Archive for the ‘science’ Category

Plain speaking on warmist “science”

Thursday, January 29th, 2009

Hansen’s former supervisor tells us plainly what Climate Audit has been telling us politely

The models do not realistically simulate the climate system because there are many very important sub-grid scale processes that the models either replicate poorly or completely omit. Furthermore, some scientists have manipulated the observed data to justify their model results. In doing so, they neither explain what they have modified in the observations, nor explain how they did it. They have resisted making their work transparent so that it can be replicated independently by other scientists. This is clearly contrary to how science should be done. Thus there is no rational justification for using climate model forecasts to determine public policy.

The Origin of Species

Saturday, January 24th, 2009

blogging the origin” criticizes Darwin for emphasizing selection, rather than separation, as the primary cause of speciation. But we now know that Darwin was, as usual, right, and the latest fashions were, as usual, wrong again.

Until recently the evidence for *any* speciation was thin, and in the absence of evidence, people liked to imagine speciation by physical separation, in large part due the rhetoric of Gould, who argued that absence of evidence was evidence for presence of the events he wished were happening.

The research on three spined sticklebacks, shows that for three spined sticklebacks, sympatric speciation is extremely common, and allopatric speciation is insignificant in the sense that: if two physically separated groups of three spined sticklebacks adapt to similar environments, they become similar, and can and will interbreed if given the opportunity, but if they adapt to different environments, then, whether separated or not, they become different, and disinclined to interbreed if given the opportunity.

Science. 2000 Jan 14;287(5451):306-8

“Populations of sticklebacks that evolved under different ecological conditions show strong reproductive isolation, whereas populations that evolved independently under similar ecological conditions lack isolation.”

Which implies that:  separation and drift does not matter in speciation, does not cause speciation; Differential adaption matters, does cause speciation, as Darwin argued.

Our most complete record on speciation events is that for foraminifera, because we have a humungous number of fossils neatly stacked in layers at the sea bottom.
For foraminifera, all observed speciation events that have been observed in sufficient detail are sympatric.

Gould wanted to discredit sympatric speciation, and argued for the primacy of allopatric speciation, because if adaption, rather than separation, is primary, then this has disturbing implications for our own species. From the supposed primacy of separation over adaption, Gould argued in his essay “human equality is a contingent fact of history” that the races of man must be equal in mean and distribution of abilities, thus the primacy of adaptive speciation over allopatric speciation that we do in fact observe today is as disturbingly politically incorrect as Darwin’s comments on the races of man.

If it is possible for sticklebacks that share a single lake to divide into two species, despite substantial interbreeding, then it is probable that humans whose ancestors lived for the last fifty thousand years or so in an environment where lack of future orientation would result in freezing in bad weather and starving in winter, have considerably greater future orientation than humans whos ancestors lived in an environment where failure to prepare for the future was considerably less likely to be lethal.

The Hockey Stick Graph

Wednesday, August 13th, 2008

Bishop Hill explains the Hockey Stick Graph. It is an exceedingly long and complicated story, even in his simplified version, but the short of it is:  The global warmerists lied.

Global warming is not science

Thursday, July 31st, 2008

Science is based on experiment and evidence.  The motto of the royal society was “Nullius in verba”, which means “Take no one’s word for it”.  This motto was reinterpreted to accommodate the “evidence” for global warming. Most science journals have condition of publication that authors must comply with any reasonable request by other researchers for materials, methods, or data necessary to verify the conclusion of the article, which condition has not yet been enforced against the global warmers.

Not Science

Wednesday, July 16th, 2008

Recently the CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Research Organization) dressed itself in the robes of high holy science, and portentously announced that the wrath of Gaea was upon us. Other scientists asked for the details of the evidence, but alas, the highly scientific scientists of the CSIRO found themselves sadly unable to provide the evidence.

How global warming “science” works

Thursday, May 1st, 2008

Dr. Tim Ball reports that the IPCC first created the “Summary for Policy Makers” report, then the science report that it is supposedly a summary of.

“Changes (other than grammatical or minor editorial changes) made after acceptance by the Working Group or the Panel shall be those necessary to ensure consistency with the Summary for Policymakers (SPM) or the Overview Chapter.”

Unfortunately, it is not only global warming global warming “science” that works like this, but most science since the late twentieth century

This was, in the end, the unavoidable result of government funding for science. He who pays the piper, calls the tune. He sleeps with elephants, wakes up flat. For science to be science, scientists need to cultivate a wider range of patrons and sources of funding.

Cooking the data

Monday, April 7th, 2008

Steve’s Climate Audit has found yet another entertaining example of carelessness or dishonesty by the Anthropogenic Global Warming holy Gaia rollers, as he does ever week or so.

I think the underlying mechanism of all these many errors is that the holy Gaia rollers massage the data one way, then they massage it another way, then another, and another, until they come up with a result that is on message, without ever bothering to think about what these various data massages mean.

“Global” means “let us throw any data into the pot that we can find, without regard for accuracy or even relevance, and if we cannot find any data sufficiently global, let us just make it up”, and “analyze” means “let us find obscure statistical excuses for chucking out any data that is off message, while pretending we are still taking account of it rather than rejecting it”.