Archive for January, 2020

A prediction.

Saturday, January 25th, 2020

Because of rationalization, prediction is a good test of theories. One can always with sufficient cleverness find a hundred and one explanations of past events that fit your model. Wrong predictions indicate indicate false models, and right predictions indicate true models, but retrodiction is always suspiciously accurate.

Correct retrodiction is sometimes valid evidence for the truth of a model when it makes sense out of phenomena that were formerly arbitrary, for example Newton inventing calculus and universal gravitation to explain Kepler’s laws, the oxygen theory replacing the phlogiston theory, and the red pill and evolutionary psychology making sense out of female behavior that is destructive, self destructive, and seemingly irrational, for example their failure to cooperate with our rape and sexual harassment laws. But what tends to happen is that each case that fails to fit the false model, for example miasma theory, is explained away and vanishes down the memory hole, even if, as with miasma theory, a whole lot of people die in that failure. One correct prediction for germ theory (John Snow’s pump) had more impact that a thousand failures of miasma theory to explain past deaths. For three decades, Apocalyptic Anthropogenic Global Warming has always retrodicted past temperatures with pinpoint accuracy, while always predicting climate catastrophe with millions climate refugees or dead in two decades, with the predictions of catastrophe getting their dates moved forward a few years ever few years.

I predict that from here on, every federal judge and every red state judge is going to quietly and silently toss every past case and every recent precedent down the memory hole and stop obstructing ICE (immigration and Customs Enforcement) and the BIA.

My model of the judicial system is that the court and appeals process is Kayfabe, that the real decisions are made in secret for secret for reasons, like the outcome of matches in professional wrestling, that the judiciary is corrupt from top to bottom, and that its decisions are frequently unjust, when justice conflicts, as it often does, with secret commands and secret policies.

Notice that when the judiciary is bypassed or ignored, the results tend to be quite good. Notice, for example, that every patent that gets enforced is bogus, and that legitimate patents never get enforced. Notice that Duterte’s death squads were hugely popular. I was in Davao when Duterete was mayor, and everyone, with only a single exception, was mighty keen on them. And the one exception probably needed killing. Notice that the Australian border control authority gets to make quasi judicial decisions, for example tearing up Sultan and Nassar’s tourist visas and then throwing them in jail without access to judges and lawyers, and the left is never able to find a case where they did this unjustly, as justice would be perceived by normal people. The left screamed to the heavens about the extrajudicial imprisonment of Sultan and Nassar, and the public never took any interest. Even the astroturf was checking their watches, while the courts make horrifying cruel, unjust, and obviously politically motivated and commanded decisions all the time, as for example Paul Manafort.

My model of judiciary is that they were under orders that if any man set foot in the US, the judiciary was to give him lifetime residence, welfare, and the vote, even if he came here illegally and was making a living by robbing and killing. Therefore, since a single judge has abruptly reversed himself, the secret orders have abruptly changed, and henceforth every judge will turn a deaf ear to illegals and people who (like Sultan, Nassar and Dehghani Hossein) arrive on visas that likely fail to reflect the real intent of their visit.

If we suppose that the judicial process is real, rather than kayfabe, then one minor judge’s miraculous change of heart should not be followed by every judge everywhere having the same miraculous change of heart at the same time. We shall see.

Current news

Thursday, January 16th, 2020

We in Flight 93. The plane is headed directly to the ground. Trump is in the cockpit fighting the hijackers, but even if he wins, that is no guarantee he can pull the plane out of the dive.

I normally don’t pay much attention to the latest political events, nor cover them in this blog, because it is mostly a distraction, intended to confuse and mislead. It is more important to cover the long term trends. The democrats crossed the Rubicon with Sheriff Joe.

However the coup is starting to go critical, and it might make a difference. Judge Roberts is a deep state operative who is connected to the infamous Trump Dossier, in that he is running cover for the Fisa court, hence the Republicans correctly insist he follows precedent by reigning over the impeachment, rather than ruling over the impeachment. We shall see what happens, but even if he puts lipstick on the pig, not going to make a difference the outcome of the Senate trial itself. He will be working with Schiff, openly or furtively, but Schiff’s dog won’t hunt. What might well make a difference is a change in who is providing security during the trial.

Trump plans to call Wheres Hunter, Adam Schiff, and the “Whistleblower” Eric Ciaramella.

Eric Ciaramella is a low level deep state operative who was involved in the infamous Trump Dossier, which gets mighty close to incriminating Judge Roberts personally. He is part of the FBI coverup of misconduct related to the dossier, and if low level operatives get busted in a Trump self coup, they will probably have no end of dirt on higher ups, thereby likely opening up another Trump supreme appointment.

Attorney General Barr understands what is going on – a holiness spiral that leads to the holy abandoning the rules that make peace possible within the elite.

Their holy mission is to use the coercive power of the State to remake man and society in their own image, according to an abstract ideal of perfection. Whatever means they use are therefore justified because, by definition, they are a virtuous people pursing a deific end. They are willing to use any means necessary to gain momentary advantage in achieving their end, regardless of collateral consequences and the systemic implications.

He is preparing for a situation of duelling arrest warrants, where each faction in the political elite orders the arrest of the other faction, which was obviously going to happen eventually once they arrested Sheriff Joe, the only question being how long before the proverbial hits the fan. Barr is campaigning like a politician for support among the cops on the beat, and Trump is going after warrior support in ways quite disproportionate to their voting weight.

I don’t expect it to happen soon, though it well might – but it is looming near enough to impact political behavior. If the Durham report is not another greywash, it may well lead to the arrest of low level operatives who will likely finger Judge Roberts, leading to his impeachment. I am still betting on the shooting to start around 2026 or so, but the Democrats eagerness to get this off to the Senate, where it would go down in flames if normality continues, suggests the deep state has or had plans for a big surprise during the Senate trial.

During the House hearings, they were fishing for support among the brass. I am inclined to believe that what happened is that they found support among the brass, hence the desire to get impeachment done in a hurry, rather than continue milking it forever, but after the last minute the brass discovered that they lacked support among the praetorians, and changed their minds, hence the desire to stall.

A less dramatic and conspiratorial explanation is that Judge Roberts is in their pocket, and the Clinton precedent denies him the power to rig the trial, so they want to ditch the Clinton precedent in any way that they can. They are arguing about how the trial should be conducted so that the conduct of the trial gets thrown into Judge Robert’s lap.

The trial, assuming it is not interrupted by a change in security at the Senate and the arrest of key people in the Trump administration, is likely to sink the narrative, and, more importantly, get Judge Roberts out of a position where he could give constitutional color to a coup. If the Durham report opens with an arrest of deep staters, they are likely to attempt to respond by arresting Trump and his administration. We are likely to get dueling arrest warrants, and we don’t want Judge Roberts in a position where he has judicial authority over Trump while we have duelling arrest warrants.

The obvious risk is that the deep state, instead of sitting on its ass waiting for Barr and Durham to launch arrest warrants against the deep state, pre-emptively arrests all key personnel suspected of loyalty to Trump during the Senate trial and replaces Senate security, whereupon Judge Roberts issues a ruling that this is completely normal and entirely legal. I think that was their plan during the house hearings, though I think that Trump and Barr have forestalled this plan by securing praetorian support.

If the deep state do sit on their ass, we are not going to get the Durham report until after the trial.

We have known since 2012 that the deeps state has been acting illegally. If they continue to get away with acting illegally, the hijackers are still in the cockpit and are still flying the plane into the ground. Removal from the cockpit will manifest as a storm of arrests. Which is likely to result in duelling arrest warrants.

If Barr arrests the deep state without himself being arrested, they are going to sing like canaries, giving Trump autocratic power, because he will be able to purge the government and the Democratic party.

The conservative projection is that Trump leaves power in 2024, when his second term runs out, that the Republic continues as normal

I think it more likely he will leave power to prison, or become Caesar Augustus and bequeath the role of Imperator to Don Junior.

Once the elite started using direct state coercion on each other, it became inevitable that we will eventually get Bonapartist government. The only question is how soon, and how much bloodshed?

What I hope for is that after the Senate Trial, then the Durham report opens with a sudden storm of arrests, and Trump gets coronated as Caesar Augustus in 2020. What I fear is more likely is increasing use of violence and coercion by the elite with inconclusive and indecisive outcomes, eventually leading to full scale war around 2026 or so, possibly involving nuclear weapons, followed, after years, decades, or centuries, by a Stalin restoring order.

Let us pray that Trump Senior becomes Caesar Augustus, and Trump Junior becomes Emperor Constantine.