Archive for December, 2009

Tony Abbot takes aim at Copenhagen

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

Tony Abbot made news around the world, by unseating Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Australian opposition over Climategate, and then  stalling the carbon tax.   By stalling the tax, Abbot challenged the Prime Minister to a double dissolution election, which would have been a referendum on the carbon tax.  By backing down from that challenge, the Prime Minister finds himself empty handed in Copenhagen, making it much harder to reach agreement.

Abbot concludes that global warming alarmism is not, in fact, very popular among the voters, that skepticism sells when presented as delay, caution, and real science

The following skepticism will not be news to anyone that reads this blog – what will be news is that a competent politician finds it wins votes – that democracy, should the ruling elite pay attention to it, will in this case produce the less disastrous result.

one of the things that I have always found distressing about this debate Alan is the theological way in which it has been conducted – all this talk of deniers and believers, people being put on the spot and being asked to proclaim their faith one way or another.

I mean in the end this whole thing is a question of fact, not faith, or it should be a question of fact not faith and we can discover whether the planet is warming or not by measurement. And it seems that notwithstanding the dramatic increases in man made CO2 emissions over the last decade, the world’s warming has stopped.

as if this is some latter-day environmental Munich agreement kind of thing. … there is far too much hype here and we all need to be objective and dispassionate about this because man is more than capable of rising to the challenge of the environment but we won’t do it if we rush into things in a fit of environmental rectitude.

once you have got to explain why you have got this giant money-go-round taking money from polluters, then giving it back to people via these indirect mechanisms that certainly aren’t going to end up equalizing the burdens, I think then people start to say, ‘hang on a minute, this is all a bit of a con’.

there’s Kevin heading off to Copenhagen to solve problems that may or may not occur in 100 years time.

It is working for Tony Abbot, it will therefore work for Republicans, if they have the guts.

Regional Climate modeling

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

The IPCC produced extremely detailed physics based region by region models of the climate, past and present.

These physics based models reproduced the regional temperatures reported by Hadley-CRU with astonishing accuracy up to the date at which the models were issued, which astonishing accuracy is most odd since we now know that these observed regional temperatures were not observed, but were pulled out of the @%$# of Tim Mitchell, a PhD student doing the menial scutwork that important scientists were far too important to do, and therefore delegated to unimportant inferiors, in this case the minor detail of of cooking the data and washing away the heresy from the data so that it complied with the consensus:

“So what the hell did Tim do?!! As I keep asking.”

Watts up with that, and the Strata-sphere, examine these predictions and retrodictions in the light of what we now know about regional climates.

You will doubtless be as surprised as I am to hear that that the IPCC anthropogenic global warming models are not doing too well.

Provenance of the surface temperature graph of doom.

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

“So what the hell did Tim do?!! As I keep asking.”

The IPCC blessed the results of Hadley-CRU. Hadley-CRU blessed the results of the religous fanatic PhD student Tim Mitchell, and, as is clear from the Harry Readme file, no one checked how Tim produced these remarkable results.

Harry, in what is now the world’s most studied document on global warming, the Harry_Read_Me.txt file, asks “So what the hell did Tim do?!! As I keep asking.”

How then did a lowly PhD student, a creature generally treated as of only marginally greater value than lab rats, and the South Park Evangelical Church, get the remarkable power to shape the fate of nations?

The answer, of course, is government funding. Grantsmanship will always out compete real science, because bureaucrats lack real interest in either the science or the wise expenditure of the money. Important experts in grantsmanship, such as Phil Jones, are far too important to be bothered with the menial task of gathering data to support theories that have already been determined to be true for reasons of grantsmanship, so they delegate this utterly insignificant task (insignificant since the truth is determined by the scientific consensus, not mere data) to someone as menial and insignificant as the task they are to perform.

Again and again in the Climategate emails we see someone important, an eminent scientist, an important person, directing some menial and insignificant research assistant to produce data with the desired and expected results necessary to advocate a political position. Tim, one of these menial and insignificant worms in CRU, got the menial and insignificant job of providing proof that the end of the world was nigh, which he proceeded, enthusiastically, to do. Very enthusiastically. No one bothered to check how he did it. To this day, no one knows how he did it, not Phil Jones, his boss, who directed him to do it, and not the IPCC, with its hundreds of thousands of eminent reviewers, and not Harry, who (unlike the IPCC and Phil Jones) reviewed Tim’s data and programs at considerable length.

The consensus, like the Vatican, is inerrant. Embarrassing Tim Mitchell lies under the bus but his made up data goes marching on. The consensus may change, but not only is the consensus never wrong, it never was wrong.

The Cathedral, by its circular nature, is apt to become ever more detached from reality, which we are seeing in action. The Cathedral rules the world, no alternative is in sight, yet is insane and inherently becoming more insane without possibility of reform. The reaction to Climategate is to become ever more impregnably indifferent to external reality, more overtly a theocratic religion demanding human sacrifice. So long as the Cathedral rules, the west will decline.

Jessica explains peer review

Saturday, December 5th, 2009
Anthropogenic global warming

Warming trend

Climategate 3

Saturday, December 5th, 2009

You have seen the worst of the climategate emails “I’ve just completed Mike’s Nature trick … to hide the decline”

But there are over a thousand emails. What is the typical average email like?  Download them. Are most of them just showing good honest scientists industriously at work doing real science?

Here is a random sample. I selected the emails at random and entered them in this post before looking at what was in them.  I have selected three emails, 1213387146.txt, 0933245004.txt and 1138042050.txt and as I write this text, after having done the selection, have no idea how bad they will be.  This is not the worst of the worst, this is the average typical email.  We shall now see how bad the typical email is.

1213387146.txt:  Benjamin Santer threatens to sue American Liberty Publishers who disagree with his global warming results.   Court imposed truth – the government that wants global warming to be true will be paying for the lawyers to sue American Liberty Publishers, and the government will also be paying the judge who is in charge of the case.

o933245004.txt:  An assistant is instructed to change the statistical standards for the charts to what supports the argument, thereby cherry picking data, a minor transgression, but typical of global warming charts.

1138042050.txt: Ooh, by sheer luck, this one is juicy: “we cannot afford to being caught”  They are revising what will appear in the IPCC report after the official last minute, showing that the official rules are merely for outsiders, not for insiders, which implies that the IPCC is merely the voice of the conspiracy.

So we have a thousand emails, any one of which should be adequate to discredit the “science” of anthropogenic global warming.

Winning on Climategate

Friday, December 4th, 2009

The mainstream media is reluctant to report Climategate, except that evil hackers have stolen private emails in a vain attempt to create to cast doubt on a dire emergency that creates an urgent need for a massive transfer of power and wealth to a centralized one world government.

Rasmussen polls, however, indicate that the vast majority of voters are aware of the general situation – not because they have been informed about Climategate, but because of reflexive suspicion on being told they need to make sacrifices because the sky is falling.  They know the truth from wise judgements of character, not from knowledge of science.

We are also getting some traction at the top.  In addition to a leading Australian politician losing his job as a direct result of Climategate, Phil Jones has “stepped aside”.  By and large one does not “step aside” from where the bodies are buried unless the Vice Chancellor is standing in one’s office with a large gentleman from security who is there in case one needs him to respectfully assist one in finding the exit.

The man appointed to replace Phil Jones in charge of the buried bodies, Peter Liss, looks to be crypto skeptic.  Papers of which Peter Liss is listed as author used dog whistle language, subtly ambiguous phrases that mean one thing if one believes that once the most eminent scientists have formed a consensus, the science is settled, and all that remains is the minor detail of torturing the data till it repudiates its heresy and acknowledges the true faith, but which mean another, very different thing, if one adheres to the reactionary old fashioned idea that science rests of evidence and consensus is for synods, ambiguous phrases that sound as if the authors of the paper are respectfully acknowledging the authority of the consensus, but which subtly take the mickey out of it.

What is wrong with Wikipedia

Friday, December 4th, 2009

Wikepedia’s rules innately and inherently create bias. One is required to source stuff, not in reality, not in what is observable, but in what respectable authority says, which necessarily excludes Climategate from Wikipedia. Evidence based data is “original research”, thus the scientific approach is forbidden. To present the actual science, rather than the “consensus”, is a violation of Wikipedia rules

Thus, for example, respectable authority does not like anything that Darwin said, for all of it is apt to support raaaciiiiissssm. But respectable authority cannot simple throw Darwin overboard as an evil Nazi. So instead, respectable authority attributes to Darwin the advances of his predecessors, loudly praises him for those ideas, and denounces Darwin’s actual ideas as “ultra darwinism”. It is then necessary for respectable to deny that Lamarck proposed common descent, so that they can attribute common descent to Darwin, in place of Darwinism. And so, if one quotes Lamarck’s own words discussing common descent, this will be deleted from Wikipedia in fifteen seconds, and replaced with some eminent academic telling us what Lamarck supposedly said. Quoting Lamarck as evidence of what Lamarck said is “original research”, and obviously that is unacceptable in Wikipedia. Indeed, any evidence based assertion is “original research”. and thus all of Climategate, and all of the results of Steve McIntyre, are “original research”. The rule against original research, necessarily prohibits evidence or facts based on evidence from appearing in Wikipedia.

In place of the “no original research” rule, we need to have a rule that privileges evidence and deprecates authority. And that rule is: Nullius in Verba

The Cathedral loses

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

When the mainstream media, academia, the state department, senior civil servants, and the leading politicians (the Cathedral) get behind an issue, they win, no matter how stupid, evil, or simply insane that position is. And if they are temporarily stalled, there will be some compromise, followed, when no one is looking, by a compromise on that compromise, until they have what they were determined to get.

It is interesting therefore that so far, neither president Zelaya, nor anyone resembling him, is president for life of Honduras.

In a free and fair election, conducted with lots of international observers, the candidate the Cathedral did not like, won.

Quietly, furtively, and shamefacedly, the US has announced it will recognize the result, despite previously ranting that if free and fair elections were permitted, it would legitimize a coup – the “coup” being the procedures that the Honduran constitution prescribed to prevent free and fair elections from being subverted by political power.

The Honduran Constitution prescribes swift, simple, informal, public, and drastic solutions to such problems. This seems to work against the Cathedral, which likes a cloud of complexity, compromise, and secrecy to conceal its shenanigans. It was a “coup” because it was not the kind of process that the Cathedral could manipulate without anyone understanding what was going on.