Archive for the ‘science’ Category

The problem with peer review

Wednesday, February 24th, 2010

Peer review is not part of the scientific method. In most fields, for example physics, it is a new thing, and wherever it has become a standard thing, we see stagnation.

Peer review keeps out cranks, but it also keeps out the impious. It makes it safe for a science to become a religion, and for scientists to become priests of a state sponsored theocracy. Cranks have never been a threat to science, state sponsored theocracy has always been a threat to science, thus peer review has always been a failure. It is caused by science becoming theology, and causes science to become theology.

Back in the days when physics made dramatic progress, there was little peer review, perhaps none. For example, “Electrodynamics of Moving bodies” was not peer reviewed, and my guess is that today it would never have passed peer review – because it was written by a patent clerk, and was in large part a novel way of looking at results that were a hundred years old. Outsiders, and novel ways of looking at things are pretty much guaranteed to fail peer review.

The science is scuttled

Tuesday, January 26th, 2010

Nasa, as evidence that we are doomed unless we make sufficient sacrifice to Gaia and tithe to Gaia’s high priesthood, has long had on its web page

Mountain Glaciers and snow cover have declined on average in both hemispheres and may disappear altogether in certain regions of the planet, such as the Himalayas, by 2030

Which web page has silently changed

So was it a lie, or an error?

I knew data hadn’t been verified … we thought if we can highlight it, it will impact policy makers and politicians and encourage them to take concrete action.

In other words, a lie. And if one lie, all lies.

As Patrick Archibald told us of an earlier scandal with the same lesson, the science is scuttled

Global warming science in action

Sunday, January 24th, 2010

The “Air Vent” follows the money:

The IPCC makes a hyperbolic claim about retreating glaciers, which claim originates from a for profit company owned by the chairman of the IPCC.  Millions of dollars are then granted to this company to investigate this purported disaster, to the personal profit of the chairman of the IPCC.

Mencius and Kling agree

Saturday, January 16th, 2010

Mencius Moldbug has long argued, in an exceedingly long winded fashion, that we live in a theocracy.  The priesthood teach that the state deserves authority, the schools teach the official religion, and the state funds the schools and the priesthood.

Now Arnold Kling gives the same analysis, calling it market failure, rather than theocracy

Suppose that we have a group that wants enormous political power. The group rewards people who justify its power by calling them “experts.” It punishes those who question its power by dismissing them as “hacks.” If you want money and status, you want to be labeled as an expert. In order to be labeled as an expert, you produce analysis that justifies concentrated political power for the elite group.

This process is self-reinforcing. It is like the Harvard-Goldman filter. That filter says that only “reliable” people are allowed to be bank CEO’s or policymakers. A requirement for being “reliable” is sharing the views of other “reliable” people as to what constitutes reliability.

It is like the tenure system in academia. Who gets tenure? Above all, it is people who support the existing tenure system

Mencius’s proposed cure for this problem is a “strong” sensible state, where “strong” means something very like fascist, or despotic. However, strong states have a poor record for sanity.  Power tends to isolate the possessor from reality.

Another solution for this problem, something that Kling would probably find more congenial, is Mencius’s “antiuniversity”

After all, the previous theocracy bit the dust thanks to protestantism and the reformation, which held one could do religion without a hierarchy. If religion can be done without a hierarchy, so can science.  The priesthood is the most vulnerable part of a theocracy.

No twentieth century warming 3

Monday, January 4th, 2010

Hadcrut temperatures are fraudulent, for the Climategate files reveals that no one knows how they were constructed.

The Air vent attempts an honest reconstruction:
Air vent estimate of twentieth century temperatures

Of course, this reconstruction can only be as good as the data it rests on, which we now know from the Climategate documents directory to be poor.  I argue we should throw out all dubious data – which likely means we should rely on proxy indications of temperature for the early part of the century.

The scientific method

Monday, January 4th, 2010

When science becomes a priesthood, it is no longer science.

Reference to authority is unscientific, indeed antiscientific, a rejection of the principles of
science.  One must appeal to evidence, not authority.  What authority says is not scientific evidence.

Independent replication is evidence.

If people all over the world have  made observations for the last 100 years about  temperature, I can’t replicate them; but other people at the time could replicate them.

The date at which Lake Winnipesaukee ice goes out, is the date at which people can go to their properties, and do go to their properties.  If the ice out date was wrong, they would notice and be mighty pissed.  I selected Lake Winnipesaukee, because that is the lake  whose ice outs receive the most attention unrelated to  estimating climate. Of all older climate data, Lake Winnipesaukee ice outs are the best replicated, thus, the most scientific.

And ice out dates on Lake Winnipesaukee indicate no twentieth century warming That I provide the data and method of calculation, and that this data is the most widely replicated data available means that this blog post is far more scientific than anything that could ever be permitted to appear in the journals “Nature” or “Science”.

This is the opposite of the Giss-Hadley-CRU approach, which uses vast piles of data whose validity no one can possibly know, and which there is every reason to doubt, and then capriciously excludes some of that data, includes other of that data, and whimsically adjusts what is included for reasons that are not only not revealed, but which the Climategate files revealed that Hadley-CRU themselves do not record, which large adjustments, even if justified rather than fraudulent, are an admission of the complete worthlessness of the data for the purpose.  No one can possibly know, not even Hadley-CRU, whether their adjustments are justified or fraudulent, not that it would matter since if the large adjustments are justified, the data is worthless for the purpose of estimating past climate.

If you have to estimate the veracity of the reports based on the authority of what you know about those making the reports, that is not science, but religion.  Those with the greatest authority are always the most religious, thus this approach guarantees acceptance of the most holy doctrine of the consensus of the most holy and eminent synod – which approach is anthropogenic global warming in a nutshell.

“The consensus” is not science.

Science is common sense, observation, truthfulness, and impartiality, with social mechanisms to enforce truthfulness and impartiality.  If science becomes a priesthood, if you hear the words “consensus” and “peer reviewed publication”, the mechanisms that enforce truthfulness and impartiality have failed.  “Peer reviewed”is only an indication of some connection to reality when people do not rely on it as evidence of connection to reality.

How bloggers saved the world

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

The Air Vent tells us that China saved the world, which is true, but China saved the world because of what bloggers did.

The enemy plan was to use global warming to roll back science, technology and western civilization.   Copenhagen was to have established a “world climate treaty organization” which would exercise centralized control over all the worlds economies, thereby avoiding that inconvenient embarrassment that ensues whenever socialist economies face comparison with capitalist economies.

Someone released the Climategate files.  I initially believed that this was a hacker from outside, but reading through the files, it is evidently an insider, for each file that I examined is good stuff, which is to say, exceedingly bad stuff.  Each file was being wrongfully and illegally withheld from a freedom of information request, or demonstrates an anti scientific approach and outlook, or both.

Climategate resulted in the removal of Malcolm Turnbull as leader of the Australian opposition, the first mainstream politician to fall to bloggers, and his replacement by Tony Abbot, who proceeded to save Australia from trading in carbon indulgences, and to challenge the leader of the Australian government to a double dissolution election over anthropogenic global warming.

This was a bold move when most of the mass media was preaching imminent climate doom.  The polls showed that a double dissolution election held on that issue would be a disaster for the opposition– but polls have been known to change when the people hear two voices instead of one voice.  The government chickened out.

Having won without taking it to the people, Tony Abbot then adopted a blander position similar to that of Sarah Palin – that climate change can be prevented by vague and unspecified means without it costing anybody anything, and the science is not settled.

With Australia, China’s main carbon supplier, out of the picture, it was then difficult to for China to join the treaty.  Without China, there could be no treaty.

The Chinese do not understand democracy and constitutional government, so they reasonably enough blame Rudd, the leader of the Australian government, for the climate skeptic policy of Tony Abbott, leader of the opposition.  After all, they think, surely the government, not the opposition, sets climate policy. With great indignation they pointed out that Rudd is preaching Warmist Alarmism, yet Australia is practicing climate skepticism.   That, at least, is their rebuttal to the Warmist Alarmists. And so, no World Climate Treaty, nor any World Climate Treaty Organization.

So the world is saved for a little longer, and bloggers saved it.  Perhaps the Chinese would have saved it without Abbot’s skeptic policies, but spectacle of Rudd preaching sacrifices to the Chinese that he was unwilling to take to Australian voters, and therefore unable to impose on Australians in the face of Abbot’s opposition, angered them.

What the climategate files reveal.

Sunday, December 20th, 2009

The killer directory in the climategate files is not the email directory, but the documents directory, for the documents directory reveals how the graphs of doom were generated.  One should only employ the emails directory to illuminate what is documented in the documents directory.

The Climategate files reveal that the graphs of doom are irreproducible, for Harry was unable to reproduce them, except by means at best extremely dubious, “So what the hell did Tim do?!!” at worst frankly fraudulent.  “Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!”

The documents directory reveals that data issuing from the Warming alarmists is fake, for it was Harry’s job to produce or reproduce these graphs of doom, and he describes in alarming detail how the graphs of doom were manufactured.   Every graph generated from the programs and data of the documents directory  of Climategate files is at worst a lie, at best fabricated without concern for truth, and proves the falsity of those graphs of doom that Harry was required to reproduce, for he was unable to reproduce any of them by legitimate means.

The Climategate files reveal that the method of anthropogenic warmist alarmism is that “scientists” construct a consensus, and then they examine data and papers for conformity with the consensus.  Data that fails to conform to theory is rejected, then hidden or deleted. Papers that fail to conform are rejected. They then direct some menial postgrad student, first Tim, then later Harry, to produce graphs that show the result that they have already determined that the graphs will show.

What the climategate papers reveal is religion, not science, for when we read Harry’s comments and code, it is apparent that his job is not to find what the data shows, but to force the data to show a result that has been predetermined.

How “Science” responds to heresy

Monday, December 14th, 2009

Australian Climate Madness has a revealing video.

The professor refuses to address the question,  then the UN goons come out to stop the questions.

Thousands of scientists endorse evidence of anthropogenic global warming

Friday, December 11th, 2009

And every single one of them can be easily proven to be a fraud who should be in jail.

If one endorses evidence of anthropogenic global warming, the evidence one is endorsing is the findings of the IPCC. And one of the major findings of the IPCC is Phil Jones surface temperature data. So if one endorses evidence of anthropogenic global warming, one endorses the surface temperature data – which we now know came out of Tim Mitchell’s @%$#.

“So what the hell did Tim do?!! As I keep asking.”

Thousands of scientists endorsed the IPCC publications. They might say, “I trust Phil Jones, I can’t imagine he would lie.” If someone says that, he’s not speaking as a scientist, he is speaking as an outsider who is taking someone else’s word for it. But what they’re doing is claiming to speak as scientists, pretending to have examined the evidence, when the Climategate files reveal they have not, that they could not have, for Phil Jones has no evidence for them to examine. So each of them is guilty of fraud, each of them should be in jail.

Science education, both informal and formal, is full of “check it out for yourself”. You don’t get to say that you understand a mathematical theorem unless you’ve actually gone through the proof – probably regenerated the proof as an exercise based on the instructor’s clues. You don’t take anybody’s word for it. There is no trust in math. Zero. No need for it. And in programming, you have to write the damn program for yourself. You don’t take anybody’s word that it works. And in physics, you’re not learning physics unless you do the labs, and see for yourself. Otherwise you’re just doing not-very-rigorous mathematics.

But when it comes to global warming, all of a sudden the talk is of “consensus”. All along, the science student has been taught not to trust anyone, not even his own teacher. To trust only his own senses and his own mind. And now, we’re supposed to trust a “consensus”

The most incriminating part of the Climate gate files is not “hide the decline”.

The most incriminating part of the Climate gate files is not “So what the hell did Tim do?!!”

The most incriminating part of the Climate gate files is the dog that did not bark in the night time – that no one, except for Harry, showed any interest whatsoever in the data, in checking the data out, in the process of reasoning and mathematics connecting data to results, that Phil Jones delegated what was supposedly the major job of the CRU, estimating global temperatures, to a postgrad, and never asked how that postgrad obtained the desired result – that everyone, except for Harry, viewed science as the task of building a consensus and imposing that consensus on all, not the task of gathering evidence and trying to figure out what the evidence reveals.

What the Climategate files reveals is not science, but religion. Scientists replicate. Synods build consensus. The Climategate files show a synod in action.