Archive for the ‘Uncategorized’ Category

Five more years

Friday, February 16th, 2018

Scott Alexander’s predictions for the next year have become ever more cautious, thus ever more boring and ever less likely to be falsified.  And then he came up with a pile of wild assed stuff for the next five years:

AI will be marked by various spectacular achievements, plus nobody being willing to say the spectacular achievements signify anything broader. AI will beat humans at progressively more complicated games, and we will hear how games are totally different from real life and this is just a cool parlor trick.

In other words, he will say it is spectacular, and I will say it is more of the same boring stuff.

AI translation will become flawless,

No it will not. AI translation is as good as it is going to get – gives you a good guess as to what the speaker is actually talking about, while remaining unacceptable as a finished product. You get the gist of things when AI translating between closely related languages like English and Spanish, and near gibberish when AI translating between distantly related languages like Chinese and English – a marginal improvement on what you would get by language dictionary lookup.

1. Average person can hail a self-driving car in at least one US city: 80%

2. …in at least five of ten largest US cities: 30%
3. At least 5% of truck drivers have been replaced by self-driving trucks: 10%

Nah.

4. Average person can buy a self-driving car for less than $100,000: 30%

But he will have to sit at the wheel, and will likely die if he falls asleep at the wheel.

The European Union will not collapse.

The EU is a branch of the US empire, and I have long predicted failure or similar crisis for the US empire in 2026. As long as the US stands, its servants in Europe will continue to do as they are damn well told.

Countries that may have an especially good half-decade: Israel, India, Nigeria, most of East Africa, Iran. Countries that may have an especially bad half-decade: Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, UK. The Middle East will get worse before it gets better, especially Lebanon and the Arabian Peninsula (Syria might get better, though).

“May have”? What sort of a prediction is that? Might be right, cannot be wrong.

Here is my actual prediction. Russia will have a great decade. South Africa will drift from a shit hole to a hell hole.

Religion will continue to retreat from US public life.

Scott has not noticed that the US has an official religion that daily becomes more extreme, deranged, puritanical, and oppressive

As it becomes less important, mainstream society will treat it as less of an outgroup and more of a fargroup. Everyone will assume Christians have some sort of vague spiritual wisdom, much like Buddhists do. Everyone will agree evangelicals or anyone with a real religious opinion is just straight-out misinterpreting the Bible, the same way any Muslim who does something bad is misinterpreting the Koran. Christian mysticism will become more popular among intellectuals. Lots of people will talk about how real Christianity opposes capitalism. There may not literally be a black lesbian Pope, but everyone will agree that there should be, and people will become mildly surprised when you remind them that the Pope is white, male, and sexually inactive.

OK, this prediction will come true, but this, like Europe continuing, is just the official religion of the US empire continuing. The official religion of the US empire will fall, but probably survive for more than five years.

1. Trump wins 2020: 20%

Trump will win in 2020, assuming no coup or violent death. Democracy has already expired. The question is how soon this becomes obvious, and to what extent violence will ensue when people realize it.

On the other hand, everyone will have underestimated the extent of crisis in the Democratic Party.

The misconduct of the Clinton presidential campaign was a manifestation of the fact that the pretense of democracy in the Democratic party was irrelevant to outcomes. It will go right on being irrelevant to outcomes. With the Clinton machine at best falling apart, and at worst being sent to jail, power in the Democratic party will fall into the hands of a Lenin type individual who realizes the irrelevance of electoral politics and proceeds to grab power directly. Primaries will remain irrelevant to the outcome, but the man seizing power will probably be radically left.

Slate Star Codex predicts politics as normal, the usual stuff in the usual ways, that something like what recently happened will happen again. I predict the unexpected – at least as startling as Trump himself, probably a lot more startling. Expect the unexpected. The Republic approaches its end. It will probably not end in five years, but the storms of its coming fall will rage.

The culture wars will continue to be marked by both sides scoring an unrelenting series of own-goals, with the victory going to whoever can make their supporters shut up first. The best case scenario for the Right is that Jordan Peterson’s ability to not instantly get ostracized and destroyed signals a new era of basically decent people being able to speak out against social justice; this launches a cascade of people doing so, and the vague group consisting of Jordan Peterson, Sam Harris, Steven Pinker, Jonathan Haidt, etc coalesces into a perfectly respectable force no more controversial than the gun lobby or the pro-life movement or something. With social justice no longer able to enforce its own sacredness values against blasphemy, it loses a lot of credibility and ends up no more powerful or religion-like than eg Christianity. The best case scenario for the Left is that the alt-right makes some more noise, the media is able to relentlessly keep everyone’s focus on the alt-right, the words ALT-RIGHT get seared into the public consciousness every single day on every single news website, and everyone is so afraid of being associated with the alt-right that they shut up about any disagreements with the consensus they might have. I predict both of these will happen, but the Right’s win-scenario will come together faster and they will score a minor victory.

Slate star predicts politics as they are now continuing, but politics as they are now are already extraordinary and remarkable by the standards of two years ago. Again, I predict the unexpected – a significant likelihood of democide or ethnic cleansing, with whites being driven out of large areas, and then blamed for the ensuing ruin that follows when they are no longer holding stuff together. More drama, more surprises, more shock.

The last two years have been very surprising for everyone except me – I predicted Trumps victory shortly after he announced. And I predict the next two years to be even more surprising, and the three years after that to be even more surprising, with a continuing drift towards civil war, democide and genocide, though we probably will not see democide, genocide, and civil war for about six years or so.

First World economies will increasingly be marked by an Officialness Divide. Rich people, the government, and corporations will use formal, well-regulated, traditional institutions. Poor people (and to an increasing degree middle-class people) will use informal gig economies supported by Silicon Valley companies whose main skill is staying a step ahead of regulators. Think business travelers staying at the Hilton and riding taxis, vs. low-prospect twenty-somethings staying at Air BnBs and taking Ubers. As Obamacare collapses, health insurance will start turning into one of the formal, well-regulated, traditional institutions limited to college grads with good job prospects. What the unofficial version of health care will be remains to be seen. If past eras have been Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age, Information Age, etc, the future may be the Ability-To-Circumvent-Regulations Age.

On this, we agree.

Cryptocurrency will neither collapse nor take over everything. It will become integrated into the existing system and regulated to the point of uselessness. No matter how private and untraceable the next generation of cryptocurrencies are, people will buy and exchange them through big corporate websites that do everything they can to stay on the government’s good side.

Nah. Bitcoin may well collapse, and its successor (probably Monero) may also collapse, but one cryptocurrency, maybe Bitcoin, maybe Monero, maybe something not yet on the radar, will eat the world. If it has not eaten the world in five years, the storm of its coming will nonetheless be evident, and will profoundly undermine the government’s ability to control the economy.

Multinationals will occasionally debate using crypto to transfer their profits from one place to another, then decide that would make people angry and decide not to.

Already false.  Crypto transfers are already big – and already cryptic.

Skipping most of his predictions as boring and hard to decide what would constitute fulfillment of the rather vague prediction.

3. Paris Agreement still in effect, most countries generally making good-faith effort to comply: 80%

Already false. No one is making a genuine good faith effort to comply.

4. US still nominally committed to Paris Agreement: 60%

Already false. In 2017 June the US announced it had ceased all implementation of the Paris Accord. That is something a bit less than being “nominally committed”. That will not change, and people are already forgetting that there ever was a Paris agreement. The only real action item on the Paris accord was smashing Americans in flyover country, making them suffer, and providing political cover for smashing Americans in flyover country. If Americans in flyover county are not being smashed, not one gives a tinker’s dam about the rest of it. It is already sliding out of sight and out of mind.

Request for research assistance

Sunday, January 14th, 2018

Since our existing state religion has gone rabid in an insane holiness spiral, we are in the business of designing a Gnon compliant state religion.

We need to steal from the best. If all societies had the economic system of twentieth century Hong Kong, all societies would have the economic outcomes of Hong Kong. If all societies had the healthcare system of Singapore, all societies would have the health outcomes and healthcare costs of Singapore. And if all societies had the family law of Timor Leste, all societies would have the fertility of Timor Leste.

Well, then, we need to steal the state religion that Charles the second imposed, which gave us empire, science, and industrialization.

So how did his state religion handle courtship and marriage?

I hope to find a clue in the County microfilm records: Library of Virginia:  Available by interlibrary loan.

Lancaster County:

Reel 102 Marriage Bonds & Consents, 1706 – 1819

Reel 350 Marriage Bonds, 1701, 1715-1736

Northhampton County:

Reel 99 Marriage Bonds & Consents, 1706 – 1780

Reel 62 Marriage Register, 1706 – 1853 c, Unpaged (Stratton Nottingham Compilation)

The consents and bonds are the juicy part, since that is the parent or guardian contracting with the prospective son in law that he damn well will get married.

The bond is a promise to pay damages if the marriage is not carried out – so I assume the couple are having sex at the time of the bond, or immediately after. (Otherwise, there would be no need to pay damages)

Bonds go from 1660, When Charles the Second’s Anglicanism was imposed in England, to 1860, when marriage as it has been understood for the past couple of thousand years was legally abolished in England (though it continued to be socially enforced till about 1972. ) Virginia of course was not subject to English rule in 1860, but its state religion was still effectively the Church of England, much as the State Religion of Israel is not Judaism, but United States State Department progressivism.

I am not at present located where it is easy to get an interlibrary loan, so will someone please look at these, see what is juicy, and if there are any good parts, send me a scan, or a link in the comments to a scan.

The Blue Empire of the Consulates continues to collapse

Tuesday, December 19th, 2017

Pakistan expels the NGOs. So, soft power looks like it is not doing too well in Syria, Libya, Sudan, the Philippines, Hungary, and Pakistan. (more…)

Why we need the double standard.

Thursday, July 20th, 2017

Chastity should be imposed on women, not men. A key that opens many locks is an awesome key. A lock that can be opened by many keys is a crappy lock.

The problem is that women are hypergamous, while men are polygynous. A man wants to possess many women, while a woman wants to be possessed by the best possible man. Which means that if we let nature take its course, a few men will have most of the women. Notice surveys in which many women report having boyfriends, and considerably fewer men report having girlfriends, even though we would expect the lying to go in the opposite direction.

Of course each of the top male’s many girlfriends will be causing much drama, as each seeks to get a higher position in his booty call list, with the result that they keep shifting from one alpha male to the next. So though they are only sleeping with one male at a time, they have numerous male orbiters, and are continually shifting from one male to the next to get a better deal. The male defects by being a jerk, by never being available, by never providing resources, the female defects by dumping him. So though in this system women do not particularly want to be serially monogamous, defect/defect equilibrium means that in practice they are serially monogamous.

Sperm is cheap, eggs are dear. Therefore we should guard eggs, not sperm. What this means is that it only needs a small number of badboys to render a very large number of women unmarriageable. Thus curtailing male badboy behavior is not going to succeed. And if we restrain prosocial well behaved upper class men from being badboys, the girls are going to get their kicks with Jeremy Meeks and Muslim rapeugees. Restraining male behavior results in upper class women fucking men low IQ men who live on towel folding jobs, petty burglary, drug dealing, and sponging off their numerous high IQ high socioeconomic status girlfriend, men whose careers are not going to be adversely affected by a few rape charges, underage sex charges, child support orders, and domestic violence restraint orders. The lawyerette does not fuck her fellow lawyers, she does not fuck judges, she fucks Jeremy Meeks. If we let upper class men be badboys, if we stopped afflicting judges with rape charges, underage sex charges, child support orders, and domestic violence restraining orders, at least she would be fucking judges.

The problem is that law and society strengthens shit tests against well behaved, respectable, affluent men, but has limited success in strengthening shit tests against Jeremy Meeks. She fucks men against whom rape charges, underage sex charges, child support orders, and domestic violence restraining orders have limited effect, because they can pass her shit tests, and you, even if you have a nicer car and a nicer hotel room than Jeremy Meeks, cannot. Plus the police and the courts just don’t seem to be pursuing rape charges against rapeugees, perhaps because of disparate impact.

All these laws have the effect of holding men responsible for female bad behavior. It is a lot more effective to hold women responsible for male bad behavior, because women, not men are the gate keepers to sex, romance, and reproduction. If you stop some men from behaving badly, women will just find men you cannot or dare not deter.

The problem is that we need to guard what is precious, guard eggs, not sperm. We need to restrain female sexual behavior, not male sexual behavior.

First, we need to change the social order so that the lawyerette fucks the judge instead of Jeremy Meeks. Then we can address the much harder problem of preventing her from fucking either one.

Trump the chess master or Trump the cuckold

Monday, April 10th, 2017

First, I endorse this excellent post by Heartiste, Minion of Satan.

If Trumps beats the judges on legal immigration, avoids war with Russia, and builds the wall, he is what we thought he was. Hail Trump, God Emperor. Those three items amount to making war on the deep state and winning. Missiling Syria is deeply worrying, but it is far too soon to count him out on what really matters.

And to that excellent post by Heartiste, Minion of Satan, I will add this. In chess, you can see the moves the master makes. When Trump moves, you frequently cannot see him move. Even when his move is public, a fashion statement or a tweet, it is often at a level that you cannot see what he is up to except in retrospect. He is playing a different game to the game his enemies think he is playing. Therefore, while we should take seriously the likelihood that Trump will double cross his loyalists for the praise and flattery of his enemies, we should take considerably less seriously any theory that supposes he is doing something stupid. Which is more likely? That you are smarter than Trump and know more than he does, or that Trump has an ace up his sleeve and a Smith and Wesson in his pocket?

Making warlike moves on Syria is a strategic retreat under fire, never a good sign. The merely temporary government, Trump is retreating under fire from the permanent government. But is is not over till it is over, and now that Gorsuch is in, Trump is free to move on lowering the status of judges, preparatory to going Jackson on them. That is bigger than Syria, though not so big as war with Russia. If Trump gets legal immigration of Muslims severely slowed, avoids war with Russia and avoids installing the head choppers in charge of Syria, the attack on Syria will not have mattered.

Apology to B.

Wednesday, March 29th, 2017

B did in fact win the bet that the Orthodox were holding the line on gay marriage. I failed to notice, because I ignored the evidence he brought up. I will settle the bet shortly.

Poll on the Jewish Problem

Friday, January 27th, 2017

The Jewish Problem

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Maybe a relatively painless Soviet Style collapse?

Friday, October 21st, 2016

I have been predicting, and still predict, that the fall of the Cathedral will be long, bloody, and terrible, and that the Cathedral will likely be replaced by something that none of us want, like the Islamic Caliphate.

But lately there have been happier signs, like the Trumpening.

And the defection of Duterte from the blue empire is another encouraging sign.

Duterte won the Philippine election on a hugely popular program of replacing the dysfunctional justice system with right wing death squads.  The Cathedral could not quite believe this, but after a while started murmuring about doing something, presumably another color revolution after the fashion of Syria.

Whereupon Duterte defected from the “International Community” to China, seeking Chinese protection against US military intervention.

Hillary’s program is to restore the blue empire by overtly violent means. Trump’s program is to let it go.

What happened in the Soviet Union is that when they let Afghanistan go, then another state went, and another state went, and a landslide of states, and then Moscow itself fell.

While the International Community, the blue empire of the consulates, has been struggling with Syria, Thailand and the Philippines have wandered off the reservation. Insurrection has a habit of cascading. To restore control, it would not be sufficient to destroy Syria and have the Alawites and Christians genocided, but war with Thailand and the Philippines might well also be necessary, and might well escalate to similar degrees of horror.

War tends to become far more horrible than those starting it expect. The Cathedral is piously indignant about barrel bombs, forgetting that the neighborhoods being bombed were often quite recently ethnically cleansed of their previous inhabitants by the forces supported by the Cathedral.

It seems to me that if a neighborhood was previously occupied by group A, and then group B drives them out, it is perfectly reasonable for group A and their allies to bomb the hell out the neighborhoods new and old occupied by group B. Yeah, there are children living it those neighborhoods. And there children driven out of their homes by violence when those neighborhoods were ethnically cleansed. The Cathedral has sponsored a whole lot of violent ethnic cleansing in Syria, which caused, and entirely justifies, the violence that we now see in the reconquest of Aleppo.

And the Cathedral has sponsored a whole lot of violent ethnic cleansing in America, to which everyone piously turns a blind eye.

The empire rests on white males, while sadistically increasing the oppression of whites and males to ever more ridiculous extremes. Contrary to the fantasies of the 1488ers, no backlash ensues, instead whites and males become ever more passive, apathetic, terrorized, and emasculated. But on the periphery of empire, the empire is collapsing.

This collapse does not reflect for the most part backlash against anti white and anti male measures (though Boko Haram is unambiguously backlash against anti male measures) but the fundamental military weakness of a society that is constructed by white males, that is entirely dependent on the work and military capability of white males, and is ever more hostile to white males. The utterly extraordinary and almost incredible British defeats in Basra and Helmand province show what happens when you feminize your military. The empire is falling not because white males will fight their oppressors, but because they will not fight for their oppressors. Will the fall of the Blue Empire go all the way to Washington, as the fall of the Soviet Empire went all the way to Moscow?

Nitrocellulose illegalized

Thursday, September 22nd, 2016

The government has defined nitrocellulose, a deflagrating explosive, as a high explosive.

This makes anyone who creates ammunition subject to rules that are impossible to comply with. Fortunately the government has also issued an unprincipled exception, telling people not to worry about it. Just go on handling nitrocellulose as the deflagrating explosive that it actually is, and, wink, nod, we will not prosecute you.

But slowly, over time, unprincipled exceptions always go away. This is a back door criminalization of private ownership of guns. A few years down the line, they will start enforcing this, and say, “Oh, we are just enforcing laws that have been on the books for a long time, but widely ignored.” And private gun owners will find it strangely hard to legally buy ammunition. “Hey, the state has not banned your guns, nor your ammo, just banned anyone who makes ammo for your guns. And this law has been on the books since forever. They are still allowed to make it, but they have to make it safely – except that no one can figure out how to make it safely.”

Of course people who make ammunition for law enforcement and the military will get a continuing unprincipled exception, but people who make ammunition for private customers will not.

Then again, the way they are cutting the balls off our police and military, I would not have a lot of confidence that the military will continue to get ammo either. They banned mines and cluster bombs by a similar back door law: Our government passed laws against our military that could never be complied with, issued an unprincipled exception that allowed mines and cluster bombs, then the unprincipled exception somehow slowly faded away. Meanwhile the Soviets continue to use cluster bombs with devastating effect.

I cannot see any sane reason for banning cluster bombs other than that in the many proxy wars where the Red Empire of the Bases backs one side, and the Blue Empire of the Consulates backs the other side, cluster bombs were blowing the hell out of the State Department’s proxies.

No such thing as moderate Islam

Friday, August 5th, 2016

If a Muslim is not murdering innocents and raping children, he is a bad Muslim.

“Hang on” I hear you say: “Did not you tell us that Alawites, the guys in Syria that the State Department is trying to genocide, are moderate?”

Yes, Alawites are moderate. Their religion also has more gods that you can shake a stick at, they drink wine, celebrate Christmas, and eat pork. They celebrate something suspiciously like mass with wine and bread, plus a pile of pagan deities. Since Christianity is dead in the water, maybe we should convert to Alawism, since the likely alternative is that we get converted at swordpoint to Islam, or we males get killed and our women get converted at swordpoint to Islam. But I digress. Back to moderate Islam.

The great majority of Muslims are profoundly disinclined to blow themselves up in a pizza parlor. But they create an environment were the guy who is apt to blow himself up in a pizza parlor is holier than they are, an environment where the guy who is apt to blow himself up in a pizza parlor can fade into the woodwork when the police come looking for him.

There is no moderate Islam in the sense that there is no Islam where the adherent to the faith who engages in violence against non Muslims is viewed as bad, unholy, an outsider, no Islam where Jihad is not as Islamic as motherhood and apple pie are American. There is no Islam that fails to provide a favorable environment for terror. Terror is so fundamental and intrinsic to Islam, that any supposedly Muslim religion that seriously disengages from terror really is not Muslim, and any Muslim monarchy that fails to support terror gets assailed as inauthentically Muslim, as not taking Islam seriously, and it is transparently apparent that any nominally Muslim monarchy that fails to support terror is inauthentically Muslim, does not take Islam seriously.

For thirteen hundred years, no one has managed to coexist with Islam except in a state of war and near war. We will not be the first.

We have to either convert to Islam, convert to some faith capable of holding its own against Islam, or forbid Islam and expel Muslims.

Converting to Islam is the solution we do not want, the solution that will inevitably happen if we do nothing much. Hillary plans to bring in a hundred million or so male military age Muslims screaming for infidel blood and white pussy, and even if she fails to do so, the militarized Muslim womb will outbreed us, if nothing is done. In America and Europe large numbers of fertile age white women are converting to Islam, because Muslims are the only men that can get away with being manly, and Muslims are abducting and enslaving large numbers of young fatherless welfare girls.

The Cathedral thinks it can convert Muslims in the same way it has been so successful in converting Christians, persuading them that all religions, rightly understood, are progressivism.

See also Scott Alexanders triumphalist exposition that progressivism is simply western culture, and everyone naturally converts to progressivism western culture because it so much nicer and more humane and wiser and better and truer than any of the alternatives.

In fact progressivism sucks, and men suffer terribly under it, for it is brutally contrary to human nature, and unless you actively crush Islam the way the Cathedral actively and aggressively crushed, and continues to actively aggressively crush, Christianity, it is not going to absorb Muslims. Rather we see the reverse happening. Aggressive Muslims get pussy and the girls are glad of it. The Cathedral defines Christianity as misogyny, hatred, homophobia, and so on and so forth, and crushes it with unrelenting ruthlessness, but is disinclined to do this to Islam, because islam is brown, and browns can never be racist, misogynist, or homophobic. Also because if it went after Islam the way it goes after Christianity, Muslims would start cutting the throats of progressives.

The Cathedral has had some considerable success at converting Muslims to progressivism, as for example Iran. Turkey, however, has definitively put an end to the program in Turkey.

For a long time it looked as if the Cathedral program, educate Muslims into understanding that Islam, rightly understood, was progressivism, seemed to be succeeding. And then we started to see head scarves all over the place.

As the Cathedral became ever more hostile, hateful, and destructive towards males and masculinity, coming to a supposedly right understanding of Islam became ever less popular among Muslims, and we started to see those headscarves multiply.

The Cathedral rationalized away the ever expanding sea of headscarves. For a while it was still possible to believe that the Cathedral program could succeed, the Hillary could bring in a hundred million male military age Muslims screaming for infidel blood and white pussy, they would convert to progressivism, they would buy homes in green leafy suburbs with affirmative action mortgages, pay their mortgages, and replace the missing grandchildren to pay off social security.

This delusion was punctured at Benghazi in Libya:
Hillary:

“With all due respect, the fact is we had four dead Americans,” Clinton told him angrily. “Whether it’s because of a protest or whether a guy out for a walk decided to go kill some Americans, what difference at this point does it make?”

Well it would not make much difference whether because of a protest or whether a guy out for a walk. But it makes a huge difference that it was neither of these. It was a bunch of guys in military uniform, with military weapons, with chain of command, with military insignia of rank, equipped with the apparatus and institutions of a modern western state, that were, and are, applying this apparatus and these institutions to suppress progressivism and enforce Islam, in the way that Clinton and company have long been using this apparatus and these institutions to suppress Islam and enforce progressivism.

What was revealed at Benghazi, and has continued to be revealed ever since, is that the progressive program to convert Muslims to “moderate Islam” (aka progressivism) was entirely dependent on the efficient modern coercive apparatus of the modern state, and that it really is not working any more, even in the rapidly declining number of countries where progressives command the efficient modern coercive apparatus of the modern state. (Libya, and now Turkey, being among those were progressives have been removed from theocratic power.)