Archive for October, 2009

Latest global warming scandal in short

Wednesday, October 7th, 2009

For the last ten years or so, every year or so a study has been issued which supposedly confirms the infamous Hockey Stick graph, which supposedly shows the world’s temperature has been pretty constant over the last thousand years or so and then has suddenly started rising in recent decades.  Global Warming!  Time to Panic!

And each of the these charts supposedly replicates each of the other charts.

For a long time, the data on which these graphs were based was kept secret, but the Royal Society finally found its missing testicles, after what I considered unreasonable delay, and demanded that the data be released.

It turns out that they all replicate each other, because they each rely on the same ten trees, the evidence of twentieth century warming being that one of these ten  grew unusually rapidly during the twentieth century as compared to fossil trees of the same type from the same area.  These trees were selected by Bricca from a much larger population of trees in the same area.

The larger population of trees, taken as a whole, shows  much the same growth pattern as the fossil trees.

Take out one tree from those ten, Yamal06, and most of the evidence for climate change vanishes.  Restore the much larger set of trees from which the ten trees were selected, and all of the evidence for climate change vanishes.

Take out one tree from half a dozen graphs of global warming in near a dozen papers, and suddenly they do not show global warming any more.

Bricca has, at this time, not yet explained why those ten trees, and not others from the same survey and same area.  And whatever his explanation, ten trees is not enough.

Inflation comes roaring back

Monday, October 5th, 2009

People who argue for “stimulus”, or more “stimulus”, often correctly point out that no one doubts that government can increase nominal GDP.   Zimbabwe and Weimar Germany are excellent examples of government rapidly increasing nominal GDP.  The question is, can government spending, particularly government spending on favored individuals and groups cozy with the government, increase useful employment, create real jobs that produce real value, create jobs where people work to produce what other people want and care about?

The cpi supposedly rose 0.4% in august – by about the same amount as employment declined. 0.4% a month, if continued, is 5% a year, and the real inflation is probably considerably higher than that.  Shadow statistics claims that the cpi calculation has undergone greater and greater adjustment since 1990, and if calculated by 1990 methods would now be showing an inflation rate 3.5 percent per year higher – which implies that present inflation, if continued would be over eight percent a year.

Five percent inflation per year is apt to have unpleasant and disturbing side effects.  Ten percent inflation is apt to have serious and gravely damaging effects, and we are heading towards ten percent.  The MSM reported the 0.4 monthly result as

underscoring the Federal Reserve’s view that inflation will be contained.

A lack of inflation will probably give Fed policy makers leeway to keep interest rates near zero in the foreseeable future to secure a recovery.

“What we’re seeing is a gradual disinflation that reflects the persistent slack in our economy,”

It is a bizarre thing to say.  If they say that for 0.4% per month, they will probably say the same for 4% per month, 30% per month, 10% per day, 100% per day, 100% per hour – which is pretty much what the German mainstream media was saying during the Weimar hyperinflation – that there was no inflation, that the problem was insufficient money in circulation and the government needed to issue lots more money to stimulate the economy, and that Jews and Anglo Saxons were causing the inflation.

When the inflation rate and the unemployment rate are similar, in that both of them are disturbingly high and rising fast, the government should be looking for solutions to both – in other words, supply side solutions – cutting taxes, spending, and regulation.

If, as seems likely, inflation becomes undeniable, expect the regular announcements that inflation is not a problem to be mixed with regular announcements that “price gougers” are a problem, doubtless due to Bush’s dreadful deregulation.  More regulation, by the wise and good regulators, who are on the side of the consumer, will doubtless be needed.

Why women want assholes

Sunday, October 4th, 2009

In most species, most of the time, female choice produces lek behavior, where females choose the sexiest male, the male that is apt to have the most offspring by the most females, and therefore likely to produce sexy sons, and males do not support or protect females.  In most species, females choose assholes.  With most creatures, if they could speak, the word for a male who loves, supports, and protects would be “loser”.  That is not true of all species all the time, nor even true of all females within some species, but that is the way to bet.

A good woman is hard to find, and needs a fair bit of monitoring, supervision and discipline.  They will be bad if allowed to be bad.  A traditional relationship only lasts if the male is the head of the family.

The survey of ancient and modern cultures undertaken in the book “Sex and Culture” shows that where where women had choice, the outcome was in large part a lek mating system, where children were raised primarily by their mothers, a system that produces people with the characteristic pathologies of bastards – produced ferals, wild animals on two legs, as in modern government housing projects.

In the ancestral environment, women’s mating choices were substantially dictated by brothers and fathers, and if they lacked strong and protective brothers and fathers, they had even less choice – any guy with a big stick did what he pleased to them.

Naturally brothers and fathers had a bias towards protective and supportive husbands, husbands who would be good fathers, a bias towards nice guys, since Dad did not want to wind up looking after his grandchildren. Women, to the very limited extent that they could choose, preferred lovers who were reproductively successful – sexy lovers who would produce sexy sons.

In the ancestral environment, Dad would pick out some boy on the basis of ability and willingness to support and protect, and if daughter did not like the boy’s looks, Dad would tie her to a tree branch and beat her like a rug.

When females had choice, they were in an environment where long term mating relationships were unlikely, so in such an environment they should choose the baddest boys, not the best boys.  Females were rarely in a position where their mating choices could improve their prospects of long term support, so are not evolved to make such choices.  That humans are a largely monogamous species is a reflection of patriarchy, not female choice.  Monogamy is a system created by patriarchs, as they had the power to make it stick, and their daughters did not.  Monogamy represents a conflict between the reproductive interests of father and daughter – they both have an interest in successful reproductive strategies, but the patriarch has an interest in reproductive strategies that minimizes the support the family has to give his daughter, while daughter does not.  It also represents a strategy he was in a better position to actually carry out than his daughter – a patriarch could engage in reprisals against departing husbands.  Being in a better position to ensure a relationship was long term, the patriarch is more inclined to take the future into account than his daughter is.

Men are naturally polygynous, women naturally hypergamous.  When men have the power, the result is either something approximating monogamy, as men share the pussy more or less equally between themselves, as in traditional Christendom, or violent destructive conflict, as some men attempt to monopolize all available pussy, as in Islam.  When women have the power, the result is the lek, a mating system that has the adverse consequences we observe in government housing projects, and in the various disturbingly backward or declining societies surveyed by “Sex and Culture

Marriage and civilization are created by men, and  imposed on women and children, sometimes forcibly and with a great deal of physical violence.

One famous and much used illustration of this is childbirth.  As long as midwifery was an exclusively female domain, it remained primitive and dreadful, with a very high death rate among mothers and children.  When men finally intruded into that field, they immediately invented the forceps.  Long term thinking, such as inventing and making elaborately transformed materials into tools is not a female characteristic.  Women, like children, have a much shorter time preference than men, perhaps because in the ancestral environment they were not in a position to assert property rights in tools, perhaps because of their shorter reproductive lifespan.

Obama hates Americans

Sunday, October 4th, 2009

Brutally honest points to an interesting statement by President Barack Hussein Obama:

We are putting the full force of the White House and the State Department to make sure that not only is this is a successful games but that visitors from all around the world feel welcome, and I think that, you know,  over the last several years sometimes sometimes, uh, that … that fundamental truth about the United States has been lost, one of the legacies I think of … of this Olympic Games in Chicago would be a restoration of that understanding of … of what the United States is all about, and the United States’ recognition of how we are linked to the world.

Observe the presupposition that foreigners fear that America is full of racists who might attack them, were it not for the vigorous force of the US government protecting people from evil and violent American citizens.

A scientific approach to politics.

Saturday, October 3rd, 2009

The Green Room and Big lizards diagnose Obama’s ideology as transnational progressivism – that he is a tranzi – that he aims at the creation of a one world government exercising highly centralized power over everyone and everything, and on this basis explain a bunch of his past policies, and make a long list of predictions for his future policies – that he aims, not to be elected president for life in 2016, which is what I was thinking because of his Honduras policy, but to be appointed UN grand poobah for life in 2016.

On that basis they make a bunch of predictions as to his future policies – science based politics.  I shall check back in 2010 and 2011 to see how these predictions are working out.

Delong’s solution

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Brad DeLong, an economist greatly respected by the Cathedral, thinks the government is not blowing enough money.

He presents a graph predicting, plausibly enough, that unemployment is going to stay high for a long time. So, he concludes the benevolent government should put those people to work – without, however, worrying as to what they will be doing, forgetting that people should work to produce the particular goods and services that other people want, or perhaps confidently believing that the wise folk of the government have lots of useful work for idle people to do, forgetting that a large part of the unemployed are unemployed because they were producing things, such as financial services or housing for non asian minorities, that the recipients are demonstrably unwilling to pay for.

His conclusion will doubtless further improve his immense status with the rest of the Cathedral, whereas were he to doubt the capability of fellow Cathedral members to put the lower orders to useful work this would with equal swiftness diminish that status

I consult the ghost of Raffles on Afghanistan

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Blog:  “Previously I talked to Xenophon on our troubles in Afghanistan.  His advice was perhaps a little bit anachronistic.  Today we are a bit too civilized for such drastic measures.”

Raffles: “Troubles?”

“A war, we are losing.  In the Hindu Kush.”

“Ah, yes, the Hindu Kush was a problem in my day.  You should leave it alone.  Dreadful climate, barren land, no gold or valuable materials, full of men with nothing of value except guns, guns that they are very good at using.”

“Unfortunately, some people from the area raided us.”

It seems that little has changed:  Well, there are three alternatives.

  1. Put up with it.
  2. Eliminate the tribes that caused the most trouble.
  3. Rule the hostile lands.

Unless it has changed a lot since my day, ruling it is likely to be impractical.  Obviously, your course of action depends on how costly the raiding is. Have there been any new raids since you started the war? What you have done already might well suffice.”

“Eliminate the Pashtun tribes?  Even Xenophon did not go quite that far.”

“I don’t mean kill them all.  Just tell them to get out, go some place else.  Dispersed, strangers amongst tribes that caused you less trouble, they cannot get together to do bad things far from home.”

“But what of those who will not or cannot go?”

“Below my pay grade.  The officer tells the sergeant, clear these people out, the sergeant tells the private. And if there is too much mess, well I am sure the tribes that attacked you also attacked other tribes who have not attacked you.  The natives of the Hindu Kush attack everyone, especially each other. You ally with local victims of the enemy tribes, and have your native auxiliaries do the potentially unpleasant work.”

“But even in your day, did that not create a certain amount of public concern?”

“You rule those parts that are easier and more profitable to rule, or influence local allies that are friendly, to uplift and civilize your native auxiliaries, and everyone forgets to ask about those people that are not around any more.  For example I abolished slavery.  Of course, had I actually abolished slavery all at once, there would have been a lot of ex slaves lazing around all day and stealing stuff all night, so I retained an arrangement where debtors could be forced to work for creditors,  and the creditors kept the books as to how much debt remained, and I made sure that potential trouble makers and lazy good-for-nothings were well supervised by creditors.  You should try it.  Abolishing slavery creates a great deal of favorable comment, sufficient that people overlook what happened in areas that, after all, you do not rule, so cannot be wholly blamed for what happened there.”

“Unfortunately we abolished slavery already.”

“Well I am sure there is something else to abolish.  Opium, perhaps, and doubtless the natives of the Hindu Kush mistreat women to this day.”