Posts Tagged ‘decline of the west’

Peak Oil

Friday, July 21st, 2017

If you discover more than ten years of reserves, politicians are apt to take it away from you.

So for the last hundred years or so, the world has only had ten years worth of proven oil reserves left and has been about to run out in ten years or so. In fact the world has only had about ten years of anything left for the past hundred years or so.

King Hubbert created a composite, mega-decline curve that predicted U.S. crude oil production would peak in the 1965-70 time period. But, of course, it did not decline. So his prediction was retroactively relabelled “Lower 48 states Oil Production”. Which retrodiction was true – for a while. Retrodictions always are. See global warming for example.

Well, for some time US oil production in the lower 48 states has been increasing. So it was re-relabelled “Lower 48 states conventional oil Production” The new story was that fracking has intolerable environmental and financial costs, so is not a practical replacement for old type oil production.

When Trump stopped the government from funding and organizing people to protest fracking, the intolerable environmental costs mysteriously vanished in a puff of smoke, and when Trump made it easier to get permission to frack, so did a large part the economic costs, with the result that US frackers are now giving the Saudis a hard time.

For a given technology, and a given price, a given oilfield or group of oilfields does indeed follow a Hubberd Curve, and you can use the curve to estimate what the real reserves are. (They are usually enormously greater than the official reserves.)

Although science has been stagnating since Harvard got the upper hand over the Royal Society, technology that makes money continues to advance. We have a problem with new blue sky technologies. No one in the west is developing new technologies any more, just polishing up existing profitable technologies. We are not getting any replacement for chip patterning usin one hundred and ninety three nanometer excimer laser lithography, just ever more minute improvements in excimer laser lithography, with the result that Moore’s law has run out of puff. People keep talking about ten nanometer, but it is just not going anywhere. They keep saying they will use both one ninety and ten. If ten was working, would not use one ninety. If they were talking ninety nanometer, rather than ten, then I would be impressed. If someone could make money out of supersonic jets, we would get better and better supersonics, but instead, planes are slowing down, not speeding up. But people could make money out of drilling and stimulating oil fields, so drilling and oilfield stimulation got better and better, and continues to improve.

Physical resources are effectively infinite, in that physical limits to growth are unlikely to be a significant problem in the reasonably foreseeable future. The problem is social decay.

Pushing back on social justice warriors.

Tuesday, July 11th, 2017

Remember how Github went social justice?

Well elections have consequences

“Coraline”, an autogynophilic male to female transexual, competent programmer, and political commissar, recently got purged from Github by the mandarinate.

Mandarins are priests, and Social Justice Warriors are priests, but social Justice Warriors are primarily into runaway extreme holier than thou holiness, while mandarins are more into politely conforming to the official religion and emitting all the right social signals. Thus the holiness spiral with mandarins tends to be <the current generation>, while the holiness spiral with social justice warriors rolls a lot faster, tending to be <the current year>

“Coraline” claims to be a good programmer by the objective standard of high lines of code contributed, high bugs fixed, high features added, low bugs caused. This is plausible because autogynophiles tend to be good programmers, combining the male propensity for strong and rigid logic, with the female propensity for conformity, obedience, and rule following. Effeminate gay male to female transexuals, on the other hand, combine the female incapacity to do logic, with an extreme form of the male propensity to break the rules and defy authority, showing up for work infrequently, late, and stoned.

But “Coraline” was not hired as a good engineer, but as a social justice warrior that other engineers could respect and take seriously, as a political commissar that could understand what the engineers were actually doing. It was hired by its female non engineer boss, to impose social justice on its fellow engineers.

In restrospect, should have stuck to engineering, for women will never perceive a male to female transexual as genuinely female, and thus, never perceive it as genuinely deserving of their own immensely high social status, thus always in their hearts perceive it as a low status male (redundant, I know, because males are always and automatically low status – observe how the guy in the corner office gets interrupted by his female staff and does not get laid) thus denying it the power and authority that a political commissar needs to be effective, needs to do its political job.

If you want to check to see whether your company’s organization chart corresponds to actual status, pay no attention to mere words, but rather watch who interrupts whom, who speaks over whom. Chances are the women speak over and interrupt their merely male boss. The words of the interruption are invariably courteous, helpful, respectful, friendly, and polite, but the fact that it is an interruption is the opposite of courteous, the opposite of helpful, is disrespectful, unfriendly, hostile, hateful, and impolite. It is a shit test. Fertile age women cannot help shit testing men, just as men cannot help looking at a woman’s boobs. And if she gets away with interrupting and speaking over your boss, he failed the shit test, no matter how superficially friendly, respectful, and polite the words of her interruption are. Conversely, if he regularly and routinely passes her shit tests, she will probably fuck him, no matter how old, bald, fat, and married he is. No action of his, no matter how gross, will ever constitute sexual harrassment.

Yes, if you are a boss who regularly and routinely passes their inevitable shit tests “you can do anything, you can grab them by the pussy.”

“Coraline” was working as an engineer, and was successful as an engineer, and appreciated for its engineering, when Github recruited it as a political commissar:

They wanted to offer me a job. They had just created a team called Community & Safety, charged with making GitHub more safe for marginalized people

Danger Will Robinson!

Its team was one normal male, two male to female transexuals, two colored women, and a normal female manager. Thus, three real engineers, all low status, and three fake engineers, all high status. And it is a real engineer, and a good one. Danger Will Robinson!

“Coraline” found itself socially isolated at Github. Danger Will Robertson!

This was the first instance of what came to be referred to as my “non-empathetic communication style”.

“Coraline” was talking about social justice issues in the direct, logical, unemotional, and factual style of a male, rather than in the socially required female style. The mandarinate found this low class, which is to say masculine, and did not like it. Danger Will Robinson!

when I joined the video call with my manager, it became clear that something was wrong. She went back to the issue of my lack of empathy in communications and collaboration.

“Coraline” was claiming status as a very holy social justice warrior that the mandarinate was reluctant to grant to a white male – and women will always see an autogynophile as a male, no matter what delusions the autogynophile harbors. So all the high status people on his team were reluctant to accept his holiness status, and incapable of perceiving his competent engineer status.
So, perceiving his attempt at female status had failed, he attempts to kill himself and is involuntarily committed to a mental hospital.

It is not people like me who keep using the wrong pronouns who drive people like “Coraline” to suicide. It is people like his manager, who no matter what pronouns they use, keep acting as if they perceive him as what he is – a man wearing a dress who has cut his dick off and grown boobs. The Opalgate incident, when lots of people piled on him calling him a man in a dress, did not make him in the least suicidal. It was the bad review by his boss, which review effectively amounted to “I can still sense the masculinity in your communication style” that caused his suicide attempt.

When the politically correct say “empathic” they actually mean feminine. If his female boss had actually been empathic, would not have driven him to suicide. They wanted someone who was a competent engineer, but who could also pass as a female social justice warrior, not just in carefully posed still photographs, but interactively. And that is not what they got. Indeed, it is never what they get.

He irreversibly mutilated himself to elevate his status to that of a woman, and his status did not in fact rise. Hence, suicide. Calling him a man in a dress did not adversely affect his perception of his own status, because he perceived those using the wrong pronoun as low status. But he perceived the women in his group as high status, they perceived him as a mere male, no matter what pronoun they used, thus, suicide.

In the past several months GitHub has fired at least three transgender engineers

He was fired for being interactively unconvincing as a woman.

and many more cisgender women.

With Trump in power, less need to pretend women are engineerettes.

Prominent people who were trying to effect positive change in the company culture have quit.

Social Justice Warriors have quit, perhaps one step ahead of being fired.

… In a return to its meritocratic roots, the company has decided to move forward with a merit-based stock option program despite criticism from employees who tried to point out its inherent unfairness.

That merit is inherently “unfair” is an implicit admission that women are inferior at activites in the male sphere and coloreds are just inferior.

And the widely publicized results of the open source survey show that the company’s platform is still not appealing to anyone but straight white guys.

The company’s platform is quite appealing to autogynophilic male to female transexuals, who are heavily overrepresented. And the rest cannot code. Ability to code is a pre-requisite for actually finding the company’s platform useful.

Why feminists support Islamic Rape Jihad

Sunday, June 11th, 2017

Doubtless you have heard of the recent Idaho gang rape.

This was Islamic Rape Jihad, not just Muslim rapists, because the girl was five, because the boys put it on video, because the boys expected the support of their community, and because the boys received the support of their community.

Feminist response to this rape shows what feminists really want. Everyone reacting to this in an indignant manner is a male who is in favor of patriarchy to a greater or lesser extent, and many of them want to completely reverse female emancipation.

In the ancestral environment, and indeed today’s environment, if a woman was property the way a cow is property, she was likely to have substantially greater reproductive success than a free woman. If a man was property the way a cow is property, likely to have zero reproductive success.

In the ancestral environment, as today, male slaves don’t reproduce. Female slaves generally outreproduce free women. Thus the optimal strategy for a woman is to provoke until provocation results in enslavement.

The evolutionary optimal strategy for a female, in the ancestral environment, and in our present day environment, is to act in ways that gets the west conquered by Islamic State. If free, likely to have 1.5 children, and similarly her grandchildren, rapidly resulting in the total disappearance of her genes. If her menfolk are conquered and she is sold naked in chains on the auction block by Islamic state, likely to have six or seven children.

Optimal reproductive strategy for a woman is to be captured by a man who owns her much as he owns a cow and can do anything to her he could do to a cow. The optimal reproductive strategy for her owner is to treat her considerably better than he treats his cows, but the less he has power to do bad things to her, the more it is in his interests to do bad things to her. For a free woman, the stable strategy is defect/defect, for the woman to defect by serial monogamy, for the woman to spend her hottest and most fertile years continually trying to trade up to a higher status male or better place on some other male’s booty call list, and for a male to defect by keeping as many women as possible on his booty call list, to spin as many plates as possible, without investing in any of them. For a slave, because the slave cannot defect, because the slave is guaranteed to play cooperate, cooperate is also a good move for the male owner of a female slave, because he has a biological interest in the welfare of her children. He is free to impose cooperate/defect on her, but that is not actually all that much in his biological interest, which biological interest manifests in the tendency of men to love and care for women that they regularly have sex with, provided that they believe those women are not having sex with other men.

Feminist demands for emancipation ever escalate, no matter how extraordinary the privilege women are granted, because they are pushing for someone strong enough to master them. In the ancestral environment, free women were unsuccessful at reproducing, because prisoner’s dilemma. That she can defect on a man guarantees defect/defect, guarantees that he will try to defect before she does – giving her no care, protection, or support, keeping as many plates spinning as he can, so they look for someone powerful enough to stop them from defecting. Slave women will generally outreproduce free women, because he who owns a woman absolutely has incentive to invest in her and her children. Similarly, cows are numerous, their wild ancestors are generally extinct. If animal liberationists liberate chickens and cows, there are not going to be very many chickens or cows. If the People’s Popular Committee for Food Abundance tells the farmer he does not own his land and his crops, there is going to be crop failure.

And feminists, in supporting Rape Jihad, are unconsciously pursuing their optimal evolutionary reproductive strategy, which is to be sold by Islamic state naked in chains on the auction block. We are descended from free men and unfree women. Peoples, nations religions, cultures and groups with strong, proud, free, and independent women died out. They always die out.

Female emancipation is a shit test that we failed. Feminists support Rape Jihad because they are unconsciously looking for men who will pass their shit test.

Libertarians support ethnic cleansing of whites

Thursday, June 18th, 2015

The libertarian position has always been to go with the left on everything except economic leftism.

As the left abandons economic leftism, and at the same time goes lefter and lefter, this leaves libertarians indistinguishable from leftists, and libertarians going lefter and lefter.

And as the left goes frothing at the mouth batshit insane, the libertarians froth with equal enthusiasm.

The highest point of absurdity so far is Reason magazine backing the official narrative on the McKinney pool takeover by black kids

Police responded to a fight that had broken out between a girl and a mother. A video of the encounter establishes that the fight did indeed take place, but it only involved a couple people—not the large swath of teenagers who were later detained by officers. When the officers arrived, they treated all the minority teenagers as suspects and ignored the white kids.

The problem was not that a fight had broken out. The problem was that a fight had broken out because a bunch of black teenagers had invaded someone else’s pool without permission.

So Reason magazine no longer supports your property rights if you are white.

Ferguson chimp out

Sunday, August 17th, 2014

Short recap of the Ferguson story:

Michael Brown, a huge black man helped himself to some tobacco in a shop, then strong armed the shopkeeper rather than paying.  He then walked down the street, expecting traffic to get out of his way.  When a policeman told him to stop jaywalking, he attacked the policeman, forced his way into the policeman’s car, and attempted to take the cops gun. The cop shot him.

According to heavily tattooed gang members wearing clothes intended to intimidate, after being shot, Michael Brown ran with his hands in the air, and the policeman shot Michael Brown again while he was holding his arms in the air and running.

This might well nonetheless be true, at least the part about him being shot while running, though not the part about his hands in the air, for if Michael Brown attacked me I might well do the same thing.  He is big, scary, violent, thuggish, and crazy.  Yeah, it would be the wrong thing to do, but when a big crazy guy attacks one out of the blue, one is apt to do the wrong thing.

The blacks proceeded to loot and burn.  The local police, facing collective criminal conduct, responded militarily, engaging in collective violence to crush collective violence – a military style response.

This “military”, which is to say collective, violence of course horrified the press, who blamed the police, and in particular the white cop in charge.  So a black cop was put in charge, and a huge round of news stories proceeded about peaceful protests and how everything was wonderful in peaceful civilized harmony, blithely ignoring events running contrary to story, blithely ignoring that the blacks were taking out one cop after another by collective violence, which the individual violence of the cops was ineffectual in preventing.  And then, contrary to story, the black cop had to resort to collective military style violence to keep his cops alive.

This is analogous to events in Gaza.  One might well believe that Israel blockades Gaza because they are evil racists, but when Egypt blockades Gaza, people of the same race and religion as themselves, it’s pretty obvious that the problem is terrorists operating out of Gaza, not Gaza’s neighbors.  And, similarly, the problem in Ferguson is individual and collective black violence, which collective violence has to be met by collective violence.

The larger story is that blacks destroyed Saint Louis, then, fleeing their own destruction of the city and each other’s violence, proceeded to move into a white suburb, which they are now in the process of destroying in turn.

This is a reason that the cost of housing is so high.  If wealthy people got to live where they chose, and poorer people got to live in the less desirable places, the inner city would be full of rich people, and poor black thugs would live in the exurbs.  The city would be safe and orderly, while slums far away from the center, places that no one ever goes to or cares much about, were dangerous and disorderly.  If, however, we look at where people live, it is clear that black collective violence trumps money, which forces up the cost of housing as white people bid up the small and shrinking pool of safe housing, which is usually located in places inconveniently far from the city center, forcing them to perform long commutes.

The white man buys a house.  To support his crushing mortgage he makes a long commute every day, along a highway with big wall to protect it from black people living much closer to his workplace than he does.  And then some section eight women and her nine kids by nine different thugs is plonked beside his house, and while he is at work, the section eight woman terrorizes his wife, breaking one of his windows and threatening to force entry.

This makes it hard for white men to reproduce, that white men are not able, not allowed, to protect their wives and children, in part because blacks can engage in collective violence against white people, and white people are not allowed to collectively defend themselves.   To have a safe place for one’s wife and children, it has to be possible to run bad people out of that place.

That blacks live close to where white people work, while white people are forced to live far from where they work, tells us that blacks have the upper hand over whites.  Slavery worked.  Jim Crow sort of worked.  Civil rights has been a disaster.

 

Technological decline

Saturday, May 31st, 2014

Konkvistador has drawn my attention to the Pu238 shortage. We stopped making Pu238 in 1988 You need Pu238 for nuclear batteries. The 2006 New Horizons mission to Pluto and the Kuiper belt was launched without enough Pu238 to keep all its equipment live during the Pluto flyby, and without enough Pu238 to do its Kuiper belt mission, from which I conclude that since 2011 we have been totally completely flat out of Pu238, just as the Fed is totally completely flat out of gold. For the last few decades, the government has been acting as if we are very very short of Pu238. For example, no allotment for pacemaker batteries, so people with pacemakers have to have major surgery every couple of years. The Europeans are using (dangerous and expensive) americium based nuclear batteries for their space program.

Supposedly we can simply make more Pu238, just as supposedly when the two towers fell, we could supposedly build buildings just as tall or taller, just as we can supposedly still build warplanes that can cruise at supersonic speeds, we just supposedly do not want to. Today’s businessmen are supposedly so secure in their masculinity that they do not want a higher corner office with a bigger view than the next businessman.

Maybe.

But I rather think if we could do that, we would not have run out in the first place. we would not have launched New Horizons with a half flat battery. We have been mighty short for at least a couple of decades, and since 2011 the cupboard has been just flat empty.

Technological decline

Sunday, April 27th, 2014

If we cannot build high buildings any more, progressives say we are now so sophisticated that we are now superior to status competition based on giant penis substitutes, and status competition based on having a higher corner office than the other business executives.

If high art is an aids infested trannie projectile vomiting over the audience, progressives say that we philistines just don’t get high art.

But the most important thing about a military aircraft is that it can fly faster, higher, and further than its opponents, so that you can get away from enemies, but enemies cannot get away from you.  And of these, the most important by far is to fly faster, so that you can bring trouble to your enemies, but your enemies cannot bring trouble to you.

SR 71 Blackbird, first built in 1972, about the time we put the last man on the moon.

Cruising Speed Mach 3.2
Ceiling 85 000 feet
Range 3 200 nautical miles

Today’s latest and greatest American warplane, the impressively named F-35 Lightning II. Does not that sound so much more impressive than “Blackbird”?

Cruising Speed Mach 1.6
Ceiling 60 000 feet
Range 1 200 nautical miles nautical miles

So let us make a little table:

Capability Then Now
Speed Mach 3.2 Mach 1.6
Ceiling 85 000 feet 60 000 feet
Range 3 200 nautical miles 1200 nautical miles

(more…)

mens rea

Sunday, January 26th, 2014

I have been arguing that social decay is ending technological and scientific progress.  In most areas it has strikingly slowed, in some areas, going backwards in the west, as we forget how to do what once we could do.  Others, however, argue that technological and scientific progress is still running hot, or that if it has slowed, it is that we ran out of low hanging fruit.

But a big tell is that people are lying about it. The lie indicates not only failure, but that the failure is shameful – that the failure is in us, not in external circumstances.  That we are lying about it shows the failure is social decay. (more…)

Tall buildings and the social order

Monday, January 20th, 2014

To make and keep the upper stories of a tall building habitable requires routine high technology.  The lifts have to work, the water needs to be pumped, the toilets have let the poop down one hundred stories without shattering violence.  It is not all that expensive.  Current office space costs in the centers of major cities are so high that very tall buildings are immensely profitable.  It is simply difficult to do, requires able people working together, both initially to build the systems, and subsequently to keep them going.

It is habitable floors that are hard to do, and habitable floors are what generates the rental income.  So, to assess a society’s technological level, count habitable floors.

By and large, the taller the building, the more the profit.  Doubtless there is a limit, but in the center of most major cities, most tall buildings are below that limit.  If people could build taller, they would.  At our present technological level, settling space seems likely to be fatally unprofitable, but building upwards, building the city of tomorrow, is highly profitable. (more…)

Leftism as cancer

Sunday, January 5th, 2014

Leftism is to memes as cancer is genes.

If the cells of the body mutate, cells that multiply at the expense of the body will be selected.  And cells that mutate to a faster mutation rate will be selected, since they will have more fast multiplying variants.

In a healthy body, each cell lives for the body, and performs its role in the whole body, making the body one. In cancer, each cancer cell lives for itself, at the expense of the body, parasitically, until the parasites devour the host

Left wing memes are selected by propagation through state power for propagation through state power. (more…)