Archive for the ‘global warming’ Category

Highly scientific climate change of doom

Tuesday, August 13th, 2019

The world is going to end soon unless drastic climate action is taken.

Well then, how soon?

In the year 2000 – oops that report is thirty years old.

In the year 2010 – oops that report is twenty years old

In the year 2020 – oops that report is ten years old.

It is definitely going to end the year 2030.

That is definitely right. All scientists agree. It is the scientific consensus, and if any scientists fail to agree, they will lose their jobs.
If you doubt it, you are anti intellectual and anti science.

How much did temperature actually rise in the past forty years?


Which looks indistinguishable from random variation well within the normal range.

Assuming that the change is real, rather than random variations similar to those that have been going on for centuries, it is not humanly perceptible.

How has temperature changed in the past?

In order to figure that out, need to use proxies, and since using one proxy for the present, and a different proxy for the past gives unlimited freedom to cherry pick results, have to use the same proxy for the present as the past.

In a multiproxy reconstruction, you are necessarily adding apples to oranges, and even if you are being honest, there is a lot of room to get whatever result you want. And the “trick to hide the decline” was very far from being honest.

Individual proxies never show a hockey stick, and seldom show the present warmer than the medieval climate optimum. But somehow, when you put a lot of non hockey stick proxies into the sausage maker, out comes a hockey stick. Or your paper will not pass peer review, and you lose your tenure.

The best proxies are those have high temporal resolution (as for example Law Dome) and that give continuous coverage from the distant past to near the present. Such proxies are usually ice cores. Ice cores have been taken from around the world, and they show nothing unusual about recent temperatures. It has been cooler, and it has been warmer. Temperatures have risen faster in the past, and temperatures have fallen fast in the past.

The best ice core is the Law Dome ice core, because of rapid ice formation and great depth of ice.

All the others show roughly similar results. Some show more warming, some show more cooling but none of them show unusual warming, and none of them show a hockey stick. They show the climate has always been changing, and oftimes, changing a lot more than it is changing now, and most of them show a medieval climate optimum far warmer than the present day.

Global warming scam starts to unravel

Sunday, September 30th, 2018

The basic religious impulse behind global warming is that technology and industrial civilization is a creation of whites, males, and capitalists, and primarily a creation of white male capitalists, therefore must be evil.

The political impulse behind global warming, its strategic value for the blue empire was that the replacement people were largely concentrated in blue coastal federal electorates, thus wasting their votes, so the blue empire wanted to move people who work and don’t commit crimes out of federal electorates in flyover country, where their votes were likely to tip the balance, into coastal areas where they would be massively outvoted. Similarly, the policy of bombing marginal federal electorates in flyover country with black male Muslim military age rapeugees living on crime and welfare. So they wanted to destroy productive activities, such as logging and coal mining, in flyover country. To avoid wasted Democratic votes, they want to move people who work and do not commit crimes out of flyover country, and people who do not work and who do commit crimes into flyover country. Similarly, they want people who vote Democratic armed (hence operation Fast and Furious) so that they can kill people who vote Republican (hence gun control).

The blue empire proceeded to apply its soft power to drag the rest of the world along for the ride. Thus the Paris climate treaty had almost all the pain to be inflicted on flyover country Americans, with just barely enough pain for the rest of the world to make it an “international” treaty (which is to say a treaty where the “international community”, aka the US State Department, agrees with itself), and thus avoid the inconvenience of Americans who lose their jobs because of it being able to vote against it.

To the religious impetus of hostility to industrial civilization, which is to say white male capitalist civilization, was added the impetus of hostility to those horrid rednecks in flyover country.

The only real action item on the Paris accord was smashing Americans in flyover country, making them suffer, and providing political cover for smashing Americans in flyover country. If Americans in flyover county are not being smashed, not one gives a tinker’s dam about the rest of it. It is already sliding out of sight and out of mind.

Trump has not been able to do much about the flood of illegal immigration, but the stops against coal mining and fracking rested on executive orders, and he simply issued new executive orders, whereupon those jobs that “were gone and not coming back” promptly came back.

Coal mines and such are generally in flyover country, Democratic voters on the coast, so, moving legacy American out of flyover country makes more efficient use of imported voters.

But Trump shuts down this tactic, and the entire rest of the world loses interest in Global Warming.

The rest of the world was being put through the motions to provide political cover for the blows against near. Paris was just political cover for shutting down jobs in flyover country, in order to move republican voters into areas full of wasted federal Democratic party votes.

With Trump shutting down that tactic, suddenly the soft power of “the international community” loses interest in Global warming.

One might suppose that this is the result of everyone reacting to the same data at the same time, but not so. When the climategate files came out, it was obvious that global warming was a religion, not science, and that global warming scientists had precisely zero interest in whether global warming was true of this world, that it was a religious truth, not genuinely expected to be empirically verifiable, not really expected to be supported by, or supportable by, the facts of this world.

The empirical evidence for global warming remains about the same as it has ever been. If any warming is happening, the effects are imperceptibly slight, and likely to remain imperceptible for a long time.

But suddenly, around the world, people are forgetting about efforts to fight the terrible scourge of global warming.

For some time warmists have been making a big deal out of disappearing ice at the north pole (Glibly ignoring the fact that the South Pole is far larger than it was when the first expeditions visited the place.)

Every year since 2007 highly honored high status official scientist Peter Wadhams tells us:

Arctic will be ice free in summer next year

After a decade of false predictions, more honored than ever. Being wrong works great for official science, while being right is apt to be fatal for one’s career.

Over the past couple of hundred years the North West passage has sometimes been closed all year, sometimes open briefly during summer. Always too much ice to sail the arctic reliably even in summer, always too little ice to reliably and safely reach the North Pole by sled even in winter. There is always ice, even in the North West Passage in summer, there is always open water, even at the North Pole in winter, and that is the way it is always been. Hard to see any climate change, because the day to day weather changes, and the year to year weather changes, are vastly bigger than the supposed climate change.

This year, even icebreakers could not make the Northwest passage in high summer.

Yes, the Arctic has less ice than it used to. And the Antarctic more, but I am not seeing a trend, just pink noise, temporally correlated random variation, a fractal roughly half way between red noise (a random walk) and white noise. If there is a trend, hard to discern against a background of large random changes. Finding patterns in climate change is not a whole lot easier than finding patterns in stock market price change. Retrodiction is apt to be a whole lot easier than prediction.

I will now predict the Arctic climate and weather:

The North West Passage has been open before and closed before: It will be open again, and closed again.

There have been large areas of open sea at the North Pole before, and it has been entirely covered by thick ice before: It will be covered by ice again, and open sea again.

There has always been enough ice that it is a big problem for ships even in high summer: There will continue to be enough ice that it is a big problem for ships even in high summer.

There has always been enough open sea at the North Pole that it is a big problem for sleds even in mid winter: There will continue to be enough open sea that it is a big problem for sleds even in mid winter.

It is rarely possible to reach the North Pole by ship, because ice is usually in the way. It is usually difficult and often dangerous to reach the North Pole by sled, because water is usually in way. Sledding and sailing has become easier, because aided by satellite observations, and because one can be rescued by helicopter. Helicopter rescues will continue to happen from time to time, both because of too little open water for ships, and too much open water for sleds.

No perceptible global warming.

Friday, August 31st, 2018

It is plausible that the world has warmed very slightly – but in any one location, if we count the number of unusually cold events, anomalous snowfalls, and the like, and compare with the number of unusually warm events, we are just as likely to get more cold events and less warm events in recent times than the converse.

To detect global warming, you have to average over the entire world, and it is unclear and debateable how to make an apples to apples average over the entire world.

It is plausible that there has been a bit of warming over the past few decades for reasonable ways of doing the averaging. But polar bears are not only unlikely to go extinct, they are unlikely to notice.  Regions where sea levels have been falling are approximately equal to regions where sea levels have been rising.  To measure sea level rise, you run into the same problems as detecting global warming.  You have to average over the whole world, because the signal in any one area is swamped by various random things, and it is unclear how to do a valid average over the entire world.

And similarly, coral bleaching events. There have always been coral bleaching events. Coral grows till it gets too close to the surface, there is an unusually low tide, and the coral dies back, bleaching. I have seen a few coral bleaching events, and it always shallow water coral hit by an abnormally low tide. Similarly, glaciers are always calving, have always been calving, even though each time a big iceberg breaks off a glacier, it is announced as proof of global warming.

You may have heard that the North Pole is melting – though no one told you that the South Pole has grown, and is now vastly larger than it was a hundred years ago.

This arctic summer, the Northwest passage failed to open. A few days ago, at the time of year when arctic ice is least, an icebreaker cruise ship attempted to force passage, repeatedly ramming very thick ice. The ship broke, the ice did not break.

Well, Warmists will say, that is weather, not climate, and they are of course, correct. But the bottom line is that a hundred years ago, the Northwest Passage through the arctic sometimes opened in high summer and sometimes did not, and today the Northwest Passage sometimes opens in high summer, and sometimes does not.

Changes in the weather remain enormously larger than changes in the climate, making it very difficult to detect any change in the climate.

The climate is always changing. Climate Change is always true. But over the last hundred year or so, it has not changed enough for unaided human senses, or even human senses aided by ordinary and reasonably affordable instruments, to detect. Sometimes the climate does change dramatically, sometimes catastrophically, in a hundred years or so. But not this last hundred years or so.

So, why the high drama about global warming? Why the catastrophism? Why the demand for dramatic changes that somehow always result in our power system being looted and damaged?

The reason for the high drama is that science, technology, and industrialization was created by white male capitalists, an enormous achievement for which mankind should be eternally grateful. And people who hate whites, hate males, and hate capitalism want to destroy science, technology, and industrialization. Anyone who talks about Global Warming or Climate Change in ways that imply it is an important crusade hates you and intends you harm. Maybe he wants to lower your status. Maybe he wants to exterminate your race. But either way, he is your enemy. Whosoever talks catastrophic global warming hates you and is motivated by desire to harm you.

Whites, males, capitalists, and white male capitalists created all the good stuff, so they tend to have most of the good stuff, so people who want to take our stuff hate us. Hate whites, hate males, hate capitalists, and particularly hate white male capitalists.

The science is settled

Friday, February 2nd, 2018

A little while ago I saw cited yet another Harvard study supposedly proving that women CEOs are just as good as men, except better, not withstanding the fact that anyone can see that women in charge are profoundly disruptive and destructive, that women can no more run a large group than they can chop wood with an axe, pilot a plane, do science, or clear a path through the jungle with a machete, that putting a woman in charge is pissing away shareholder’s assets, as divorced women piss away their husband’s and their children’s assets, so I thought I would remind you of this golden oldie:
hide the decline

Click on the graph to see it in its full glory.

Is not science wonderful?  I have been finding a pile of similar science data not just in global warmering, and in studies of demonic males viciously oppressing saintly women, but also dietary science, medical science, biology, and even string theory and materials science.  These days, the way to get ahead in any area of science is to discover that your field has some political relevance that is unlikely to occur to any sane person, and then produce data that supposedly comforts the oppressed and saves the earth from cruel exploitation by white males.  For an added bonus, you can destroy the careers of your colleagues as oppressors of the weak and vulnerable, because back in the bad old days they upheld the old evil theory (now refuted by your new data) for no reason other than hatred of some saintly victims and desire to cause harm to those saintly and long suffering victims.

Holiness and corporate performance.

Friday, September 1st, 2017

Notoriously, corporations that are Social Justice converged behave in ways that are not only evil, but self destructive, leading to loss of shareholder value.

It is difficult to objectively assess social justice convergence, but we can expect it to have a pretty good correlation with the company’s business model – a green energy company is going to be full of social justice warriors, and receive lots of investment from fund managers who are trying to earn brownie points from the government, rather than brownie points from investors, whereas a gun company is probably trying to make good money by making good guns.

“Watts Up With That” recently did a ten year comparison of such companies, and found that over ten years, holiness investing lost nearly all your money, while sinfulness investing doubled your money.

Twelve years ago, holiness investing consisted largely in investing in providing mortgages for single women, Hispanics, and blacks. And all that money disappeared also.

However, while holiness investing is terrible for investors, it works extremely well for management, as for example Jon Corzine, the world’s most regulated and regulating financier, who without informing his customers proceeded to use their funds to rescue Greece.

Jon Corzine’s customers were eventually paid back by burning JP Morgan, illustrating that when you do business with progs, someone gets burned. The short of it was that various financial entities who were improperly paid with money belonging to Jon Corzine’s customers had to give it back, so that they are out of the money, they got burned, yet somehow Jon Corzine is still smelling of roses.

Corporations that go left tend to disappear or get hollowed out, unless they have some kind of state protected monopoly.

Summary of the Global Warming evidence

Sunday, August 13th, 2017

Surface measurements have various major sources of error, which have to be guestimated away in an ad hoc manner. The only data that is arguably good enough to estimate the rather small changes in climate is Australia, Britain, and the US – which on the whole have not been warming as measured by surface instruments. And even for them, the warming estimated from surface instruments is rather similar to various sources of error, that have to be “corrected”. The main contribution to global warming as measured by surface instruments comes from sources where you can get any result you want by rather arbitrarily deciding some data is good enough to include, and some data is not, by cherry picking particular events – for example warm nights indicate America is warming, but hottest days indicates America is cooling. You can always find one indicator to be alarmist about, but on the whole, where our data is good, surface instruments indicate little or no global warming. Because our surface instrument database is noisy, inaccurate, and incomplete, there is plenty of room to spin it any way one pleases.

The most precise measurement of global warming comes from satellites, which indicate a warming of one degree centigrade per century.

Recent changes in the icecaps indicate slight warming over the last thirty years ago, though the antarctic icecap has increased by almost the same amount as the arctic icecap has decreased, but the icecaps still have substantially more ice than a hundred years ago. The landing sites of early antarctic explorers are now behind a vast barrier of thick, and very old, ice impenetrable to icebreakers. A century ago there was too much open water at the North Pole, even in midwinter, to access it by dog sled, yet today, you can access it by dog sled in winter. Early attempts to reach the North Pole by dog sled had huge problems with open, ice free areas of water. Recent efforts to recreate those trips using identical equipment just took a straight line over solid ice.

The worlds biggest glaciers, the ones in the Himalayas are growing. Greenland glaciers are arguably shrinking, but by a miniscule amount. Glaciers do not tell you today’s weather as compared to yesterday, but today’s weather as compared with a very long time ago. Which fits with the experiences of arctic and antarctic explorers a century or so ago. Different glaciers are giving different indications, which is consistent with the conjecture that some years, some decades, and some centuries are warmer, and others are cooler.

So, lukewarming is true, for the moment, natural variation is true, and catastrophic warming is not true.

Warmism and the old Gods of Mexico

Sunday, February 26th, 2017

Warmism is an updated and rebranded version of the old Mexican religion, demon worship. The priests announce that unless human sacrifices are made, the sun will cease to rise.

And, guess what, this gives the priests a whole lot of influence over which people get sacrificed to sun god, and which people do not. Thus we find the priests of global warming involved in all sorts of highly lucrative schemes whereby carbon indulgences are sold, and subsidies handed out, with the result that certain priests of global warming get a whole lot of money, for example the carbon indulgences sold by Carbonscape.

The demons were worshiped through cannibalism, sodomy, and transvestism.  (That is how you can tell that they were demons, rather than angels or saints.)  While we no longer have literal cannibalism, the food to fuel program has similar results, and we still have sodomy and transvestism as priestly acts demonstrating priestly holiness, as for example in Earth Worship conducted by Less Wrong.

Certain Indian nations were somewhat ticked off that the Aztecs were always sacrificing them, and they were not sacrificing Aztecs, and therefore took advantage of Cortez’s invasion to revolt against the Aztecs. Whereupon it became apparent that their priests were secretly in cahoots with the Aztec priests to facilitate Aztec domination of their people and Aztec cannibalism of their people – that the Gods would make announcements through the temples of the revolting tribes that were planned and coordinated in the Aztec capital. In other words, the old Gods of Mexico made their proclamations via peer review.

Conservatives find their balls

Tuesday, February 21st, 2017

As a general rule, the left deploys any means necessary, routinely engaging in treason, criminal acts, and barefaced lies, as for example the latest business about Islamic rape war on Swedes. And the cuckservatives roll over and let them get away with it. The left does this stuff because they can, and routinely do, get away with it.

However, the committee on Science, Space and Technology is now insisting on investigating the latest act of Global Warming deception by the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, demanding papers that the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration is highly unlikely to release, because these papers would likely be proof of crimes by civil servants. You cannot prosecute a scientist for being one eyed about what he is determined to believe is true, but you most definitely can prosecute a civil servant for willfully deceiving the government.

Hat tip Watt’s up

Trump has a pile of prosecutions he can apply for breaches of national security, and now we are seeing potential prosecutions for fraudulent warmism. If he applies these (and you know Trump – would he not) the permanent government is going to be brought to heel.

Defunding the left

Sunday, February 19th, 2017

Reagan talked about defunding the left, but never actually did anything.

As a result of Trump’s threats against Berkeley, they are starting to think that hiring a bunch of thugs to beat people up and cause over a hundred thousand dollars worth of damage may have been a bit excessive.

Meanwhile Trump and congress are working on stripping two billion from NASA global warming propaganda.

NASA put up a bunch of satellites to measure global warming. To their considerable disappointment, these show no significant warming in the past twenty years. To a good approximation, no significant warming since the satellite data became sufficiently accurate as to deny people excuses for “correcting” it. So they returned to the old faithful, “surface temperature measurements” – otherwise known as weather reports. The trouble with weather reports is that from time to time the location of the thermometer, or the time of day when it is read, changes. Also the location is usually directly adjacent to human habitation, which over time tends to have more humans, more cars, and more parking spaces, all of which tends to warm things up. This requires numerous very large “corrections”, which corrections are pulled out of the rectums of NASA’s climate “scientists” – who sound more like cultists than scientists. One of the commenters asks of one such correction:

Did anyone ever figure out how the trends in the interior of Greenland could exceed the trends actually observed at stations*? Since there are no stations in the interior, the trends there must be computed by interpolating from nearby (coastal) stations

According to NASA’s climate data, GISS, calculated from surface stations, the world is getting hotter primarily in places where there are no surface stations.

Of course cutting a few billion from climate change activism is small change compared to the core of the problem, the universities, and I cannot see Trump taking on the universities unless he makes himself King.

But two billion less for climate change activism is the first cut for the left since the cuts that happened in restoration of Charles the second. It is a start.

Further, it is going to scare the vermin into voiding their bowels, since it was the most blatantly propagandistic warming “science” that got the first cut.

A warming world?

Monday, December 12th, 2016

Early explorations of the Antarctic report an ice free shore in areas now long covered by a growing icecap. Twenty first century science just simply lies in your face about this, with blatant barefaced fraud, but sometimes the discrepancy becomes glaringly and embarassingly obvious.

What about the North Pole? Early twentieth century attempts to reach the North Pole were frustrated by the fact that ice coverage was fragile, incomplete, and had gaps full of open water even in the middle of winter, so that travel by dog sled was dangerous and impractical. There was too much ice for it to be safe to sail to the pole in summer, but not enough for it to be safe to dog sled to the pole in winter. Today, the North Pole in the middle of winter is solidly ice bound, and it is quite easy to reach the North Pole by dog sled. So today’s north pole has a lot more ice than it did at the start of the twentieth century. The Northwest passage was difficult and unsafe for wooden ships then, and difficult and unsafe for wooden ships now.

But do we have any proxies for temperature that cover the present day, and also centuries past?

Yes we do, we have Law Dome, a pile of ice and snow in the Antarctic. Drill in Law Dome, and the isotope ratio agrees very well with recently measured present day temperatures of the weather station near Law Dome, unlike most proxies favored by global warmers.

And the Law Dome shows that in 500AD-1000AD, the temperature at Law Dome was a whole lot warmer than the present, or any recent temperatures. On the whole, temperatures have gone up and gone down, plenty of climate change, but mostly in the direction of colder, as we would expect from the growth in the icecaps.

What about surface instrument readings which supposedly show the world has warmed 0.6 degrees in recent decades?

I myself attempted to reconstruct recent global temperatures from surface instrument readings, and the data is unsuited to the task. It contains various sources of systematic error that have to be corrected by ad hoc guessing, and one can make one reasonable set of guesses and use one reasonable procedure, and get one past temperature, or a different reasonable set of guesses and a different reasonable procedure and easily get a result 1.2 degrees different without intentionally torturing the data.

We now have satellites that do provide accurate world wide readings of temperature, and have had them since 1998 (actually a good deal earlier than 1998, but the early satellites had problems that arguably make their readings non comeasurable. Debates about how earlier satellite measurements should be interpreted are difficult to resolve.)

And surprise surprise, since we have had accurate satellite readings of global temperatures, they have been fairly stable, with no obvious trend in any particular direction. There has been plenty of quite dramatic climate change in the past, and there will likely be plenty of quite dramatic climate change in the future, but it is not apparent that we have been having much climate change from nineteen ninety eight to the present.

The only data suitable for detecting small world wide variations of temperature is the satellite data, and the less one is free to torture the satellite data, the less it it indicates that anthropogenic warming is detectable.