clear indication that he does.

Steve McIntyre argued that it is likely that clouds create negative feedback. Do Warmists attempt to argue with him? Do Warmists say “no, clouds create positive feedback”? Do Warmists even know the difference between positive and negative feedback?  Nasa discussing clouds sound like they use the terms correctly, but then fail to apply them when discussing the stability of temperatures between the wet season and dry season in the tropics, even though this is an obvious case of negative feedback.

Rather, Warmism is a revival of the old demon worshiping cults. The priests announce the gods are angry, any unusual weather event being evidence of the wrath of the demon gods, and that to appease these hostile and wrathful beings sacrifices shall be made, which sacrifices the priests get to administer.

The trouble with gay marriage

March 21st, 2014

Scott Alexander has just posted that anyone who objects to homosexuality must be a repressed homosexual, which is typical of what passes for rationality among the “Less Wrong” crowd.

By the same reasoning, anyone who objects to coprophagy must be a repressed coprophage, because, of course, everyone at  “Less Wrong” knows perfectly well that there can be no rational, innate, or instinctive reasons to dislike eating $#!%.

When we were all forced to call homosexuals gay, “gay” instantly became a startlingly potent curse word, and so the second verse of “deck the halls with boughs of holly” instantly disappeared from the Christmas Carol rotation, as did the Flintstones theme song. Clearly, it was not the intention of the social engineers who forced us to use the word “gay” that the second verse of “Deck the Halls” would vanish, yet somehow it did.

Forcing people to call gays married will predictably have a similar effect on the word “marriage” – people will titter when they hear the word. “Marriage” too will become a curse word and an insult, just as “Gay” instantly did.

We have thousands of years of experience with euphemisms.  Applying a nice word to something disgusting does not make the disgusting thing nice, it makes the nice word disgusting.

Recap on Warmism

March 14th, 2014

I have been ignoring the issue of Global Warming for a while, because it is pretty much settled.  Anyone who still believes in Warmism is stupid, crazy, or lying.  Usually stupid.

But, a short summary: Read the rest of this entry »

Players, PUAs, and Petruchio

March 13th, 2014

Some people in the Reaction complain that players are evil, and therefore should be cast out of the Reaction.  Perhaps, but you cannot cast them out of the Dark Enlightenment, for the Dark Enlightenment is simply truth, unwanted and unpleasant truth, and no one has better cause to know the unwanted truth than players.

As for evil, it is not the duty of men in general to protect women in general, but of husbands and fathers to protect wives and daughters.

It is natural and right for men to predate upon feral women.  The problem is that we should prevent women from becoming feral, not that we should protect feral women from their own lusts.

It is not the man’s job to control the woman, it is a husband’s job and a father’s job.

In so far as we need collective social action, we need collective social action to uphold the authority of husbands and fathers to discipline badly behaved women, not to restrain players from taking advantage of feral women.

Now I hear someone saying “Well, it is natural for men to predate upon feral women, but is it right?”

And, as evidence that it is indeed right, I review “The Taming of the Shrew”  Read the rest of this entry »

Exhaustion of the low hanging fruit, or moral decay?

March 10th, 2014

Photolithography is limited by the wavelength of light.  Below 160 nanometers, UV is not light, but ionizing radiation.  So at some point, have to switch from photolithography to contact lithography, such as imprint lithography, or direct contact printing.  But did they stop shrinking stuff before we reached that limit? That they are lying about it suggests moral decay, rather than exhaustion of the low hanging fruit.

Current photolithography is stuck using UV at 193 nanometers.  Could they have gone lower?

Nitrogen and fused quartz, which they are already using, is good down to 160 nanometers.  They are using water for their high refractive index fluid, and water becomes opaque below 193.  Perfluorocarbons, however are good all the way down to 160 nanometers.  So they did not push current technology to its final limit.  It was not exhaustion of the low hanging fruit that caused the current alarmingly indefinite pause in Moore’s law.

My prediction is that if humans resume technological advance, will resume in China, and will resume using contact lithography or direct contact printing, as there is little point in recreating from scratch a technology that has reached its ultimate limit.  And if humans don’t resume technological and scientific advance, it will be a long, slow, painful and messy descent into a dark age, until harsh conditions cause natural selection to resume.