This follows the path that the Soviet Union followed into Afghanistan.
The Soviet Union mistreated its allied government in Afghanistan, after the style of Darth Vader
I am altering the deal. Pray I don’t alter it any further.
The allied government, upon being treated as a servant, became difficult, so was overthrown and replaced by a puppet government. The puppet government faced rebellion and a military disinclined to follow orders, so the puppet government was brushed aside and replaced by direct rule of imperial troops. Long, messy, expensive war ensued. Eventually the Soviet Union decides to retreat – but discovers that retreat under fire is a difficult and dangerous maneuver.
Similarly the Cathedral mistreated, then eventually overthrew, its ally in the Ukraine, creating a puppet regime that now finds itself with a rebellion on its hands and a military disinclined to fight. Perhaps the Right Sector is willing to fight, but it is far from clear whether it will fight the puppet government’s enemies, or fight the puppet government, or, quite likely, both.
Could the Cathedral be that stupid? Probably not this time, but sooner or later they will do something that stupid. They are blind, crazy, and not as smart as they used to be.
Obama’s gut instinct in international affairs is to avoid trouble and make concessions, and right now is the time for that policy, but there are some in the State Department beating the drums for a more martial policy, to cover the fact that the coup was just a bad idea, badly executed, from which the Cathedral needs to retreat.
Obama is infamous for bowing to our enemies, but the USG has also been busily blowing quite a few of them up, a contradiction resolved if we suppose that he is just the PR guy and is not always told what is going down – which is roughly how the Kaiser found himself in World War I.
Puppet regimes have a tendency to disappear. The most easily attainable peaceful outcome would be for Russian speakers to rule the eastern states of a loose Ukrainian federation, and Right Sector to rule the western states of a loose Ukrainian federation, while the puppet regime remains nominally in charge, but abandons real power. The Cathedral and Obama, however, think that the natural flow of history is ever leftwards, and that such an outcome is “on the wrong side of history”. The State Department was happy to hand China over to Mao, that being the correct side of history, but is profoundly reluctant to yield Ukraine