This time they did ring a bell at the bottom

May 21st, 2008

You know the saying about markets: “They don’t ring a bell at the top or the bottom”

The bell has just rang to announce the bottom of the housing market in California. From here on out, the prices are going up from insanely high to even more insanely high. Never again will ordinary affluent middle class people be able to buy a house in silicon valley, until the day dawns when the private property right to develop land is once again respected.

Various incompetently run or criminally run banks found themselves with lots and lots and lots of inflated and fraudulent mortgages. In due course, they found themselves with the real estate that was securing the mortgage. In the last few days they have held auctions in Silicon Valley and Sacramento to get rid of the properties. The properties sold like hotcakes, with bidders bidding them up, and up, and up.

Meaning of Hezbollah offensive in Lebanon

May 21st, 2008

On May 9, Hezbollah fighters were wandering around Lebanon. The meaning and implications of these events were not clear at the time. No one, least of all Hezbollah, had a clear idea.

Now it is clear what happened.

The Lebanese state is a failed state. It lacks the will and capability to fight the various armed groups in Lebanon, or to impose its will on them. Hezbollah tested the government. The government was an empty bag. It tested the major Sunni party, with the same result. It tested the major Druze parties, which likewise collapsed, but the Druze did not collapse, instead inflicting a nasty defeat on Hezbollah. After running into trouble with the Druze, it declined to firmly test the Christians. The government has shown itself powerless, and the political parties that focused on elections, parliament, and participation in the government have similarly shown themselves to be powerless.

Genocidal famine still planned

May 18th, 2008

At present, Environmental Protection Agency rules require that that Americans convert food that could feed five hundred million people into fuel. But this is not enough. The rules require that it be increased five fold over the next fifteen years.

Europe is falling

May 15th, 2008

Observe in this video the British police are as frightened and weak before Muslims, as the British police are terrifying and dominating over Britishers in other videos.  The British state is as contemptible to its enemies as it is terrifying to its subjects.

The fear and weakness we see in this video, we also saw when the Iranians over ran the British in the Persian gulf, and when the British fled before the Shia militias in Basra.

In this video, the Muslims rule the streets, and not only are the British frightened, weak, ashamed, and apologetic, but the British police, normally so arrogant, violent, and destructive, normally filled with brutal contempt for the merely law abiding middle class British civilians, are frightened, weak, ashamed, and apologetic.

The British state that has such contempt for Britishness, that it confidently will remake the British in its own image, in this video shows its true weakness and shame before Islam.

Exxon blows it

May 14th, 2008

Bryan Caplan wonders if oil prices are a bubble.

When oil spikes abruptly, that means people made incorrect investment decisions – under invested in exploration, development, and gas to liquids conversion.

A simple back of the envelope calculation tells me they are still under investing. Exxon recently abandoned gas to liquids plant that would be profitable if oil remains above forty dollars to fifty dollars a barrel. But if everyone acts like that – and everyone is acting like that – oil is going to be way above fifty a barrel.

Do I hear someone saying “Hey. Do you think you are lot smarter than the guys running Exxon?”

It is quite simple.  For the price of oil to remain stable at present levels, we need to accommodate China’s industrialization by producing a lot more oil each year.  The planned increases in oil production add up to peanuts.  So the price of oil is heading up, and going to stay up.

Mark Steyn predicts the end of Israel

May 14th, 2008

These days friends and enemies alike smell weakness at the heart of the Zionist Entity

“Arabs will soon be demanding one democratic state — Jews and Muslims — from Jordan to the sea. And even those who understand that this will mean the death of Israel will find themselves so confounded by the multicultural pieties of their own lands they’ll be unable to argue against it.”

Bush’s idea of exporting democracy to Muslim lands has turned out to be a disaster. World War II was against theoretically against nation state dictatorships. This war is a holy war. Our enemies can win elections, and frequently do.

Vote Obama

May 13th, 2008

The presidents that have done the most to smash capitalism have never been Democrats, because anti capitalist Democrat presidents have always found themselves paralyzed by gridlock – the pro capitalist faction unites along party lines, and the federal government system locks up, as it was designed to do. The founding fathers intentionally constructed the federal government so that it would be slow and inefficient at making large controversial changes.

The greatest catastrophes for capitalism have come from the anticapitalist Republican presidents, Nixon and Hoover, because they could get “bipartisan” anticapitalist measures through congress.

Environmentalists have always intended global warming as a justification installing a socialist command and control economy. McCain has just unveiled a global warming plan, theoretically market based, but in fact not in the slightest market based, a command and control plan which is the socialists wet dream. He calls it market based, but this merely means that bureaucrats will be able to blame markets for the chaos they create. The only role of the market in the plan is to be the guy that takes the fall. As Brutally Honest says, McCaine has drunk the koolaide

Maybe Obama is just as anti capitalist, or even more anti capitalist than McCain, but if he is, he will face gridlock.

Genocide and environmentalism

May 11th, 2008

Bryan Caplan writes

When someone says “There are too many Jews,” we suspect that he wants to kill Jews. Similarly, it turns out that at the root of Hitler’s propensity to kill people was his belief that there are too many people.

And if you’re tempted to say that Hitler proposed a barbaric solution for a real problem, take a look at how Germany actually did feed its population since 1945: increasing agricultural productivity and increasing exports. The two methods that Hitler dismissed out of hand transformed Germany into one of the richest nations in history.

Religions that command human sacrifice are good at providing power to their priesthood. Thus we see the first greenie famine being welcomed with delight by the true believers, much as they previously welcomed the return of malaria.

Environmentalists confidently state with immense confidence all sorts of “facts”, most of which are impossible to meaningfully test, some of which can be easily tested, and which test false – which test does not impair the confidence of the environmentalists in the slightest, just as the obviouse falsehood of the Christian doctrine of transubstantiation does not trouble those Christians who believe in it in the slightest.

Two obvious and extreme example are:

  1. the much repeated “fact” that we are in the middle of a vast mass extinction, that ten thousand species go extinct every year. Ask any greenie to name a species that has recently gone extinct. He will not be able to answer, and will be entirely untroubled by his inability to answer.
  2. the much repeated “fact” that the ice is melting, even though satellites show that the area of the world under ice has not changed significantly since satellites have been observing.

When environmentalist “scientists” report the disappearance of ice, they are not in fact reporting the disappearance of physical corporeal ice and snow, the stuff that causes your car to slide, and has to be shovelled off the path, the stuff that is apt to sink ships at sea. What they are really reporting is the disappearance of magic ice, the spirit of the ice, Gaia’s infusion of spirituality into a frozen wilderness that they contemplate from the comfort of Starbucks. Hence their total indifference to physical evidence. The holy ice, which is melted merely by man’s unholy gaze is disappearing, even though the merely physical ice continues to endanger shipping in pretty much the same places as it has for the last century or so.

Similarly when environmentalist “scientists” report that the polar bear is endangered, they are entirely indifferent to actual numbers of polar bears. Far from being endangered, polar bears, like deer, a pest and a hazard. Rather, because they raid garbage dumps, because they have become a pest and a hazard, the holy spirit of wild nature of which the holy bear is a manifestation, is in danger of going extinct.

Global sea ice

May 8th, 2008

One measure of world temperature that is relatively objective is the total amount of ice. It is hard to measure average world temperature precisely, hard even to say what such an average means, and those that claim to measure it with great precision over great periods of time are liars, but ice, ice is a fact.

And so, from time to time, one gets an anthropogenic warming story, “Oh no the ice is melting”.

Another Record Arctic Ice Melt Expected This Summer

Whenever you read such a story, check the total amount of ice. It does not change much, and has not changed much. Some times it goes up a bit, sometimes down a bit. When ice melts dramatically in one place at one time it usually freezes up in another place not very long afterwards. Today, it is pretty much the same as ever it was.

Which very much suggests that the world’s temperature has not changed much – that global warming, whether anthropogenic or not, is so small as to be unmeasurable compared to ordinary year to year and decade to decade fluctuations.

We have not had a really good direct measure of global temperature until the Aqua satellite was launched. And since the Aqua satellite was launched, we have had no “global warming”.

Before Aqua, the best way to estimate changes in global temperature was to look at proxies such as total ice coverage – and the proxies have been telling us that nothing much has changed.

Muslim moderates sighted

May 7th, 2008

Question:

How can you tell a Muslim moderate?

Answer:

His throat is cut from ear to ear.

Iraq the model” reports a large bunch of moderates from Iraq, but a severe shortage of them from anywhere else. The question then is: is it safe to be a moderate in Iraq because US troops have created a democracy, or is it safe to be a moderate in Iraq because the country is still under US occupation and US troops are apt to arrest Iraqi leaders who misbehave?

The Long War Journal” reports that the Iraqi government is corrupt, and that if the US were to withdraw tomorrow, there would be civil war, so I am inclined to bet on the latter – that it is possible for a Muslim to be a moderate in Iraq because the place is still substantially under US martial law.