Archive for the ‘economics’ Category

Cause of International Inequality

Tuesday, March 11th, 2008

Arnold Kling is much puzzled by the inequality of nations. I don’t know why. The answer is pretty obvious.

Firstly, you require capitalism, which requires not mere formal laws recognizing private property, but a culture of respect for entrepreneurship, for property rights in productive capital and freedom to do business. With that respect, the laws are unnecessary, as in today’s China. Without that respect, the laws are useless, as in Argentina and Russia.

Secondly, given capitalism, you require people able to operate modern capitalism, able function in a business encompassing numerous people – you require people whose verbal IQ is higher than 105. By and large, the capitalist portion of the economy, the portion that produces wealth, will be proportional to number of people with an IQ higher than 105.

If we look at countries that are reasonable capitalist, and these days a large part of the countries of the world are reasonably capitalist, the GDP per head is fairly closely proportional to fraction of the population with a verbal IQ higher than 105, the smart fraction.

commodity money

Sunday, March 9th, 2008

The subprime crisis represents massive unpunished malfeasance by financial intermediaries managing US dollars. This discourages people from using US dollars as money.

In 2008 January, the fed drove real dollar interest rates negative – only slightly negative, but negative interest rates suggest an intent to inflate away the dollar denominated liabilities of financial intermediaries until the real assets cover the dollar denominated liabilities. In the ensuing two months, all commodities that are readily storable and have large liquid markets, all commodities that can usefully function as a store of value, went up around twenty percent: aluminum, barley, cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, gold, lead, oats, oil, silver, tin, wheat, zinc.

This suggests that when fiat money collapses, a process likely to take place in fits and starts over a very long time rather than all at once, we will move towards a balanced basket of commodities, rather than return to the gold standard.