Archive for the ‘war’ Category

We won in Iraq

Friday, July 18th, 2008

Michael Yon declares the war over. He should know. He has been wandering around the place looking it over. But if we have a few more victories like this one, we will have lost, and Islam won. We cannot do Iran what we barely managed to do to Iraq, and still less can we do to Pakistan what we barely accomplished in Iraq. We are losing in Afghanistan, for it is not really a war in Afghanistan any more (that war we won long ago) but rather a war with our “ally” Pakistan.

“Governance in the Wilderness”

Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

“Governance in the Wilderness” is merely a retranslation of the same Al Quaeda document earlier translated as “the Management of Savagery” or “the Management of Barbarism”

The author concluded that 9/11 was unsuccessful, in that it failed to intimidate Americans, and the American retribution was severe. He correctly predicted that the attempt to set up a new Caliphate in Bahgdad was much premature, and would be defeated, as it was. He recommends large amounts of small scale intimidation, which prescription we see being very successfully applied in the Middle East, France, and England.

American empire is not working

Tuesday, July 8th, 2008

I have long argued that the US should focus on destroying its enemies and not attempt to hold ground. Global Guerrillas observes that

it was only when the Army/Marines attempted to hold ground that the US military ran into trouble. These advocates maintain that the US military should never hold ground in the future

Who are “these advocates”?

Britain falls

Saturday, July 5th, 2008

When the Roman empire in the west fell, it was decades, nearly a century, before Romans realized it had fallen. Falling is a process, which is hard to recognize at the time. A recent post in Gates of Vienna leads me to believe that in decades to come, future historians will date the fall of most of old Europe to Islam to 2008, or not long after.

The first step in subjecting Europe to dar al Islam is to establish liberated zones where the writ of the Christian state does not run. This is well under way in France, and is now beginning in England.

When state operatives, such as firemen, show their faces, they get thumped.  And if they want to show their faces without getting thump, they had best accept and enforce law acceptable to Islam. This produces, or in the near future will produce a number of benefits for the Muslims within such a zone. For example they won’t have to pay for electricity, nor pay rent to kaffirs, nor may kaffirs refuse to rent to them merely because of a well founded fear that no rent will be paid and no eviction will be possible. If a Muslim within such a zone commits crimes against kaffirs, police have little enthusiasm for looking into the matter, which situation will in future produce substantial benefits for Muslims at the expense of kaffirs, if it is not doing so already.

Hatred of softly influential groups

Tuesday, June 24th, 2008

Wherever a group has disproportionate economic or cultural success that does not rest upon political power, does not involve the ability to kill people and break things, does not depend upon hard power, for example Jews, Americans, Indonesian Chinese, Indian Fijians, Indians in Africa, the Ibo in Africa, the same hatred occurs, the same accusations, the same fantasies, the same excessive and disproportionate attention, the same concoction of utterly trivial grievances into supposedly enormous crimes – even if the disproportionately successful group and the less successful group have no previous history, but only encountered each other fairly recently. I observe that we also get such interesting phenomena as self hating members of the successful group – the psychopathologies so characteristic of Jews are also characteristic of other disproportionately successful and correspondingly hated groups.

This phenomenon is the inverse of Stockholm Syndrome. Stockholm Syndrome is that we are apt to love those who control us by fear and murder. Hatred of softly influential minorities, such as anti Americanism and hatred of overseas Chinese in various third world countries, is that we are apt to hate those whose intellectual creativity entertains or inspires us.

Amy Chua, author of the book “World on Fire”, which examines the problem of softly influential groups, under the demonizing and politically correct name “Dominant Minorities”, is a pretty good example of a self hating Filipino Chinese. It would seem that the Chinese sinned by being industrious and successful, and therefore the system that allowed them to succeed is supposedly to blame for bringing repression upon them in the Philippines, and massacre upon them in Indonesia.

There are a great many diverse newly affluent ethnic groups, among them the overseas Chinese of various Asian countries. An ethnic group succeeds, perhaps because of genetic superiority, perhaps because of a culture that encourages education, thrift and hard work, and so people hate that ethnic group – hate Amy’s ethnic group among others. Her analysis of the problem is absolutely accurate and spot on, though of course her implied solution – a political elite that imposes equality on all the non elite – has failed disastrously. She sees, and explains in detail, that her ethnic group is in the same hole as the Jews, and as a great many other similar groups, correctly analyzing the problem that afflicts overseas Chinese and Jews and many other groups as a single problem with many groups and many examples. The flaw in her analysis is the self hating and politically correct phrase “dominant minority”.

The groups she is talking about are not dominant, rather they possess soft power. If Americans wandered around shooting people to force obedience, everyone would love them, but Americans are hated because they persuade people to drink coca cola and watch terminator movies.

Similarly Hitler, a failed artist, was primarily enraged by the influence of Jewish plays and art. When people complain that America rules the world, they really complaining that they watch American movies, and thus people are playing attention to Americans instead of themselves.

The correct description of the problem is “non coercive influence”, and “softly influential group” Non coercive influence, soft power, is what a softly influential group possesses, and it makes that group hated. Dominant minorities are often loved, and are never hated. The problem, rather is hatred of softly influential groups.

I observe that since the surge, since Americans flattened half of Fallujah, we have at last seen large numbers of Arabs clerics, all of them Iraqis, most of them not very far from Fallujah, preaching genuinely moderate Islam, and large numbers of Arab intellectuals, a great many of them Iraqis, arguing for moderate and realistic behavior by Arabs and Arab countries, accurately perceiving the faults of Islam and the Arabs. The American attempts to directly build a state were all miserable failures, and continue to be so, but when the Americans showed persistence in slaying their enemies, there was considerably greater willingness to examine American ideas and beliefs honestly and thoughtfully. Arab intellectuals and clerics changed their position, and we now increasingly hear from Arabs that Arabs have problems because their society has something wrong with it, not because the outsiders are holding them down. Seeing that Americans would fight and not yield made in much easier for Arabs to understand and agree with the Americans, though I think Americans could have made the same point at considerably less cost to themselves.

The critical variable is hard power, and hard power is the costs you can inflict on others. If a softly influential minority exercises sufficient hard power – that is to say, hurts enough people and destroys enough wealth, or demonstrates willingness and ability to do so – irrational hostility diminishes among those people who are potentially vulnerable to being hurt, and the softly influential group becomes able to make its case intellectually, able to win hearts and minds through persuasion and good deeds. The good deeds are only appreciated from people who can and do also do bad deeds.

Not only is the group less hated, but it less apt to hate themselves. Not so very long ago Americans were having orgasms of guilt because a guard at Gitmo tortured a poor helpless terrorist by pissing a short distance upwind of a Koran. Today Americans have flattened half of Fallujah and no one gets indignant.

When Americans knocked down a few dozen houses in Fallujah and killed a few people, there was a big outcry about the Fallujah massacre, just as there was about the Jenin massacre when Jews knocked down a few houses and killed a few people.

But when Americans came back a couple of years later and proceed the flatten half of Fallujah and kill a great big pile of people, not only are Fallujans fine with that, but more importantly, Americans are fine with that. If you google, you will still get five times more hits on Jenin massacre than on Fallujah massacre, and most, probably all of the hits for Fallujah massacre are for much smaller events from long ago where Americans were doing very little damage to people or property. When Americans rolled their sleeves up and really started killing people and breaking things in vast numbers, then there was no more talk of “Fallujah massacre” – not from Arabs, not from Europeans, and not from Americans.

The solution to the problem that Amy so accurately describes is the Fallujah solution, the opposite of the solution she inaccurately prescribes. The answer to irrational hatred is to hurt people and break things. Since the hatred is irrational, crazy, and self destructive, a sufficiently hurtful and destructive response to hatred snaps people out of their madness, and creates an environment where communication and good deeds can work, as is happening in Fallujah and Anbar province.

Of course, that strategy can also lead to holy war, if people incorrectly evaluate other people’s legitimate grievances as irrational, crazy, and self destructive, but what we are seeing in Iraq is the quenching of holy war, with, to my great surprise, a massive outbreak of moderate Islam, We are not seeing any signs of a functional democracy or national unity, which was supposed to be the mechanism that would supposedly produce moderate Islam, but we are seeing moderate Islam despite, or perhaps because of, the severe disfunction of the institutions that were supposed to encourage it.

How much hard power is required? Small doses are counter productive, merely giving people superficially rational excuses for their irrational hatred. Gitmo produced the insane hysteria about torturing a prisoner by pissing upwind of a Koran, making the problem worse, not better. The Fallujah sized dose, however, has had dramatic good effects in Fallujah and noticeable good effect in America, winning the hearts and minds not only of Fallujans, but of Americans.

Bring back the Northern Alliance

Saturday, June 21st, 2008

The US is winning in Iraq, in large part by abandoning or indefinitely postponing the goal of a unitary state, and cultivating the militias, such as “the Sons of Iraq” (who are more like the sons of Arab Shia Iraq) Afghanistan, however, is going down the tubes.

According to Gideon Rachman

  1. Our current strategy isn’t working
  2. There are no real alternative strategies
  3. We cannot afford to lose.

There is of course an obvious alternative strategy:

The Northern Alliance took care of the Taliban just fine.

Bring back the warlords, the local militias, the armed congregations with serious theological disagreements with Al Quaeda and the Taliban. Fund them, arm them, give them ground to air missiles. Hang the democratically elected Kabul government from the nearest trees. They hate us and we should hate them. A bit over fifty percent of the voters in Afghanistan hate us, probably near sixty percent. Arm the guys that don’t hate us, and give them air support.

The Taliban is winning not only because it receives military support from Pakistan and the Pakistani armed forces, but because it receives covert support from some elements of the elected government that it is at war with. Bush famously said “If you are not with us, you are against us” but many people are doing very well standing on both sides at once.

There can be no peace with dar al Islam

Monday, June 9th, 2008

There can be no peace with dar al-Islam.  In the long run, dar al-Harb must conquer or be conquered – and if dar al-Islam is to be the conquered, the conquered have to be colonized and displaced, as in the early days of Algeria and Israel.

The problem, the reason there can never be peace, is lucidly explained by Dhimmi Watch

Europe can’t stop anything

Thursday, June 5th, 2008

Michael Totten quotes a Serb:

“If Americans said they were no longer interested in Europe, it would be a catastrophe here.”

“You think?” Sean said.

“Yes,” David said, “because Europe can’t stop anything.”

The military weakness and incapacity of Europe in Serbia startled the Serbs, even more than America’s capacity stunned them. Since then, Europe’s martial weakness has been on display in one humiliating debacle after another. Recall Britain’s startling display of fear, weakness, cowardice, and dhimmitude in the Persian gulf.

All that wealth, and no capacity to defend it. The vultures are circling.

For a state to exist, it has to be able to destroy those that oppose it, or might oppose it, to inflict famine and ruin on hostile populations, has to be able burn the crops and flatten the cities, after the manner of General Sherman, and has to have confident belief, a belief shared by officers and men, that it is right to do so.

To do this, it needs some source of cohesion. It cannot provide its own cohesion. Pay and threats will not work to motivate soldiers, for when things go bad, when your soldiers most need motivation, these motivations cannot function, for nothing will motivate people impose the discipline.

The usual source or cohesion is ethnic identity: the nation state. Other sources of cohesion are religion, as for example the various theocratic states, such as the caliphate, and ideology, as for example the American revolution and the various communist coups.

So if a state’s cohesion came from ethnicity, then when it goes multicultural, then its soldiers and police are fighting for pay and pension and nothing more, and then it is are doomed. Similarly, when the last shreds of liberty are crushed out in the US, when the second amendment is utterly gone, and little left of the first amendment, US troops will be fighting for pay and pension and nothing more and then the US will be doomed.

Global Guerrilas reports that Mexico and Nigeria are falling, as bandits, revolutionaries, and suchlike take possession of the Mexican drug trade, and bandits, revolutionaries, Islamists, and suchlike take possession of Nigeria’s oil. But there is a lot more available for the stealing in Europe.

If the Nigerian or Mexican government goes, the Pentagon should secure the oil, but will not be able to do so without will and belief that it is right to do so. That would require an ideology that it reasonable to protect the private property rights of American and allied businessmen – which argument will not fly when they threw them to the wolves long ago, when long ago they allowed the oil and the oil rigs to be stolen by governments that are now failing.

Winning in Iraq

Monday, June 2nd, 2008

It is now apparent that the US is winning in Iraq. It is so apparent that even the Washington Post reports it – to the considerable surprise of both myself and others

What then is winning? What does victory mean? (more…)

Terror works

Friday, May 23rd, 2008

Before the twentieth century, the usual method for suppressing guerrilla war was artificial famine, state sponsored mass rape, and mass murder. During the twentieth century the communists used these methods heavily to quell not only resistance, but to quell resentment, to quell suspected politically incorrect thoughts. These methods generated curiously little resentment. Indeed, it seems that the greater the injury, the less the hostility. Certainly that is how things worked out for the communists. (more…)