Archive for the ‘economics’ Category

The whitewash proceeds

Saturday, October 16th, 2010

One of the bigger criminals in the mortgage scam was Former Countrywide CEO Mozilo.  The SEC has made a symbolic settlement with him and a couple of his accomplices for seventy two million dollars, not a dime of which he has to pay personally, and which would be peanuts even if he had to pay it personally.  As a part of the agreement, all potentially embarrassing details associated with his crimes are sealed from nosy outsiders.

What little money will be paid, will be paid from an escrow fund the company set up to cover shareholder litigation – and since Countrywide was taken over by the FDIC, this means that the government is paying the money to itself.

The enormous mortgage-bond scandal

Friday, October 15th, 2010

Felix Salmon has found an interesting document in the financial crisis inquiry hearings.

It seems the banks not only knew that the loans they were selling to investors generally failed to meet underwriting standards, they were so careless as to have documents lying around saying so in plain English.

Seems like they were a bank of morons.  When I was involved in criminal conspiracies, none of us would write in plain English, and we would very rarely speak in plain English.

But if you are a regular visitor to his blog, that we are ruled by dim witted criminals is unlikely to surprise you. What has, however, surprised me, is that the political branch of the conspiracy failed to swiftly throw the bankster branch to the wolves and blame them for everything. If I was in Obama’s shoes, in 2009 I would have been preparing federal prosecutions to generate interesting headlines just before the 2010 mid term elections, but instead both political parties continue in cover up mode.

The ruling elite is too soft on each other to hold on to power for very much longer. As soon as we get a really big crisis, are likely to fall.

Foreclosure fraud chaos

Thursday, October 14th, 2010

Pines and Associates reports that:

Most [mortgage] loans are securitized and most investors have filed class action suits. He finds those suits and joins them on behalf of clients as a “special interest” in the suit.

This is Armageddon for the financial system. The underlying problem is that finance runs on trust, and these days they are all crooks, so the entire financial system has seized up.

Any solution to the problem that could possibly work is far more drastic than anything proposed by anyone on either side of politics. For starters, you would have to send everyone involved in the CRA scam to prison, roll affirmative action back all the way to Marie Curie, and that is only the beginning of what is needed.

Conspiracy

Thursday, October 14th, 2010

If you watch the reality show “survivor”, you will have noticed that in any power struggle, the winners usually have invisible connections – there is a group that conceals from outsiders that it is a group.  Conspiracy tends to be a substantial part of any winning strategy.  Conspiracies are therefore as common as cockroaches and crabgrass.  Conspiracy theory has a deserved bad name because it tends to be invoked to explain away unwanted evidence, as for example Chomsky explaining that the Khmer Rouge were good guys under attack by the CIA, shortly before he explained that they were bad guys installed in power by the CIA.

But while we should not believe in conspiracies with the ability to program millions of refugees to say unkind things about noble mild mannered agrarian reformers, nor conspiracies that can bring out large mobs on the streets to lynch beloved leaders of the proletariat, we should believe in conspiracies that link together a handful of powerful people in a handful of powerful, but supposedly separate and independent, organizations.   The state department really was full of commies.

By definition, a conspiracy is small.  Astroturf, therefore is a signature of conspiracy. If there is a real mob in the streets, a conspiracy is unlikely to have much control over it.

Another good signature of conspiracy is people mysteriously rising to power from nowhere, as the current leader of the British Labor party. Ed Miliband has a mysteriously invisible powerbase. Before 2005, no one had heard of him. Then he is nominated to a safe seat – which usually only happens to people who have been working for years to inherit the seat, promptly becomes minister, and then, leader of the labor party.

Tracing connections, we find a lot of odd links between the London School of Economics, the people who made the 10:10 no pressure video, and Ed Miliband – revealing the presence of a greenie conspiracy that is

  1. Powerful
  2. Composed of morons
  3. Unable to get its agenda through

The foreclosure scandal

Tuesday, October 12th, 2010

Did you make payments on your mortgage?  Can you prove it?  Can you prove you made the payments to the right entity?  Who is the right entity?  Does anyone know?  Mortgage servicers don’t have great incentives to get distressed homeowner’s records correct

The foreclosure scandal, at first sight, does not seem like much of a scandal.  A bunch of people borrowed large amounts of money against houses, usually with false or nonexistent documentation of their income and assets and grossly inflated valuations of the houses.  Then they did not make their payments.  Then some random person attempts to foreclose on them, and they complain that the guy trying to foreclose lacks standing to foreclose.  What is so bad?

Somehow, one does not feel any great sensation of outrage and pity, but yes, there is a scandal here and it is really bad.  Also very, very complicated.

The dud loans were made into dud mortgage backed securities, which were divided into tranches, some of the tranches being more senior, that is to say less dud, than the others.  So when it all has to be unwound, it is a total mess and complete chaos.  To make things worse, the various entities that arranged the loans were fly by night scamsters who cannot be found.  Even worse, the senior tranches all wound up being sold to the government:  Freddy Mac, Fannie May, the Federal Reserve, and the FHA.

Why does the feds holding senior tranches make things worse?  Because the holder of the senior tranche should be defending his own interests, should be making sure that foreclosures benefit himself, should be organizing the foreclosures to be most lucrative to himself, but the federal government could not run a pie stand.  The labyrinthine and rigid federal bureaucracy  is at the top composed largely of people who graduated in political correctness from the most eminent universities.  Which means that these assets (the rights to foreclose on various houses) are ill defended, therefore apt to be stolen at worst, and incompetently exercised at best.

So it looks as if houses are often being foreclosed to the benefit of those who merely hold the junior tranches and thus have no right to benefit by the foreclosure, or perhaps do not hold anything at all – it is difficult to tell, perhaps impossible to tell.

It is also unclear how much money the people being foreclosed upon actually owe – again, it is difficult to tell, perhaps impossible to tell.  When the scammers sold mortgages on to the next guy in line, they tended to pad up the mortgage, tended to exaggerate the amount of money owing.

But the big scandal is a fraud upon the taxpayer: Goldman and Sach, and other well connected and too big to fail securitizing entities guaranteed that 9999 out of 10000 mortgage notes would be valid. It looks like few or none of them are valid. Thus the people that securitized these the mortgages are liable for the full value. Unfortunately, since the senior tranches were all purchased by the taxpayer, this claim against Goldman and Sach is unlikely to be exercised.  It may well be exercised by the holders of junior tranches, which will produce further chaos.

Falkenblog locates the guilty

Sunday, October 3rd, 2010

Falkenblog has an interesting quote from Harvard, wherein in 2003, back before the financial crisis, Angello Mozilla gives politically correct bullshit justifying every bad thing the banks did to cause the financial crisis on the basis of race and affirmative action.

That means there is currently a homeownership gap of over 25 points when comparing white households with African Americans and Hispanics. My friends, that gap is obviously far too wide.

One of the more obvious resolutions to the Money Gap is the elimination of down payment requirements for low-income and minority borrowers

….

the credit score bar dividing creditworthy from high-risk borrowers, must be substantially lowered by the GSEs, the secondary market in general, and with bank regulators.

These are all quotes from a publication of “The Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University”, which endorsed all the actions the regulators took to destroy our financial system, and urged more of the same.

Please keep in mind that everything this wrecking crew did is still in place, still in force.  It became illegal to be an honest banker, that being raaaacist, and it still is illegal. Every single banker is a crook, is because no honest banker can make crooked loans, and the regulators require all bankers to make crooked loans. Undoing the damage would require an unthinkably radical transformation of our political system, something more akin to regime change and the collapse of democracy, than any mere election.  As I have said so many times before, to fix the financial system will require and result in a society where it is possible to laugh at the Nobel committee for giving Marie Curie two Nobel prizes that for work that was unexceptional when men did it, and laugh at Pierre Curie for pushing his wife into the lab, when he should have kept her in the bedroom and kitchen.

Financial collapse still under way

Monday, September 27th, 2010

The Market Ticker ® complains that the banks and the regulators are flagrantly and massively violating laws that are necessary for borrowing and lending to work – violating every step that is necessary for the trust to work along the chain, with the result that our entire financial system is massively disfunctional, and continues to leak huge amounts of money.  He gives lots of interesting details of a multitude of flagrantly criminal acts.

But he fails to ask how the widespread criminality began.

It began because the law both commanded and forbade affirmative action lending, and to comply, what was illegal had to be done, therefore, had to be made de-facto legal.

Repeating my much repeated rant yet again:

When they gave a Nobel prize to Marie Curie for being female, that did not hurt anyone except more deserving potential Nobel prize winners.   But handing out phony Nobels on the basis of sex, race, and nationality necessitated handing out phony degrees on the basis of race and sex, and handing out phony degrees on the basis of race and sex necessarily led to a crisis where these phony degrees were being ignored by employers, so employers necessarily had to be forced to give out well paid phony jobs on the basis of race and sex.   But being given well paid phony jobs on the basis of race and sex failed to result in recipients living a middle class lifestyle, so lenders had to be forced to give out a middle class lifestyle on the basis of race and sex.  Which required every single banker to become dishonest or get a new job.  Which has led to our present financial crisis.  It all began with Marie Curie.

So if you roll back the most unpopular, extreme, and disastrous form of affirmative action, you then immediately face a problem with less extreme and more popular forms.  And if you roll them back … All solutions are either radical or unworkable.  Roll back affirmative action loans, and pretty soon you are going to have to ridicule Marie Curie, and say her husband should have kept her in the bedroom and the kitchen, and not put her in the lab.  And since no one wants to start walking down a path that ends in them saying it was inappropriate for Pierre Curie to try to make Marie Curie into a scientist, no one wants to stop bankers doing criminal things.

And so the financial system continues to leak money

The explosive expansion of the state

Friday, September 10th, 2010

Government employment is increasing relative to private employment, but only moderately, not explosively, yet the deficit is exploding.  Part of this comes from what Doc Zero calls the remora economy. Private businesses attach themselves to the state, and the state attaches nominally private businesses to itself and commands them to serve its political objectives.

The private businesses make corrupt profits from their state connection, and the state creates costs that are nominally off budget, as for example, the health crisis and the recent financial crisis which was primarily a crisis of affirmative action loans. Government regulatory intervention in the economy is exploding, creating a multitude of invisible taxes, off budget expenditures, and opportunities for corrupt profits by semi private businesses, such Al Gore becoming a billionaire from carbon credits.

The number of the beast

Wednesday, September 8th, 2010

And he causeth all, both small and great, rich and poor, free and bond, to receive a mark in their right hand, or in their foreheads:

And that no man might buy or sell, save he that had the mark, or the name of the beast, or the number of his name.

Greece Bans Cash Transactions Over 1,500 Euros

The Italian government will ban the use of cash in transactions over 5,000 euros, lowering the ceiling from 12,500 euros

In the UK a tax evasion crackdown on middle class professionals.

The end is in sight

Wednesday, September 1st, 2010

For the last hundred years or so, people have been predicting that the welfare and affirmative action state would collapse eventually.

Well, it seems that “eventually” is getting close.  Arnold Kling has a list of links showing that all the welfare state social democracies are going to hell in a handbasket, with everyone else in even worse trouble than the US.

Arnold Kling predicts a US debt crisis between 2015 and 2035.  Public sector pensions are unpayable.

The welfare state has made a pile of promises it cannot fulfill, and like a debtor in trouble, has been rapidly escalating the promises.

When the president and the most prestigious academies are out of contact with reality, then the path to advancement is to deny reality.  As the housing debacle illustrates, the elite is incurably insane.  The process is self reinforcing – any contact with reality, or tendency to engage in reality testing, disqualifies you for membership of the  elite.  Only lowly contemptible insignificant people engage in reality testing, and as everyone knows, they are boobs and disgusting racists.

In beauty contests, the contestants are asked to demonstrate allegiance to progressivism, by asking them questions on which America is divided. They must side with the Cathedral, or else they lose.  Similarly in a job interview for any important position.  If an executive doubts the Cathedral, the company is likely to be sued for a “hostile work environment”, so a precondition for employment in any substantial corporation in any important position is sincere zeal for the holy faith of the Cathedral.

The tea party is not actually all that rightwing.  They are right wing in that they support the extreme left status quo ante and oppose the even more extreme left status quo.  They want to turn the clock back to Clinton, not 1950, but to save the day, would have to turn the clock back to 1900.

People planned on social security and medicare being there for them. They see the government blowing all the money on pork barrel spending and dud mortgages for non asian minorities, and they suspect that the welfare state on which they intended to rely is going broke fast.  They want to preserve the quite left wing status quo of the Clinton years.

Hence the progressive parody of the tea party: “get the government out of my medicare”.

Only the most extreme elements of the Tea Party movement leadership (Sharon Angle) actually propose to put social security on a sound footing, propose to make it a forced saving program, where you individually and personally own your social security trust fund, rather than a welfare program.

The welfare problem is a necessary result of the universal franchise.  Singapore, and only Singapore, has a non catastrophic solution to the welfare problem.  They were able to get away with a non catastrophic solution only because of the Singaporean/Confucian attitude that the rulers have the right to rule, provided things are going OK, which rewards long term orientation by politicians.

The stupidity of the voters, and the short term orientation of politicians means that a universal franchise guarantees social, economic, and political collapse once government becomes large enough to drag everything down with it.

The least radical solution that could actually work, could make the welfare state viable,  is to implement Singaporean style welfare, social security and healthcare, and to restrict the franchise enough that such a solution wins majority support from those few entitled to vote – which solution is a lot more radical than anyone in the tea party will advocate.

We can divide the major political programs into three:

  1. The ignorant and unthinking, who are the great majority, since there is no point in knowing this stuff or thinking about it.
  2. Those who doubt the expansion of the state can go on forever, and fear the end is nigh:  these are the tea partiers, who want to stop the boat right by the edge of the waterfall.
  3. Those who believe the state can expand forever, because state expenditures are so much more productive than mere private expenditures: these are the elite, to whom thinking like the state thinks is a badge of status, and who therefore confidently believe that going over the waterfall will be fine because the boat will fly like a bird without any need for external support.

The practical solution, of course, is to back the boat away from the waterfall – a long way back from the waterfall, but it is too fiscally late to do that without blowing off most of the state’s financial obligations, and politically impossible to do that without radically restricting the franchise. A program of recognizing bankruptcy, and throwing most of the population off the voting rolls is unlikely to be very popular.