Archive for the ‘global warming’ Category

Prediction, Retrodiction, Warmism and the Demon Haunted Dark

Sunday, March 23rd, 2014

We are far more impressed by a scientific theory that predicts, than a supposedly scientific theory that retrodicts, even though from the Bayesian point of view they are the same.

Successful prediction tells us that this is an actual theory, rather than a slippery and ambiguous pile of vague fudge factors subject to post hoc reinterpretation.

As you probably know, Global Warming models are 100% successful at precisely “predicting” (retrodicting) the alleged past, even though past climate is not in fact known very accurately.  They are totally unsuccessful at predicting.

By and large, Warmism is not incorrect science, but anti science. Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming is an attempt by skeptics to make sense out of the Warmist position, to construct a plausible scientific theory that makes the predictions that Warmists predict, but Warmists are not much interested in making sense.

The theory attributed to the Warmists by the skeptics is that water vapor provides positive feedback, clouds also provide postive feedback, so any small nudge tends to have large effects on the climate.

Do Warmists believe the theory that skeptics attribute to them?

Perhaps.  To find out, you would have to sue the model builders under the freedom of information act, and the model builders would stone wall, the courts would favor them, and the model builders would complain they are being persecuted by big oil.

The term “multiplier” in the sense that skeptics use it never appears in Warmist works, only in critiques of Warmism. The term “climate sensitivity” does appear in Warmist works, but it does not seem to be used in the same meaning as in skeptic works. It is not a ratio that can be larger or smaller than unity, not a number, but more like sin and purity, not the kind of thing where one might say the “the climate sensitivity is 2.7” To a Warmist, to assert that the climate sensitivity is 2.7 would be as ridiculous as if a Roman Catholic priest were to say that that the sinfulness of adultery is 2.7 A Warmist paper will say that climate sensitivity is greater than we thought, but will not give a number for what we supposedly used to think it was, nor a number for what we now supposedly think it is – which does not stop them from deducing from this unspecified change in this unspecified number that the temperature in 2100 will be precisely six degrees hotter.

I have not read much of the Warmist literature.  Perhaps there is some that understands the theory of Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming attributed to the Warmists by the skeptics, but what I have read seems to me more like inspiration by the spirit of Gaia decorated almost at random by scientific sounding words.  It could be that the author understands and believes a scientific theory that makes the required doomful predictions, but there is no very clear indication that he does.

Steve McIntyre argued that it is likely that clouds create negative feedback. Do Warmists attempt to argue with him? Do Warmists say “no, clouds create positive feedback”? Do Warmists even know the difference between positive and negative feedback?  Nasa discussing clouds sound like they use the terms correctly, but then fail to apply them when discussing the stability of temperatures between the wet season and dry season in the tropics, even though this is an obvious case of negative feedback.

Rather, Warmism is a revival of the old demon worshiping cults. The priests announce the gods are angry, any unusual weather event being evidence of the wrath of the demon gods, and that to appease these hostile and wrathful beings sacrifices shall be made, which sacrifices the priests get to administer.

Recap on Warmism

Friday, March 14th, 2014

I have been ignoring the issue of Global Warming for a while, because it is pretty much settled.  Anyone who still believes in Warmism is stupid, crazy, or lying.  Usually stupid.

But, a short summary: (more…)

Global Warming Scientists trapped in Antarctic Denial

Wednesday, January 1st, 2014

This expedition to Antarctica is led by global warming scientist Chris Turney, whose company, Carbonscape, sells carbon indulgences. If you sin by emitting carbon, Chris Turner will, for a suitable payment, offset your sin with his carbon offset credits.

In the course of this expedition, they have repeatedly smacked up hard against ice that their ideology said could not possibly be there, and then proceeded to act as if the ice was not there.  And then their ship got stuck. (more…)

Northwest passage

Monday, September 9th, 2013

I have not been doing much global warming blogging lately, since that seems to be an area, where, like socialism, everyone knows the ruling elite is lying, and their continued lying only embarrasses them.    When the climategate files came out, we had documentary proof that all the conspiracy theories about official science were true.  Indeed the concept of the Cathedral, which is a loose coalition of many small conspiracies that in effect act like a vast conspiracy, owes much to what was revealed in the climategate files.

But, in response to the news that the Northwest passage never opened this year:

For as long as people have been searching for the Northwest passage, they have found that it sometimes opens in summer, sometimes remains closed, and sometimes opens briefly and closes unexpectedly, trapping whoever was trying to use it.  That the Northwest passage has recently been open in summer, and has recently been closed in summer, is true for as far back as we have records.

How sweet it is

Wednesday, April 3rd, 2013

Marcott et al recant the blade of their Hockey stick

This is a huge change, in that previously, when warmists lied, and got caught doing so, every scientific institution, every science journal, every prestigious academy, and every organized group of scientists would piously swear holy fealty to the lie.  Now, instead, they quietly twist the liar’s arms behind closed doors.  (more…)

Soft Power

Sunday, March 17th, 2013

Modern leftism is a plot by some white males to use women and non whites to destroy other white males. Obama is president, but he does not know what some white male has written on his teleprompter until he reads it.

Spandrell complains about a Chinese billionairess piously saying the the politically correct things about democracy. (more…)

Warmist day of reckoning

Monday, March 5th, 2012

No global warming for the past fourteen years.

What is wrong with models that predict anthropogenic global warming

The undead hockey stick

(more…)

What the DenialGate fake reveals about warmists

Friday, February 24th, 2012

Peter Gleik phished some genuine files from the Heartland Institute.  The files revealed what everyone knows,  what no one has ever denied, and what the Heartland Institute has frequently announced:  That the Heartland Institute is funding science that is skeptical of global warming, though its funding is ludicrously tiny, while Peter Gleik received half a million dollars to attack skeptics and help the warming cause.

He then created what he probably considered to be a truthful  summary of these files and fraudulently attributed his summary to the Heartland Institute.  Doubtless he thought of the summary as fake but accurate. The summary, however, is written from within the left worldview, not from the Heartland Institute worldview. It contained numerous tells, lines that gave away its true authorship, among them its description of Gleik as a climate scientist, rather than a political activist, and gave away much about the minds of leftists. (more…)

Climategate 1 and 2

Saturday, December 3rd, 2011

Climategate 1 is self summarized by the famous line:

Mike’s Nature trick  … to hide the decline.

Climategate 2 is self summarized by the theme:  ‘

help the cause

(more…)

Next climategate installment.

Wednesday, November 23rd, 2011

Climategate 2011

From Watts up (more…)