Archive for the ‘politics’ Category

Warmism for politicians

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

If Sarah Palin is so amazingly dumb, how come she gets everything right on a complex issue, and explains it in language that the average voter can understand?

Sarah Palin explains climate change, covering every issue, except for the documents directory of the climategate files, in clear, easy to understand language.

She makes one minor error,  describing “hide the decline” as hiding the decline of temperature, when in fact they were hiding the decline of a proxy for temperature, but this oversimplification does not affect the point, the point being that they were tricking you by hiding an inconvenient fact that would suggest that there is nothing unusual about recent changes in climate.  Since she compressed all the Climategate emails into a single wonderfully stinging paragraph, a harmless oversimplification was difficult to avoid.

The e-mails reveal that leading climate “experts” deliberately destroyed records, manipulated data to “hide the decline” in global temperatures, and tried to silence their critics by preventing them from publishing in peer-reviewed journals. What’s more, the documents show that there was no real consensus even within the CRU crowd.

After concisely summing up the more easily understood part of Climategate  (the emails), she then goes on to argue that costs and benefits of climate change proposals must be realistically evaluated:

But while we recognize the occurrence of these natural, cyclical environmental trends, we can’t say with assurance that man’s activities cause weather changes. We can say, however, that any potential benefits of proposed emissions reduction policies are far outweighed by their economic costs. And those costs are real.

“Natural cyclical” and “economic costs” summarizes the entire Hockey Stick versus Medieval Climatic Optimum argument in a nutshell.  She has repackaged the complex scientific debate of the blogs into something for voters and politicians.

She then, in a classic politician’s move, points to Australia as foreshadowing the climate change bandwagon hitting the rocks of Climategate.  Since every politician wants to get on the winning side, this is a compelling argument for her fellow politicians.

I predict that she will once again demonstrate the power to turn the debate around and shape political outcomes, as she did with health care.  While Obama looks powerless, she looks powerful.  Obama bows before kings, though in protocol kings and presidents should treat each other as equals, and gets snubbed by our major creditor, the equivalent of a banker not giving you an appointment, while Sarah changes the world from her facebook page.

The ability to make a complex and difficult topic as simple as it can be is the mark of a truly brilliant scientist.  The ability to make a complex and difficult topic a little bit simpler than it can be is the mark of a truly brilliant politician.

How bloggers saved the world

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

The Air Vent tells us that China saved the world, which is true, but China saved the world because of what bloggers did.

The enemy plan was to use global warming to roll back science, technology and western civilization.   Copenhagen was to have established a “world climate treaty organization” which would exercise centralized control over all the worlds economies, thereby avoiding that inconvenient embarrassment that ensues whenever socialist economies face comparison with capitalist economies.

Someone released the Climategate files.  I initially believed that this was a hacker from outside, but reading through the files, it is evidently an insider, for each file that I examined is good stuff, which is to say, exceedingly bad stuff.  Each file was being wrongfully and illegally withheld from a freedom of information request, or demonstrates an anti scientific approach and outlook, or both.

Climategate resulted in the removal of Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Australian opposition, the first mainstream politician to fall to bloggers, and his replacement by Tony Abbot, who proceeded to save Australia from trading in carbon indulgences, and to challenge the leader of the Australian government to a double dissolution election over anthropogenic global warming.

This was a bold move when most of the mass media was preaching imminent climate doom.  The polls showed that a double dissolution election held on that issue would be a disaster for the opposition– but polls have been known to change when the people hear two voices instead of one voice.  The government chickened out.

Having won without taking it to the people, Tony Abbot then adopted a blander position similar to that of Sarah Palin – that climate change can be prevented by vague and unspecified means without it costing anybody anything, and the science is not settled.

With Australia, China’s main carbon supplier, out of the picture, it was then difficult to for China to join the treaty.  Without China, there could be no treaty.

The Chinese do not understand democracy and constitutional government, so they reasonably enough blame Rudd, the leader of the Australian government, for the climate skeptic policy of Tony Abbott, leader of the opposition.  After all, they think, surely the government, not the opposition, sets climate policy. With great indignation they pointed out that Rudd is preaching Warmist Alarmism, yet Australia is practicing climate skepticism.   That, at least, is their rebuttal to the Warmist Alarmists. And so, no World Climate Treaty, nor any World Climate Treaty Organization.

So the world is saved for a little longer, and bloggers saved it.  Perhaps the Chinese would have saved it without Abbot’s skeptic policies, but spectacle of Rudd preaching sacrifices to the Chinese that he was unwilling to take to Australian voters, and therefore unable to impose on Australians in the face of Abbot’s opposition, angered them.

Tony Abbot takes aim at Copenhagen

Tuesday, December 8th, 2009

Tony Abbot made news around the world, by unseating Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Australian opposition over Climategate, and then  stalling the carbon tax.   By stalling the tax, Abbot challenged the Prime Minister to a double dissolution election, which would have been a referendum on the carbon tax.  By backing down from that challenge, the Prime Minister finds himself empty handed in Copenhagen, making it much harder to reach agreement.

Abbot concludes that global warming alarmism is not, in fact, very popular among the voters, that skepticism sells when presented as delay, caution, and real science

The following skepticism will not be news to anyone that reads this blog – what will be news is that a competent politician finds it wins votes – that democracy, should the ruling elite pay attention to it, will in this case produce the less disastrous result.

one of the things that I have always found distressing about this debate Alan is the theological way in which it has been conducted – all this talk of deniers and believers, people being put on the spot and being asked to proclaim their faith one way or another.

I mean in the end this whole thing is a question of fact, not faith, or it should be a question of fact not faith and we can discover whether the planet is warming or not by measurement. And it seems that notwithstanding the dramatic increases in man made CO2 emissions over the last decade, the world’s warming has stopped.

as if this is some latter-day environmental Munich agreement kind of thing. … there is far too much hype here and we all need to be objective and dispassionate about this because man is more than capable of rising to the challenge of the environment but we won’t do it if we rush into things in a fit of environmental rectitude.

once you have got to explain why you have got this giant money-go-round taking money from polluters, then giving it back to people via these indirect mechanisms that certainly aren’t going to end up equalizing the burdens, I think then people start to say, ‘hang on a minute, this is all a bit of a con’.

there’s Kevin heading off to Copenhagen to solve problems that may or may not occur in 100 years time.

It is working for Tony Abbot, it will therefore work for Republicans, if they have the guts.

Provenance of the surface temperature graph of doom.

Sunday, December 6th, 2009

“So what the hell did Tim do?!! As I keep asking.”

The IPCC blessed the results of Hadley-CRU. Hadley-CRU blessed the results of the religous fanatic PhD student Tim Mitchell, and, as is clear from the Harry Readme file, no one checked how Tim produced these remarkable results.

Harry, in what is now the world’s most studied document on global warming, the Harry_Read_Me.txt file, asks “So what the hell did Tim do?!! As I keep asking.”

How then did a lowly PhD student, a creature generally treated as of only marginally greater value than lab rats, and the South Park Evangelical Church, get the remarkable power to shape the fate of nations?

The answer, of course, is government funding. Grantsmanship will always out compete real science, because bureaucrats lack real interest in either the science or the wise expenditure of the money. Important experts in grantsmanship, such as Phil Jones, are far too important to be bothered with the menial task of gathering data to support theories that have already been determined to be true for reasons of grantsmanship, so they delegate this utterly insignificant task (insignificant since the truth is determined by the scientific consensus, not mere data) to someone as menial and insignificant as the task they are to perform.

Again and again in the Climategate emails we see someone important, an eminent scientist, an important person, directing some menial and insignificant research assistant to produce data with the desired and expected results necessary to advocate a political position. Tim, one of these menial and insignificant worms in CRU, got the menial and insignificant job of providing proof that the end of the world was nigh, which he proceeded, enthusiastically, to do. Very enthusiastically. No one bothered to check how he did it. To this day, no one knows how he did it, not Phil Jones, his boss, who directed him to do it, and not the IPCC, with its hundreds of thousands of eminent reviewers, and not Harry, who (unlike the IPCC and Phil Jones) reviewed Tim’s data and programs at considerable length.

The consensus, like the Vatican, is inerrant. Embarrassing Tim Mitchell lies under the bus but his made up data goes marching on. The consensus may change, but not only is the consensus never wrong, it never was wrong.

The Cathedral, by its circular nature, is apt to become ever more detached from reality, which we are seeing in action. The Cathedral rules the world, no alternative is in sight, yet is insane and inherently becoming more insane without possibility of reform. The reaction to Climategate is to become ever more impregnably indifferent to external reality, more overtly a theocratic religion demanding human sacrifice. So long as the Cathedral rules, the west will decline.

The Cathedral loses

Wednesday, December 2nd, 2009

When the mainstream media, academia, the state department, senior civil servants, and the leading politicians (the Cathedral) get behind an issue, they win, no matter how stupid, evil, or simply insane that position is. And if they are temporarily stalled, there will be some compromise, followed, when no one is looking, by a compromise on that compromise, until they have what they were determined to get.

It is interesting therefore that so far, neither president Zelaya, nor anyone resembling him, is president for life of Honduras.

In a free and fair election, conducted with lots of international observers, the candidate the Cathedral did not like, won.

Quietly, furtively, and shamefacedly, the US has announced it will recognize the result, despite previously ranting that if free and fair elections were permitted, it would legitimize a coup – the “coup” being the procedures that the Honduran constitution prescribed to prevent free and fair elections from being subverted by political power.

The Honduran Constitution prescribes swift, simple, informal, public, and drastic solutions to such problems. This seems to work against the Cathedral, which likes a cloud of complexity, compromise, and secrecy to conceal its shenanigans. It was a “coup” because it was not the kind of process that the Cathedral could manipulate without anyone understanding what was going on.

Judaism is racism, says the British Court of Appeals

Wednesday, November 11th, 2009

A Jewish school, partially funded by the British taxpayer, has been ordered it cannot define Jews by descent, because this is “racism”.  Unfortunately, Judaism does define Jews by descent.  If the effect of the ruling was merely that Jewish institutions, being “racist” cannot receive government funding, this would not be too bad, but unfortunately, Britain prohibits “racist” association generally, so the ruling logically prohibits Jewish association generally, thus the practice of Judaism generally.

“The requirement that if a pupil is to qualify for admission his mother must be Jewish, whether by descent or conversion, is a test of ethnicity which contravenes the Race Relations Act,… [Whether the reasons were] benign or malignant, theological or supremacist makes it no less and no more unlawful.”

Judaism is not going to be suppressed tomorrow, the government will not immediately proceed with all the logical implications of the ruling, but this is the beginning of a long slow end.  When England went Protestant, it allowed Jews in.  As it goes Muslim, it is going to send them out.

The Guardian is lecturing Britain’s chief Rabbi on what the Jewish religion should be.  It is a reasonable enough lecture if given by one private citizen to another, and I am sure that lots of Jews have said the same thing, but a very menacing lecture when backed by court and state.  And if Jews comply with this perfectly reasonable lecture, chances are that next year something else, not quite so reasonable, will be found that is wrong with Jews.

Shmuley Boteach very passionately argues that the court, and the guardian, is full of $#!%, similarly Spengler, and Secular Right but whether or not they are full of $#!% they are full of menace.

Muqata suggests it is time for all Jews to get out of Britain.  Not yet it is not, but that is the way the wind is blowing.

Political correctness kills people

Sunday, November 8th, 2009

Section 3 of the US constitution.

Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying war against them, or in adhering to their enemies, giving them aid and comfort.

Major Nidal Malik Hasan adhered to our enemies and gave our enemies aid and comfort. He then waged war against the united states, shooting 43 soldiers who were not carrying arms at the time.

When he adhered to our enemies and gave them aid and comfort, he should have been (if not charged with treason) dishonorably discharged on the basis that he was unwilling to perform his contract with the united states army, which paid for his education.

Because political correctness holds that Islam is the religion of peace, Major Nidal Malik Hasan cannot be charged with treason, since it cannot be acknowledged that a very large proportion of Muslims are guilty of treason, probably most of those who take their religion seriously. Indeed. If you are an American Muslim, you are guilty of treason against the US, or treason against Dar al Islam, one or the other.

Because political correctness holds that women can fight fires just as well as men, some of the requirements for firefighters, notably the ability to carry an unconscious man to safety, have necessarily been eliminated. And so people burn to death in fires.

And similarly, millions die each year from malaria, which could be easily prevented, but political correctness forbids it.

Fighting to lose in Afghanistan.

Sunday, November 1st, 2009

Hillary has just announced that it is fine by her for Karzai to steal the election.

“that bestowed legitimacy from that moment forward”

Details, x

Democrats of the Vietnam generation long for a re-run of Vietnam. Karzai is militarily incompetent, an enemy of western civilization, and is fighting to lose, thus to allow him to steal the election is defeatism, guaranteeing the Vietnam quagmire that Democrats long for.  Next stop, conscription, compulsory voluntary community service.

The correct response, as I have long argued, to this and to each of Karzai’s previous grave provocations, is to put him in a sack, and drop the sack on Pakistan’s presidential palace from ten thousand feet as a message to the president of Pakistan.

This Afghan government is clearly a disadvantage in our efforts to slay our enemies.  If Afghanistan can only be governed by enemy tyrants, why should we permit it to be governed?  Propping up governments is hard, costly, and bloody.  Propping up illegitimate enemy tyrannies is stupid.

In Afghanistan we are already defeated. From now on, it is just a theatrical display of American weakness and impotence, to the great rejoicing of our enemies within and without.

going rogue: compassionate conservatism

Monday, October 26th, 2009

Sarah Palin has announced

Our nation is at a crossroads, and this is once again a “time for choosing.”

But unfortunately, the leadership of the Republican party, “the political machine” does not want a straight up and down vote on the choice.

Suddenly Sarah Palin is the leader of the Republican party, and “the political machine” is no longer the leader,  for when “the political machine” endorsed Dede Scozzafava for New York’s 23rd Congressional district, Republican money and volunteers failed to flow to Dede Scozzafava, but when Sarah Palin endorsed Doug Hoffman for New York’s 23rd Congressional district, Republican money and volunteers did flow to Doug Hoffman.

Stick a fork in, their goose is cooked.  The electoral is heading to a straight up and down vote on Sarah Palin’s list of issues – on the crossroads as she defines it.

Why “stimulus” does not work.

Tuesday, October 20th, 2009

We do not want jobs.  We want creation of wealth.  Regrettably, creating wealth usually requires an unreasonable amount of work.  Even more regrettably, doing an unreasonable amount of work is unlikely to create wealth.  Thus if we try to “create jobs”, we are likely to destroy, rather than create, wealth.

It is very easy to create jobs.  The chain on the chainsaw breaks, and one has to use an axe.  Think of all the jobs created!  Ban chainsaws!  “Green jobs” are of this kind.