Archive for the ‘economics’ Category

Europe crosses the Rubicon

Thursday, January 20th, 2011

Ireland has started to issue its own Euros, or rather counterfeit its own Euros, since it has no legal authority to issue Euros – not that anyone worries about legal authority these days.

If any one country of Europe can get away with issuing Euros, then the political benefit is captured by the one country issuing Euros, while the inflationary effect is experience by all of Europe.  This guarantees over issue of Euros.

The proposed cure for this problem is more central authority, a United States of Europe – but there was already central authority to stop people from issuing their own Euros.  Irish issue of Euros is illegal, but the European Central Bank lacks the balls to say so, and forming a United States Of Europe would not give the European central bank a testosterone infusion.

The two most powerful democratically elected people in Europe, Ms. Merkel and Mr. Sarkozy, have, under pressure from their voters, prescribed a solution:  The Deauville pact.

The Deauville pact if implemented would mean that Greece and Ireland would  go broke.  Irishmen would go the ATM, attempt to withdraw cash from their bank accounts, and no cash would come out.  Pensions and doles issued by the Irish and Greek governments would bounce – that is to say, solvent banks would turn them down, and while insolvent banks would cheerfully accept them, the insolvent banks would be unable to give cash for them.

The European Central Bank is, however, reluctant to go along with this plan.  But if they are reluctant to stop people spending Euros they do not have, or unable to stop people spending Euros they do not have, Euros will, in the end, be worthless.

The more solvent countries of Europe could save themselves from this shipwreck by issuing their own currencies – franks and marks.  Of course, that would be easier if they actually were solvent.  That Europe is drifting into a system that makes financial collapse unavoidable is more of a symptom than a cause.  Genuinely solvent nations would unhesitatingly cut the wastrels off without a penny, to teach them thrift, which is what the the Deauville pact proposed.  The problem is that every bureaucrat fears that if one government goes broke, people will doubt the next.  Big spending governments fear to let bigger spending governments go broke, lest their own solvency be doubted.

The Deauville pact was more the politicians of France and Germany assuring each other and the voters that they were indeed solvent and could act in the macho manner that solvent enterprises can act, than it was any real intent to act.

Creeping progressivism

Monday, January 17th, 2011

Mc Cain is horrified when a bunch of progressive lawyers demand that banks have their paperwork in order before foreclosing. He does not realize that he has implicitly conceded everything that matters to those progressive lawyers.

He complains that this will have a detrimental effect on the availability of credit:

this action could have a catastrophic impact on home values and mortgage lending …

… lenders are discouraged from offering mortgages except to the most affluent and credit-worthy buyers.

Surely, after recent events, lenders should not be offering mortgages except to the most affluent and credit-worthy buyers.

The problem is not that a bunch of lefty liberal lawyers demand that banks have their paperwork in order. The problem is that the government intervened to make mortgages easily available any deadbeat, and that this necessitated taking a few short cuts with the paperwork, indeed necessitated taking a lot of quite drastic shortcuts with the paperwork.

And now the government is demanding both that mortgages continue to be easily available to any drunken unemployed deadbeat wetback, and that the banks keep their paperwork in order.

The remedy is not that the government should refrain from demanding clear, simple, straightforward and accurate paperwork before foreclosure. The remedy is that the government refrain from demanding that mortgages continue to be easily available to any drunken unemployed broke deadbeat wetback,

No enemies to the left, no friends to the right

Sunday, January 16th, 2011

A leftist has no enemies to the left, and no friends to the right.  Thus everyone that he is a friend to, is an enemy to him, and everyone who is a friend to him, he is an enemy to.

Back in the day of the Soviet Union, we regularly saw this dynamic with the “popular front”.  The popular front, a coalition between moderates and radicals, would seemingly be dominated and led by moderate bourgeois, which moderates would be swiftly dumped once the front took over.  But not only would the radicals think they had it coming for not being left enough, the moderates themselves seemed to feel they had it coming for not being left enough.

We also saw this dynamic in the Soviet Union during the purges.  An influential Soviet officer and/or party member, a long way from Moscow, surrounded by armed people personally loyal to him, would be summoned to Moscow to face torture and death.  Instead of looting the armory and fleeing for the hills, off he would dutifully go to Moscow.

And today, we once again see this dynamic in the Tucson murders.  Jared Lee Loughner murdered a bunch of leftists.  Naturally, many people, myself among them, figured Loughner for a Tea Partier, but it soon became apparent that Loughner was a leftist killing them for insufficient leftism.

And so, naturally and predictably, Loughner was forgiven, but the Tea Party was not. J Eric Fuller, who was shot in the knee by Loughner, announced his forgiveness of Loughner, but threatened to kill Tea Partier Trent Humpries.

Here is a word of advice for any leftists planning to die in blaze of glory killing those who commit themselves insufficiently to the one true faith: Practice on a shooting range first.  Get them in the head or torso, not the knee.  Remember: torso.

Gabrielle Gifford’s shooter was a lefty

Tuesday, January 11th, 2011

Two down for the price of one!

I should have seen that he was a lefty from the fact he made no effort to escape.  A rightist assassin would have attempted to cover his own ass.

He seems to have been an antisemite of Jewish descent – classic left wing crazy.

Right wing rhetoric probably contributed.  The left’s self hating identity crisis certainly contributed.  But the root cause of rising tensions is the approaching Cloward–Piven crisis.

The root cause of the approaching Cloward–Piven crisis is that the government has purchased itself a left wing electorate, which electorate daily gets more expensive, and purchased left wing unity, which daily gets more expensive.  A shakeout approaches.  During that shakeout, some part of the left will be thrown overboard.  The Cloward Piven strategy is that there will be a violent self coup in which that part of the left which is deemed insufficiently left wing will be thrown overboard – thus as little of the left as possible will be thrown overboard.

I would, of course, prefer a solution in which the established left was purged from government and quasi governmental institutions in the way that Germany was denazified.  Check the resumes sent to every institution that is governmental or government backed.  If some substantial proportion of the resumes give left wing credentials, then the institution should be suspected of being government sponsored leftism.  If hiring practices favor those with left wing credentials, as for example the Department of Education, the Department of Energy, the NEA, the State Department, and so on and so forth, then the institution is a government sponsored leftist wing organization.  The organization should be abolished, and membership of that organization should be treated the way membership of a Nazi organization was treated in postwar Germany.

The British government is trying something moderate, something in the middle between these revolutionary extremes, muddling through.  It does not appear to be working, though early days yet, to soon to tell what the outcome will be.

To avoid or resolve the Cloward Piven crisis by normal constitutional and democratic means is going to look at least a little bit like the revolutionary de-leftification strategy I outlined above, modeled on de-nazification, for the basic problem is that a left wing electorate, and left wing unity, costs too much.  Even the ultra leftist Cloward–Piven strategy, of resolving the crisis with a left wing self coup, has a little bit of de-leftification in it.   After the Cloward–Piven self coup, some leftists who are at present the recipients of large amounts of government largess, are going to find themselves re-defined as rightists and cease being recipients of government largess.

Gabrielle Giffords needed killing

Sunday, January 9th, 2011

And so do most of congress, most of the regulators, and most of the businessmen in the revolving door between business and regulation.

All the conservative criticism of her seems to be disappearing off the web, but what the hell, she stank, critics pointed out she stank, so someone killed her.   It might have been a leftist who did not think she was left enough, but chances are, was a conservative. Yes, chances are that unkind remarks by conservatives got her killed.  Pity it was not someone who mattered more.  Her platform was to create lots of high paying jobs in government and quasi governmental activities – in other words, to transfer wealth from productive people who mostly voted against her, to unproductive people who mostly voted for her, thus moving the nation generally leftwards.

As the nation plunges into bankruptcy, as the Cloward–Piven crisis approaches, we might kill enough similar wrongdoers to eventually get out of the crisis.  I don’t really see any other path to resolving the crisis other than watering the tree of liberty in the usual fashion.

High returns on IQ between countries, but low returns within country

Tuesday, December 21st, 2010

If we control for academic qualification, there is zero or negative return on IQ within a country.  That is to say, of two people of different IQ but same country and the same academic qualification, the smarter one will have similar or lower socioeconomic success.

If we do not control for academic qualification, IQ still does not make a very large difference.  Of two people of very different IQ, but the same country, and academic qualifications typical for their IQ, the much smarter one will not be much richer

I think it likely that this is a manifestation of the observed fact that high IQ people tend to be nerds, socially low status, tend to get in trouble socially.

However, if we compare between countries, countries where people have slightly higher average IQ tend to be much more prosperous than similar countries with slightly lower average IQ.

A two standard deviation difference in an individual person’s IQ predicts only about a 30% difference in his wage.  But half a standard deviation difference in a country’s average IQ score predicts a 200% difference in the average wage in that country.

Why do high IQ people do so badly?

Suppose you have a bunch of people together.  And the crowd makes a mistake about X, or, which comes to much the same thing, a high status person in the crowd makes a mistake about X.  The high IQ kid is going to say “X is wrong”.  But no one else in the crowd can tell whether X is right or wrong.  They will think it is a matter of opinion, like what flavor of icecream is better, or a matter of authority, an arbitrary rule decreed by someone, and this kid is wrongfully claiming authority to decree that rule.

And will conclude that the smart kid is inappropriately throwing his weight around, is acting inappropriately for his status, they will be insulted, offended, and angered at what they incorrectly perceive as a claim of status and authority. And so will attempt to correct his swelled head, will tell him his status is low, and his status claim inappropriately high.

So the smart kid in the group, like the stupid kid in the group, is going to wind up at the bottom – and very likely with an income to match.  The high IQ kid is going to be a social failure in a group where the majority is stupid.

In the kingdom of the blind, the one eyed man is at the bottom.

So if you want society to be run by smart people, that society has to stream the kids, group smart kids with smart kids, and dumb kids with dumb kids, and get its leadership from the leadership that emerges from leading the smart group.

If, on the other hand, society thinks that everyone should go to university, and the elite universities select their students primarily on political correctness and cultural similarity to the existing elite rather than smarts, then your society is going to wind up being run by people who are not much brighter than average, and most of the wealth and power is going to be in the hands of people who are not much brighter than average for that country.

The smart group will do well, but the smart individual will do badly.  Thus a smarter country is much richer, but a smarter individual is little richer, and may well be be poorer.

It follows that the way for the smart kid to succeed is to get in with a smart group of about his own intelligence that is in charge of its own destiny, get in on the right track early, and the way for a country to succeed is to make the formation of such groups easy and natural.

about one third banksters, two thirds …

Monday, December 6th, 2010

The crisis is about one third theft by banksters, one third theft by rude, arrogant, and uncivil civil servants, and one third theft by the bastard spawn of welfare moms.

The split is not between rich and poor, but between tax consumers and tax payers.

I have emphasized the role of affirmative action loans in this crisis, and on the evidence, the great majority of the American dud loans were made to Hispanics  – though it was highly profitable for the wealthy banksters to arrange these dud loans, take the fees, and pass the loans onto someone else, and it was highly profitable for middle class loan offices to fill out the loan documents with whatever story would get the loan made, and then have the applicant sign a pack of lies that he was quite incapable of reading.

To which people reply by pointing at the crisis in Europe, where affirmative action lending is not a big problem.  So in Europe, the problem is supposedly all banksters.

No it is not all banksters:  The breakdown on the latest Irish bailout is thirty five billion to bail out the banks, and fifty billion “to shore up the public finances and allow the government to keep making welfare payments and cover other expenses such as health and education.”

So the stupid violent bastard spawn of Irish welfare mums are getting a major chunk of the loot, even though by a different mechanism to the way the stupid violent bastard spawn of American welfare mums got a major share of the loot.

The underlying mechanism of the crisis is that the regnant left (the Cathedral) buys as many votes as it needs to stay in power. As its internal discipline breaks down, it becomes more and more corrupt, hence more and more expensive, requiring ever greater expenditures on vote buying. To buy votes as cheaply as possible, it prefers low intelligence semi criminal immigrants and bastard welfare spawn, since their votes cost less, so sets about flooding society with low intelligence immigrants and bastard welfare spawn.

This does not mean there is any possibility that elections could fix the problem – there was no daylight visible between Bush and Obama, and very little daylight visible between Obama and Palin. Rather, what it means is that the measures that are taken to ensure that elections cannot fix the problem are becoming increasingly drastic.

If Keynesians believed what they say they believe …

Sunday, December 5th, 2010

Nobel prize winning economist Krugman tells us we need stimulus, that is to say, more deficit spending.  Government needs to spend more to stimulate the economy, he tells us.

Government spending puts money in peoples pockets.  Then they spend stuff, so people get hired to produce stuff, so the newly employed get money too.  Being employed rather than unemployed, they will produce and spend.  So when the economy is in recession, government spending on pretty much anything is the best investment there can be – or so Keynesians tell us, so Nobel Prize winning economist Krugman tells us.

Despite the government vigorously applying the remedy that Krugman so enthusiastically recommended, the US economy is still in obviously in recession, not withstanding official government statistics that assure us that everything is coming up roses.  Krugman tells us this is because the government did not spend enough.  It needed to spend more.  Spending cuts are destructive, they are economic illiteracy.  That some republicans suggest spending cuts when unemployment is so high shows us that they are ignorant cavemen, unlike the highly sophisticated and knowledgeable Nobel Prize winning economist Krugman

But if a Keynesian believes in Keynesianism, should not he believe that tax cuts are better than spending increases?  There is after all no such thing as a shovel ready project.  Government spending programs take many years to get moving, and once moving tend to grow unstoppably.  If the government has to manage the total level of demand, stimulating it in recession, cutting in booms (though somehow Keynesians never seem to think that a cut is necessary in booms) then taxes, which can be swiftly and easily raised and lowered, are the instrument to do it, rather than spending which cannot be quickly increased, and once increased, can never be cut.

If spending cuts in times of high unemployment are economic illiteracy, should not tax rises in times of high unemployment also be economic illiteracy?

Apparently not.  According to Nobel Prize winning economist Krugman Republicans are economic illiterates for proposing cuts and they are economic illiterates for opposing tax rises.

If Keynesians actually believed Keynesianism was true, they would advocate tax cuts whenever unemployment was too high – and since a Keynesian never thinks unemployment is too low, they would advocate tax cuts day in and day out.

Decline of the west

Friday, November 26th, 2010

The last man on the moon left in 1972

The tallest building in the united states was finished in 1974.

Cars are becoming humbler.

US electricity production was growing exponentially until 1972.  After 1972 it grew more slowly.  Per capita electricity consumption  seems likely to have peaked around 2007 or so.

Supposedly GDP is still growing rapidly, just as supposedly inflation is zero, but it seems improbable that GDP is growing when per capita electricity consumption is not.

One could present all sorts of rationalizations for the decline in manned space exploration – for example that manned space exploration was a polite way of demonstrating superior capability to nuke the other side, and supposedly we are so much more civilized and mature now that the need for such chest beating has diminished.

However, by 2000, we have more compelling evidence of decline.  The buildings damaged or destroyed in 9/11 have not been repaired or replaced.

The west is the past. America sinks into Eurosocialism, while Europe becomes the western satrapies of the new Persian empire. Every rising civilization was a lender, innovator, and investor, every declining civilization a borrower.  California used to be the place where the future was invented, but no longer.

The west’s lead was California’s lead.  And California is no more.

Where, for example, was the netbook commercialized?  Who invented and built the “Amazon” Kindle?  Who is today creating the blue light lasers that are the core of every DVD reader and writer?

The Kindle was developed in Taiwan, by Eink.   It is some standard computing parts wrapped around a new display technology invented, developed and manufactured by Eink.

Indians looking to study abroad rate Melior in Singapore higher than Stanford in the USA.

Today, our universities turn out people trained in political correctness and “diversity”.  Every male CS graduate can parse a boolean expression, but most female CS graduates cannot, indicating that a male needs to be able to parse a boolean expression to get a CS degree, and a female does not. The end stage of this process is that no one needs to be able to parse a boolean expression, but everyone needs to be able to hate dead white males.

China leads the world in coal to liquids technology.

China leads the world in internet based transactions.

The simplest explanation for the fact that western research seems to have fallen off a cliff is that we are now reaching the point where hating dead white males is a more important academic qualification than anything else.  Doubtless it is in reality more complicated than that, but the simplest explanation works quite well:  Consider, for example, the recent demonization of Chagnon.  The most striking factor was the ignorance and stupidity of the academic associations condemning him.  They just did not know stuff.  It was as if they don’t read books by dead white males, as if they feared that reading such stuff might contaminate their minds with dangerous thoughts.

What we have had for some time in academia is theocracy, not meritocracy, and theocracy tends to promote those whose faith is most zealous and reliable.  It is easier to have zealous and reliable faith if you are dumb as two planks glued together.

Who is at the top of Academia:  I suppose the tip top crust are the people who condemned Chagnon, and people like the leading scientists of global warming, Mann and Phil Jones, who are demonstrably not nearly as smart as I am.  Mann, for example, keeps making ludicrous and amateurish mistakes in his statistics, and any time Phil Jones wants something scientific done, he summons a post grad, and tells the postgrad to produce a chart that proves such and such, suggesting that Phil Jones cannot produce such charts, nor tell if the chart actually does prove such and such.

Mann’s work demonstrates he is simply stupid.  Mann’s power over other scientists demonstrates that simply stupid people are on top.  Stupid people on top provide a simple explanation of why science does not get done.

How did Mann get to the top?  By telling the state what it wants to hear, by political correctness.

Demonstrably, the people in charge of science and research are not the tip top crust.  They got where they are by hating dead white males more than anyone.

The fact that undergraduates are marked on the basis of race, gender, and political correctness is fairly harmless.  That academics get power over other academics on the basis of political correctness has not been so harmless, and we are today paying the price, in that western research is failing.

Singapore has sustained its rate of growth.  Taiwan has sustained its rate of growth.  Therefore China is likely to sustain its rate of growth.

Assuming China grows like Singapore from now on, and the US grows like Europe (counting European growth as real, even though such growth as occurs is government employees, whose product is valued at cost, which cost grows at astonishing rate) then China should surpass the US in total GDP by 2019 or so.

China should surpass the US in GDP per head, as Singapore already has, by around 2045 or so.  Taiwan should surpass the US in GDP per head in 2018 or so.

The financial system of the west is collapsing because the fed and its bureaucrats have the mission to replace financial panics with wise regulatory authority – which might work if wise regulatory authority had the will to punish elite wrongdoing the way financial panics did, and resist the desire of politicians to use the financial system as a piggy bank for vote buying the way bankers threatened by financial panics did.  Since brave regulators are not to be found, the replacement is not working.

The last time the west stalled, it stalled for four hundred years under intellectual stagnation induced by theocracy, from 1277 to 1648.

We are seeing multiple simultaneous crises.  Academia is a thousand loudspeakers controlled by one microphone, and that microphone in the hands of an idiot.

All the massive financial crime that the financial crisis exposed <http://blog.jim.com/economics/mortgage-fraud-predatory-borrowing.html> continues unpunished and unabated, foreshadowing another, even bigger financial crisis coming up fast.

The graffiti on the buildings that are now owned by the Federal Reserve foretells our future.

We are also seeing an explosive gold rush in government as rent seeking monopolies multiply.  Thus it used to be, for example, that the local council gave itself a monopoly of water and sewage, though there is in practice no rationale for the sewage monopoly – septic tanks and highly localized sewage farms are more economical.  Large centralized sewage facilities beloved of councils and council unions suffer severe diseconomies of scale due to the high cost of  piping sludge any reasonable distance. Seeing the lucrative flow of money, every other level of government gets into the act.  Just as to get anything done, a private individual needs multiple permits from the council, each requiring him to hire numerous “consultants” at $400 per hour, the council needs multiple permits from state and federal governments, requiring the council to hire numerous “consultants” at $100 000 per hour.  The tip is emitting methane!  Oh the horror.  Someone official comes to officially look at the methane, charges  $100,000 for looking, and issues an enforceable “recommendation” for an open ended and indefinite series of remediation measures, each of which will require another look.

Oh what did we do before there were people to officially and highly scientifically investigate the fact that tips are apt to pong?  What would we do without government to supervise government?  And surely any problems that might occur can be easily remedied by providing yet another layer of regulatory authority to regulate the regulators that are regulating the regulators that are regulating the local council.

This, like the housing boom is unsustainable.  A single monopoly will charge inefficiently high prices and produce inefficiently low product, which is indefinitely sustainable. Multiple layered monopolies suffer a coordination problem that results in them charging infinite prices and producing zero product, as each attempts to get the majority of the squeeze.

This problem is remediable only through collapse or foreign conquest.  As I have remarked several times, the reason that Dubai can build high towers and we no longer can, is that in Dubai, you only need the approval of one theocrat and one holy religion.

I hope for collapse, since foreign conquest is likely to be unpleasant.  Last time around, however we had stagnation for four hundred years.   Collapse would be preferable.

Democracy is self destructing, as it inexorably moves further and further to the left – the fate of the past democracies of Athens and Rome.

Like Hell There’s No Inflation

Monday, November 22nd, 2010

Business Insider tells us:

  • Post Raisin Bran goes from 2.50 to 3.00 per box at Walmart.
  • My favorite yogurt goes from .50 to .58 each at Walmart.
  • Cherry tomatoes go from 4.98 to 5.98 per package.
  • Walnuts go from 9.98 to 13.98 per bag at Sam’s.
  • Bottom round goes from 2.48 to 2.68 per pound at Sam’s.

Al Dente tells us

What was once purchased for weekly meals at the supermarket for under $100, now exceeds $120. We have cut back on many items and we still pay more for our weekly food bill.

Econbrowser, however, tells us everything is coming up roses:

If the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHTS) holds, then these movements imply that as of 11/8, the average inflation rate over the next five years will be a breathtaking 1.6%!

Here is a free clue for Econbrowser: The tips market does not predict what the inflation rate will be. It predicts what the government will report the inflation rate to be – and indeed, the government is going to report near zero inflation during the next five years – because the government thinks you are stupid.